Lukashenko flies low and will crash

Lukashenko in choppy flight

Victor Angelo

 

For some states, the repression of dissidents knows neither limits nor borders. Anything goes when someone is considered an enemy of the regime. Even when he or she lives abroad, convinced that it is safer. One may not be, however, if one is considered a target for the criminals who control power in the home country. Some dictatorships have an awfully long repressive arm. They have no qualms about operating on foreign soil and conducting murders, kidnappings, or making frivolous or unsubstantiated accusations in order to force Interpol to issue international arrest and repatriation notices. In other cases, they brutally intimidate family members who have remained in the country, with the aim of silencing the opponent in other latitudes.

The atrocious execution in Istanbul of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 was the most visible case in recent times. But it is not only Saudi Arabia that violates international law in this way. In a recently published report, the reputable NGO Freedom House took inventory of individual cases of transnational repression and the regimes that practice it, with total disregard for the sovereignty of other states and the norms of political asylum and refugee protection. In addition to the Saudis, the list includes China, Iran, Rwanda, Russia and Turkey. It would be easy, unfortunately, to add a few others. North Korea, for example, which organized the assassination of Kim Jong-un's half-brother at Kuala Lumpur airport in 2017. And as of this week, we have to include Lukashenko's Belarus.

The Belarusian dictator, who is not cleared of the well-founded suspicion of having rigged the August 2020 presidential elections in his favor, is afraid of his population and of those who lead the opposition against his regime. Therefore, it follows the old methods of dictatorships, that is, it represses the street demonstrations with all brutality, creates a generalized situation of fear, and decapitates the organizational summit, the leadership that is capable of making the popular masses move. Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994, did not go to KGB school like his protector Vladimir Putin, but that does not stop him from acting in "special operations" mode.

That is what he did, by forcibly and cunningly diverting the Ryanair commercial flight from Athens to the Lithuanian capital. The interception violated all international standards related to civil aviation safety. It was also a serious affront to the European Union because it was an air link between two Schengen capitals, and a total disregard for political asylum rules. But it allowed him to kidnap and put out of action an important activist in the fight for democracy in Belarus, the young journalist Roman Protasevich.

The political costs of this criminal act are high. The European Council was expeditious and unanimous in its condemnation and response. The airspace Lukashenko controls is no longer on the route for European flights - and not only that, as several Asian airlines have followed suit - and the national airline of Belarus will have to suspend its connections with destinations within the EU. Moreover, the economic sanctions will be extended.

Some will say that these kinds of penalties have little effect on a country that depends primarily on its relations with Russia. They also add that such measures will increase Lukashenko's political subordination to the Kremlin. It is hard not to recognize the merit of these remarks. Experience shows that sanctions against third countries do not lead to major political transformations, except when they directly hit the ruling clique and the sectors vital for the country's economic survival. It is not yet known which will be the new personalities and which activities will be added to the existing sanctions list. But in these matters, the symbolic dimension is equally important. The political and diplomatic isolation of Alexander Lukashenko, and his people, must be made very clear. It serves as a lever. It is up to the Belarusian democratic opposition to do the rest. 

(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published yesterday in the Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper)

Genocide: never again?

Today is a day of remembrance. In Rwanda, in Africa, here in Europe and in many parts of the world.

What started twenty-five years ago – a genocide that would last for over three months – is above all a Rwandan tragedy. But it is also a major failure for all of us, starting with the UN Security Council.

All the lessons have now been drawn. All the key responsibilities have been apportioned. But, can we say never again? I really hope so, like everyone else does.

It is true that countries do not want to recognise when a major calamity is in the making. Even when it is already in the horizon, some do not want to say they see it coming. That is also the case within the Security Council. However, I think the global information mechanisms are today more powerful. And that makes it a bit more difficult to pretend that there is no problem.

Boutros-Ghali: a diplomat with strong views

Boutros Boutros-Ghali passed away early in the day. And I feel compelled to say a few words of homage about my former boss. I served as his representative in The Gambia and later in Tanzania. And I want to remember him as a man of courage. He was not afraid of speaking up to the permanent members of the UN Security Council. Actually, he said one day, after he had left the UN, that he regretted not having been aggressive enough with the members of Security Council. In his opinion, the Council had not responded appropriately to the major crises of the time, Rwanda and the Balkans. But we cannot say it was his fault. He was very clear in his messages. In the case of the US, he had some difficult encounters with President Bill Clinton and his senior officers. He insisted but failed to convince Clinton that the situation in Rwanda was extremely serious. Clinton did not appreciate Boutros-Ghali´s critiques. And the mandate was not renewed. The power of the veto did the job

Rwanda and the Central African Republic

On this anniversary day, twenty years after the beginning of genocide in Rwanda, as we remember those terrible events and the hundreds of thousands of victims, we seem to forget that we have a similar situation in the Central African Republic. It is true the numbers are not as high, but the hatred between communities and the killing of innocents, of one´s neighbours, just because they look a bit different or dress in a way that shows their religious beliefs, are very similar to what happened in Rwanda.  And once again, we prefer to remember the past and ignore the deep challenges of the present.