Dangerous radicalism in America

The American people are very divided when it comes to President Trump’s political performance. Such polarisation was especially visible yesterday, during the delivery of the State of the Union. The President’s style is very divisive. His policy is not about including as many segments of the American society as possible. It is about creating his own support base and keeping it loyal and militant. This approach leads to a profound radicalisation of politics. It’s a worrying option, because from radicalism to violence the distance is very short.

Tough times for the Democrats

The Democratic primary in Iowa has not been an auspicious beginning for the party’s presidential campaign. It has given a chance to the opposing camp to say the Democrats are messy and inefficient. President Trump has already started to shoot. He is very good at ridiculing his adversaries. One should not give him any space to do that.

This year’s presidential campaign is going to be particularly tough. All campaigns are very demanding, that’s true. But the current one could be extraordinarily nasty. Donald Trump knows how to fight a street fight. That’s is main strength. The Democratic side must be able to fight him both at that level and at the substantive level. In addition, it will require a constant attention to the mass communication side of things. The Democratic nominee must have an easy and pleasant TV presence. His or her communications team must be first class.

Not easy.

I am afraid we will keep seeing Donald Trump for a good number of years ahead.

Impeached

I am impressed by the presentations made so far by the House Impeachment Managers. They are building a serious case against President Trump. It is smart to repeatedly quote statements proffered in past occasions by those that today are dead against the impeachment.  

We all know that the case will be dismissed in the end, because the President’s party will decide along partisan lines. Their decision is to protect the President, independently of the merits of the case. And the President, then, will try to ride on that acquittal and move to a higher gear in terms of his re-election campaign. OK, it’s expected, it is part of the political game. He will take a discernible advantage of his malpractices. But the Democrats had no other option but to impeach. Today, more than ever, it is important to act based on principles.

A bad day for President Trump

Michael Cohen’s most amazing testimony before Congress has completely obfuscated the Hanoi Summit. That’s something President Donald Trump will not forget. But there are many other revelations in Cohen’s evidence that will remain for very long in the President’s mind.

The problem is that they have also caught the attention of Robert Mueller and other prosecutors, in addition to the members of Congress. As such, we can expect very turbulent days ahead for the US President.

It’s true that many will try to dismiss the accusations by saying that Cohen is not credible and that all this is about partisanship politics. Fine, it might work. However, these Cohen facts and stories are very serious allegations. They can be politically fought, certainly defeated. And I do not know how the legal people will act on them. But I am certain that the history will not be kind when judging the current President. And for someone like Donald Trump, the image that will remain in the books is a critical issue. Today, I am sure he is a very unhappy man, notwithstanding the symbolic hugs he got from Kim Jong-Un.

Trump is a dangerous candidate

I watched Donal Trump´s speech on Orlando´s tragedy. That was the day after the heart-breaking act of extreme folly. He had hence time to organise his thoughts and decide on the messages. And what came out should be seen as a very dangerous approach to peaceful relations between diverse communities, at the domestic level, and also to international affairs. Dangerous because the speech was well delivered and could be easily understood by those who have a primary approach to life in America. And seen as convincing. Dangerous because it put across the absurd belief that Muslims in the US know about terrorist intentions and radical people but keep quiet. Dangerous because it was about open confrontation and stigmatisation. Dangerous again because it was about lies, including about the President, who has been very active in the fight against terrorism in many parts of the world, including through the controversial drone killing programme. And above all, it was a excellent reminder that Trump is a danger himself, and should not be allowed to get going without being seriously challenged, particularly by those within the leadership of his own party. 

A good framework deal with Iran

The perseverance has paid off and we have now the framework on a nuclear agreement with Tehran. This is good news at a time when good news from that part of the world are few and far apart.

As I said before, we should trust the negotiators and accept the deal as genuine step forward. This should be the position of every truthful leader. In the US, the right-wingers in the Republican Party are not prepared to see it from this perspective. They are even saying that they will call off the agreement if they get to the presidency in 2017. Such statements are very difficult to accept by the public opinion on our side of the ocean. And they make it more difficult for those in Europe that advocate for a strong partnership with the US. 

Global America

President Obama’s address, this afternoon, about the health coverage initiative and the shutdown of government services, will certainly have an important impact on American public opinion. The finger pointing at the Republicans was very effective. I think it is the right approach. The pressure on the Republican Party should convince its leaders that it is in their electoral interest to find a way out of the current crisis. The sooner they do it the better as the continued shutdown will end up by having a major impact on the economy both in the US and elsewhere. Today’s world is too interconnected for us, Europeans, to say this is a mere American issue. It is not. We will end up by being concerned as well.