EU Council on Brexit and China

The European Council meeting of yesterday and today was not an easy affair. But it went well. The Heads of State and Government have shown a deep commitment to the discussions. They could agree on a response to Theresa May’s request for a delay in the Brexit date – and this was a very delicate matter, that took many hours to be discussed – and on an approach towards China. In both cases, the twin concerns were to keep the EU united and, at the same time, to leave the door open for a balanced relationship.

The member States might have different views about important issues. However, no one wants to rock the boat. And all understand that by reaching a common understanding about their shared interests they can then have a clear - and stronger - position towards the outside world. Collectively, their interests are leveraged. 

Again about Europe and Africa

My presentation of yesterday at the European Political Strategy Centre, a think tank directed attached to the President of the European Commission, was about the future of the partnership between Europe and Africa. The conference room filled up. Very senior people from the Commissioners’ Cabinets and from the External Action Service and Development Cooperation attended and asked questions, at the end of my long introductory speech. 

I could notice that there is a genuine interested in establishing a more constructive rapport between the Continents. I think I can say these key people understand that both regions will continue to be closely linked, for good or for bad, notwithstanding the heavy presence of new players in the African scene. In that case, it is better to deepen the cooperation and do it along strategic lines and with goals that respond to the interests of Europe and Africa. For this, a frank process of dialogue, at different levels of authority, is essential. The question is not whether one is hopeful or pessimist about the future. The point is to be very much aware of the immense challenges that both sides face and see how they can be addressed through shared values and joint action.

Europe and Africa

In my discussion today with senior EU officials, I asked them  to take home 7 major issues:

1.     Population explosion

 .   State legitimacy and Human Security

3.     Understanding State Fragility

4.     Livestock: do not leave behind the shepherds

5.     The Dragon has a plan: China in Africa

6.     Dialogue, dialogue, dialogue, supported by the EU and Member States diplomatic / trade / security machineries

7.     Tell the story: keep repeating the appropriate narratives. Be frank and positive

Sometimes, it is necessary to say no

I fear a people that values blind obedience. And history has demonstrated how far blind obedience can take us on the road to tragedy.

Responding to Germany and to AKK

AKK, full name, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the new leader of the CDU governing party in Germany, is more concerned with the growing influence of the AfD – Alternative for Germany, the extreme-right, ultranationalist party – than with European affairs. That explains, to a very large extent, the way she responded to Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance proposals. She was above all writing to her constituency within CDU and to many of those voters that have decided to move their support to AfD during the last few years. One of the things she must achieve is to bring that support back to CDU. Her leadership is a lot about that objective.

All that is fine. We know that party politics is primarily a domestic matter. However, AKK’s approach is not a balanced one. Germany is a key player within the EU. As such, it ought to show leadership and ambition on European matters. That is particularly needed now, when the European elections are already taking shape in the near horizon and a new leading team will take over in Brussels and be directing the institutions for the next five years. Moreover, this is a time of major political challenges, both within Europe and in the international scene. Internally, Europe as a project is seriously questioned by a bad mixture of populist sentiments and national fragilities. Externally, the risks to European interests are many, complex, simultaneous and compound. They come from some neighbours – these are always the most dangerous threats. But in the connected world we live in, the concept of neighbourhood needs to be reassessed. And the threats also come from unsettling changes of policy at the level of our traditional allies.

There is thus plenty of room to be leader about. That should be one of the messages to be sent back to Germany and to AKK.

Christchurch, New Zealand

The terrorist attacks against the people attending religious services in two Christchurch mosques must be condemned with the strongest words possible. There is no room for ambiguities. This type of violence is abhorrent to the most fundamental values the modern societies share. It should have no place in today’s world.

Racism of any kind, terrorism of any nature, blind killings of innocent people, these are some of the most heinous crimes one can commit. They must be punished with the appropriate severity. And the leaders must say and do the right things that can give comfort to the victims and their families and help to restore the confidence within the communities.

In New Zealand, the Prime Minister has been exemplary in the way she has responded to this very traumatic crisis. Congratulations to PM Jacinda Ardern. And also our deepest sympathies to all concerned, those directly affected and the people of New Zealand.

Good news from Guinea-Bissau

We don’t write about Guinea-Bissau. T is never in the news. It’s one of those lost lands, somewhere in the map of Africa. Some better-informed people know the country is very undeveloped and that poverty has been compounded by serious political turmoil for over twenty years. And that’s about it.

But this time, the news coming from Bissau is encouraging. The country went through general elections this past Sunday. The process was credible enough. And a governing coalition is taking shape.

I can only hope that this will bring the much-needed political stability Guinea-Bissau needs. And I leave here a word of support.  

Keeping the EU project together

For those who have not yet understood it – also for those who might have lost sight of it –, it seems important to remember that the safeguard of the European common project is a paramount goal and a topmost concern. Anything that might threaten the unity of the project – and its coherence – will be fought.

That’s the way leaders have been looking at the Brexit saga, a process that, notwithstanding the confusion that prevails in the British Parliament, should be completed as negotiated. And without any significant delay. The departure of the United Kingdom is regrettable, no doubt. But it has been the choice of the British people and that choice must be implemented without menacing the integrity of the EU.

There is no concession to be made when that integrity is at stake.

Brexit, stage two. Next, please!

Theresa May lost the vote again, for a second time. And I would add, we, the Europeans, have also been defeated. It is in our common interest, for the British side and our own, in the EU, to have a properly organised exit and a transition period that is as smooth as possible. Anything else, specially a no-deal situation, would be a major shock. It would have an extremely negative impact on both economies and would bring serious disruptions to a relationship that has many dimensions and is very deep.

I am sure that the message that will come out of tomorrow’s vote at Westminster will be very clear. No deal is not a solution, that will be the outcome of the vote. Brexit, yes, but with an agreement, that will certainly be the Parliamentarians decision.

It will become pressing clear in the next weeks that there is a possible deal on the table. That’s the one that failed to pass today and had already been voted against two months ago. My guess, as a possible way out, is that Theresa May and the Europeans leaders will massage the draft deal once more and add a few lines to an extra new document. Then, Theresa May will bring it back to Westminster for a third round of votes. And, to our surprise, the House will go for it. 

What I am suggesting is an adaptation of the rule of three, the famous belief that a trio of events is more humorous, satisfying, or effective than just two.

These are very new times, a unique moment in the European history, and we can expect the implausible. 

Macron and the Germans

The CDU Leader’s response to Emmanuel Macron shows there is a big gap between the German right-wing vision of Europe’s future and the more centrist proposals made by the French President. And, in many ways, the CDU’s views, as expressed by Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, reflect the opinion we can find in the German streets.

They also send a clear message to Macron. We can cooperate but we do not belong to the same political family. And we, Germans, we lead our grouping of parties in the European institutions.

Macron must feel a bit alone tonight.