Europe and its disagreements on migrations

Europe adrift in the sea of migrations

Victor Ângelo

 

A meeting of the European Union's ministers of foreign affairs and internal administration on migration was held this week at the initiative of the Portuguese presidency. The previous one had taken place in 2015, when more than a million people arrived in Europe from Syria and other parts of the Middle East, Afghanistan, and the countries of the Indian subcontinent, as well as Africa. The long gap between the two meetings happened because migration is an extraordinarily complex and fractious issue among EU member states. Leaders have systematically swept the imbroglio under the rug.

Now the meeting was a new attempt to define a common policy. There were some generic statements about the need for a comprehensive and coherent response that combines development and security partnerships with the migrants' countries of origin and transit, that opens avenues for controlled migration, that prioritizes political relations with North Africa and West Africa. All very vague and at the level of mere lapalissades. The result was, once again, below expectations.

The Mediterranean Agenda proposed in February by the European Commission, which was one of the reference documents, is equally imprecise. It lumps together completely different national realities, as if the Mediterranean geopolitical space were homogeneous. And it does not make a critical balance of the past. It suggests continuing and deepening a cooperation model that, in reality, has failed to help transform any state in the region into either a prosperous or democratic nation.

The fact is that there is no common position beyond strengthening Frontex as the European Coast Guard and border police. That is the only accepted and shared responsibility, the lowest common denominator. As for the rest, everything else is business as usual. It will be managed by chance events. The countries of entry of illegal immigrants will continue to have to bear the political, humanitarian, and economic costs that result from receiving those who arrive there. Despite the repeated appeal by the Portuguese Minister of Internal Administration, there will be no solidarity among Europeans in this matter.

The great truth is that most member-states do not want to receive new waves of immigrants coming from other geographies and unfamiliar cultures. Even countries that have traditionally been the destination of Maghrebian, African and other immigrants share this position. We, the Portuguese, are a little on the outside. We do not really understand the weight of migratory pressure on the cohesion of the social fabric of big cities in France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, for example. Nor do we have a clear notion of the political impact of the presence of vast foreign communities, when they are not integrated into the societies that received them, thus being an argument easily exploited by right-wing extremists and potential terrorists. 

Europe will continue to speak constructively and act restrictively, even repressively, on this issue. International migration is one of the most complex dilemmas facing us, but one that many Europeans do not want to consider. Despite the progress of tolerance values, we are not fully prepared for the diversity of cultures and faces. Anyone in doubt should visit the new ethnic ghettos that exist in certain European metropolises. And without going any further, you can start with certain outskirts of Lisbon.

We have already seen that the sea is not enough of a barrier for those who are desperate or dream of a better life. But since the intention of those in charge is to stop population movements that seem threatening, Europe will go further. It will pour fortunes into countries that have the potential to send us new waves of migrants - as is already happening with Turkey. It is a carrot and stick gamble. Now, in these countries, the powerful always get the carrot, and the poor and the weak always get the stick. For this reason, many seek to flee to Europe.

(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published yesterday in the Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper)

Fighting for a changed approach to security in conflict zones

Following what I wrote yesterday about the national armies in some of the Sahelian countries – that their low operational capacity is one of the key problems, on top of their human rights shortcomings and other serious governance issues – I was reminded by a friend of the example of Somalia. The international community, including European resources, have been engaged in the country for a long time with little results. Billions have been spent and many lives lost. However, the terrorists are all over, including in the capital city. And the national army, that we all have trained and keep repeating is essential to solve the insecurity threats, has a fighting capacity that is estimated at 8%. That means that almost everyone in the army is not prepared to fight an asymmetric war and cannot collect the intelligence needed to crush the terrorist cells. Or, there are two fundamental dimensions of any stabilisation project. They are not enough but if they do not happen nothing else can be achieved.

That’s why I keep repeating that we must look at these matters with frankness and be clear about what is going on and what needs to change. If we fail to do it, if we keep pretending and talk niceties, we will keep investing in the sand of those vast deserts. We will be wasting resources and lives. And we will be undermining the credibility of the international institutions and other players that are operating in such contexts. Can’t we find the courage to shift our approach?

The Sahel and its major challenges

The poor people in the Sahelian countries are now facing three major menaces to their survival: terrorism, covid-19, and hunger. All three are growing by the day. And I was listening to reports coming from the region, I thought the people are very resilient and combative. They do not give up. But the combination of these three threats is an immense challenge. I noticed that Africa was mentioned in today’s EU summit. The European leaders know what is going on in Africa, in particular in the Sahel region. But they must take the initiative in the international fora to mobilise exceptional support for the Continent. Medical assistance and food should be prioritised. They are much easier to deal with than the security dimensions. However, security cannot be ignored. It has become a major issue.

Iran, West Africa and the info war game

We are witnessing the emergence of a new campaign against Iran that includes “information” about that country’s growing presence in West Africa, the Sahel and Sudan. It basically says that, following data available to certain security agencies – not named –, Iran is engaged in building a network of terrorist cells in those regions of Africa. Those cells would later be activated against Western interests in the countries concerned.

I have known these corners of Africa for decades. And I have several friends in positions of authority in the area, including in matters of internal security. There is indeed a serious increase of radical activities and armed groups over there. But their link with Iran seems very unlikely. Certainly, very difficult to prove. Those radicals are inspired by Sunni fundamentalism, whilst Iran is a Shiite proponent of Islam.

What I have noticed, and my friends have confirmed, is that the new radicalism in that belt of Africa is mainly supported by groups and mosques based in Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, especially in Qatar, as well as in Pakistan. In addition, there is also some influence coming from Egypt.

Good news from Guinea-Bissau

We don’t write about Guinea-Bissau. T is never in the news. It’s one of those lost lands, somewhere in the map of Africa. Some better-informed people know the country is very undeveloped and that poverty has been compounded by serious political turmoil for over twenty years. And that’s about it.

But this time, the news coming from Bissau is encouraging. The country went through general elections this past Sunday. The process was credible enough. And a governing coalition is taking shape.

I can only hope that this will bring the much-needed political stability Guinea-Bissau needs. And I leave here a word of support.  

Sahel and the Islamist threat

Another link on the Sahel security situation:

https://africacenter.org/spotlight/the-complex-and-growing-threat-of-militant-islamist-groups-in-the-sahel/

The Sahel is important

https://www.securityconference.de/en/media-library/munich-security-conference-2019/video/parallel-panel-discussion-security-in-the-sahel-traffick-jam/

The link will bring us to the panel discussion on the situation in the Sahel that took place today at the Munich Security Conference. 

Bringing the bullies together

When I scrutinise the foreign policies of permanent members of the UN Security Council I find no real differences, when it comes to the pursuit of their national interests. Each one of the five States is ready and willing to make use of force and go beyond the diplomatic conventions, tread into illegality, when its leaders think that the country´s national interests are at play. That´s particularly true for each country´s area of influence and strategic importance. It´s the case with China in the South China Sea, with Russia in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea, the US in Syria and Iran, the UK in West Africa and the Gulf Cooperation countries in the Persian shores, and with France in the Sahel Region of Africa.

The strategic options of these powerful countries take the primacy over the workings of the UN or other international organisations. It´s a fact, as well, that some of them do it more often than others. But when necessary, they will go for it. Norms and international law are to be respected as long as they do not collide with the views, ambitions and vital interests of the big five.

The primary role of the UN Secretary-General and other international voices, as well as the leaders of some key States such as India or Japan or South Africa, is to constantly recall the international norms and obligations. But it is also to look for points of equilibrium among the interests of the permanent members. Their critical geopolitical interests are known. The challenge is to negotiate taking them into account.

Jammeh must go

Following Yahya Jammeh´s tragic volte-face, who has now changed his views on last week´s presidential elections and declared he will not accept the results, the UN Security Council met today to discuss the explosive situation The Gambia is now confronted with. The meeting was called at the request of Senegal, a country that surrounds The Gambia and has a very similar ethnic mix.

The Council has decided that Jammeh has no other option but to acknowledge the legitimacy of the election and move aside, for the winner to be sworn in with no undue delay.

This is not going to be easy to implement. Jammeh does not seem prepared to be reasonable. He is afraid of retribution and legal accusations, if he moves out of the State House.

In the circumstances, he should be offered political asylum elsewhere outside The Gambia. That should be the line of negotiations. It would facilitate the transition to democracy.

Where could he find asylum? That´s for the leaders of the region to decide and negotiate with the receiving state and Jammeh. But there are some countries that could be approached. For instance, Morocco and Saudi Arabia. 

The importance of the Electoral Commissions

Still on Gambia´s presidential elections, I owe a word of great recognition to the chairman of country´s Independent Electoral Commission, Mr. Alieu Momar Njie. I have seen many elections from a very close range. And I know that the chairmanship of the electoral commissions makes the difference. Just before the declaration of the results, Njie was for a while under very serious stress and hard pressure. But he demonstrated to be a strong and honest chairman. Unfortunately, that is not always the case, in similar situations. Therefore, it is tremendously important to mention his example.  

Democracy in action: The Gambia

I spent about five years in The Gambia, from 1989 to 1994. I had an excellent relationship with the national authorities in Banjul and also with a good number of traditional leaders, in many rural areas. The country was moving up, mainly because of tourism and trade with neighbouring Senegal and other countries in the vicinity. The young people had a good knowledge of English in addition to the national and regional languages.

I left the country one month before the military takeover. The coup came as a surprise. The national army was small and very young. It had been in contact with the Nigerian military during their joint UN peacekeeping assignments in Liberia. And they got some bad ideas.

The leader of the coup, Yahya Jammeh, became Head of State. With the passing of the years, he changed into the category of crazy dictator, like some we have seen in Africa and other parts of the world. His views turned into bizarre beliefs and his actions into violent oppression.

But in the soul of many Gambians, there had been planted a seed of freedom and democracy. And they also had the example of Senegal, next door, a twin nation and a much bigger brother. Senegal might have known many difficulties during the last twenty-five years or so, but the people kept a fighting spirit. The Gambians too.

And now they have voted Yahya Jammeh out of the presidency. They have opened a new phase in their future. There is hope again, after more than two decades of despair. I see this as an example that must be talked about.

As we should also talk about Jammeh, who understood the sense of the vote and has accepted his defeat. That´s remarkable for a man that was convinced he was in power for life.

Life is indeed full of surprises. In the case of The Gambia, this has been a magnificent one.

Mali: a matter of serious concern

After a discussion this morning with a Malian friend, who is a former senior UN official, what I retained can be easily summarised in a few words: a failed political process and damaging high level corruption.

Basically, this means that unless the domestic leaders and the international community representatives address these two fundamental issues there will be no peace, stability and economic revival in the foreseeable future. And the country will remain dangerously insecure, dramatically poor and a major source of illegal immigration.

I do not think we can expect much of the current national leadership if we do not discuss the situation frankly with them. This is no time for us, the outside friends of Mali, to be ambiguous. We are required to be frank, courageous but also practice good diplomatic judgement.

Who should take the lead in the policy dialogue, as far as the international community is concerned?

Terrorism in Ouagadougou

Another day, another terrorist attack. This time the target is an international hotel in Ouagadougou, the capital of Burkina Faso. In the evening, there were a couple of explosions outside the hotel and then a group of armed men stormed the facility. At this stage it is still a developing crisis. I am afraid it will end as a very tragic event.

Burkina Faso is a good example in Africa. The country has just completed a democratic transition. Elections were disputed with fair play and the results accepted by everyone. A new President and a fresh government have just been inaugurated. All seems very promising in a country that has a very young population, well educated and where the religious and ethnic diversity has not been played by the politicians. It is a pretty tolerant and open society.

It is also next door to Mali and part of the Sahel region. These are very sensitive areas.

Tonight´s sad events in Ouagadougou are just a reminder, a very dramatic one, of the dangers that many countries are facing these days. The fight against terrorism is now one of the top priorities and does call for an international supporting mechanism. Countries like Burkina Faso need and deserve such support. 

Burkina Faso must return to the democratic path

Burkina Faso is one of the better educated countries in West Africa. And its population is young and dynamic. There is in addition a good sense of national identity and cohesiveness. It is therefore unacceptable to see the Presidential Guard take over the executive power, stop the transition to democratic rule and try to bring back the former President, Blaise Compaoré. The coup d´état, carried out a couple of days ago, must be condemned firmly by all the friends of such an interesting and promising country. It would be a serious disservice to Africa if France and others in the EU would be seen as hesitating in their condemnation of the coup. 

Guinea-Bissau is down the rocks once more

Guinea-Bissau is again on the rocks. Last night the President decided to fire the government. This was an unjustified decision – and dramatically wrong from the constitutional and political perspectives – as this government had shown to be committed to bring the country out of two decades of a deep national crisis. This was actually a well performing government that had been commended by the donor group of countries at a recent meeting in Brussels.

I was in discussion today about the new situation over there. And my opinion was very clear. If you want to understand the President and his mistakes, please get in touch with his marabout. Like many powerful men in West Africa, the President is pretty insignificant in front of his marabout. The holy man dictates the President´s actions. 

Nigeria´s electoral process is moving better than anticipated

So far, so good! That´s the happy comment one can make tonight regarding the presidential elections in Nigeria. The process might have had some flaws but for now both key candidates seem prepared to accept the outcome of the elections. Outgoing President Goodluck Jonathan has surprised us with his mature acceptance of defeat. He has congratulate his opponent, the yet-to-be-officially declared winner, general Buhari. This is a great move by someone that has been a messy president but, in the end, has shown great sense of duty and a strong commitment to a peaceful transition in Nigeria. 

Guinea-Bissau

One of the forgotten countries is Guinea-Bissau, in West Africa. It has been in and out of crisis for the last seventeen years or so. Furthermore, it’s a tiny country with very little strategic interest. It was therefore easy to ignore it and to be blind to the plight of its population.

In Brussels today, after many years of hesitation, there has been a donors ‘meeting on Guinea-Bissau. The preliminary outcome is encouraging. The door for re-engagement has been open. The next step is to make sure that the commitments made by both sides, the government and the external partners, are indeed implemented. So often, these undertakings remain unfulfilled or are to slow to implement. And the blame game starts.

Let´s hope this time we will see a faster move. The people of Guinea-Bissau would certainly deserve it. 

Burkina Faso is a land of noble people

Burkina Faso is a fascinating country in the Sahel. Its people are very dynamic. Many citizens, particularly the urban youth, are very well educated. But like many countries in its part of the world, unemployment and lack of economic opportunities is a major feature. Young people go to school and from there go the streets, trying to scrap a living out of very little things.

The President and the elite have become very disconnected from the men and women on the streets. They live in relatively opulence and like to show it. Power has corrupted the leaders, starting with the President and his closer supporters. The President himself, a man who came to power after the assassination of his close friend Thomas Sankara, 27 years ago, - and some have always claimed that he is the one who killed Sankara, an idealist that was trying to change the country into a better place – is a very rich man. He believes he cannot leave the seat of power. He is afraid of investigations on his past actions, including the events of 27 years ago.

He tried to change the Constitution to remain President for the foreseeable future. His friends and also his adversaries told him that was a very serious mistake. People would not accept it.

Tonight, hiding somewhere, he might be thinking that the advice given to him was in the end the right one. But it is now too late for him, I believe.  

Ebola as a biological weapon?

The collective hysteria around Ebola is such that some people are already talking about the possibility of “enemy forces” being engaged in capturing the virus to make future use of it as a biological weapon. This is taking us too far. Why? What are we trying to achieve with such unfounded rumour?

And it is also a distraction when the main objective should remain to help West Africa to fight the epidemic. 

Ebola: Bring the resources to West Africa

I wrote my bi-weekly column to the Portuguese magazine Visão this morning. Everybody is writing about Ebola these days. I also did. It is the second time in recent weeks that I focus on this matter. I just felt it was necessary once more to emphasize that the fight against the epidemic ought to be fought in West Africa. Rich countries and permanent members of the UN Security Council have the duty of assistance. They should make all types of resources available. The disease has crushed the response capacities of Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone. These countries are in need of immediate help. And it is the duty of the developed world to assist. International solidarity is a key pillar of the new international order. We should insist on that. And also on the fact that we are saving lives. For now, it is the lives of West Africans. That´s a strong reason. But later on, if we are late to act, it could be our own lives, in our part of the world. And that´s also a strong reason for us to move without any further delay.