About the Syrian donors´meeting

One facet of the recent big pledging conferences, like the one of yesterday in London, convened to mobilise resources for Syrian refugees, is that most of promises never materialise. Countries make commitments, and in some cases, very substantial ones. But the disbursements, in many cases, are well below the pledges. And in other cases, countries do announce contributions that never materialise.

One of the reasons is that the monies that are declared during the conferences have never been discussed with the country´s finance minister. They come out of the foreign minister´s mouth. He or she might be a very influential and strong politician. But in the end, funds are the prerogative of finance ministers.

I have seen many disappointments after these types of meetings. One gets the impression that the call was very successful only to realise later on that most of funds never materialise. That creates frustration. It also gives room for very serious misunderstandings between the authorities from the receiving countries and the intended beneficiaries. The latter do not see the support promised and then get to believe that the money was misappropriate by the administering authorities. 

Sierra Leone´s Ebola keeps everyone at home

Sierra Leone is locked down for three days. The last day will be tomorrow. During this period no-one can be on the streets, anywhere in the country, unless it has a valid official reason. People have to stay in-doors and wait for the Ebola sensitization teams to visit the home and do the talk about the disease.

It is a major dramatic decision to lock everyone in at home for three days. I saw the President on TV, when he explained the reasons. Dr Ernest Bai Koroma, a man I know very well, we had many private lunches together and also many official meetings, looked old and tired. This tragedy has taken a very heavy toll on him and on his countrymen and women.

But his words were very wise. I really hope people will follow the health guidance that is provided. And that the international community will be up to the challenge and willing to augment the assistance. The disease is controllable but the country calls for additional support. And the population has to get rid of the political divisions, the ethnic fears and believe the President. 

Mali as an example

Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, aka IBK, won the Malian presidential elections and should be congratulated. It is a clear and clean win. We should also congratulate the people of Mali for the peaceful and mature political process. That had happened in the past, in 1992, 1997 and 2002, and again this time. As such, the country is regaining its credentials as a democratic state and a place of culture and respect.

I had said in this blog that the elections timetable was too tight and the elections could not be prepared seriously. I happily recognise I was wrong.

Now the challenge is to bring state administration back and get it to function.  And keep an eye on the donors’ promises and make sure they are delivered. The Malians have shown they deserve the support of the international community. 

Mali needs a much longer political transition

There will be a second donor conference for Mali on 15 May in Brussels. I am afraid it will be another game of smoke and mirrors. Promises, promises, and further promises. The first one, at the end of January in Addis Ababa produced over 450 million dollars of pledges but little –only about a quarter of that amount –has effectively been made available. The humanitarian needs are far from being met. Food vulnerability is widespread in the North. Money for the reform of the armed forces and the security sector has not materialised. The dialogue and reconciliation process is not supported. Public administration is starved of funds and paralysed 

And I am also afraid there will additional pressure on the Transitional Government to move faster on the preparations for the July elections –presidential and legislative –when everybody knows that elections at this early stage are not a solution. The transition phase requires a much longer period of time. 

Mozambique needs to enhance the domestic political dialogue

On Saturday about twenty armed men attacked a police station in a rural area of central Mozambique. The attackers could be linked to former rebels of Renamo, an organization that fought the Frelimo-led government during the eighties and early years of the nineties. That was at the time a very ugly civil war.

Today, Renamo has changed itself in to a political movement. As a party, it sits in Parliament and its leader, Afonso Dhlakama, is given the status of Opposition leader. But the old tensions between the two sides are still very much part of Mozambique’s political life. The Saturday incident is only a remote reminder of the widespread, deep animosity that defines the relations between Renamo and the party in power, Frelimo.  

 Mozambique’s Human Rights League (LDH) has just called the attention of those who want to see the reality that civil war could come back. And it appeals for statesmanship, tolerance and political consultations. Particularly at a time when local elections are being prepared and national legislative elections are scheduled for 2014.

During the last twenty years the donor community has invested heavily in the country.  They have become major partners in the peace building process. They should make use of their leverage to push both political sides to dialogue. It would be a serious mistake – which the key international players cannot afford – to pretend that there is no problem. 

Destabilising West Africa

The French President will visit Mali tomorrow. I have no idea of the messages he intends to put across. But there is one I would like to suggest. It concerns the funding of the African peacekeeping forces that are now deploying into the country. At this week’s donor conference $450 million have been pledged against a budget that is estimated at $1 billion. The gap is too big and needs to be filled. F. Hollande should emphasise that he wants to have an effective African deployment in Mali. He should call on donor countries to take the funding as a matter of their own national interest.

But there is more to this matter. If the African forces are not fully compensated that will spell big crises in their countries of origin, once they are back from the front. I have seen that in the 90s and during the last decade in West Africa. And I am afraid the same might happen again now. Soldiers that have become battle hardened and do not receive the allowances they have been promised are a major source of trouble and instability in most of West Africa. They become convinced that their generals and the politicians have kept the money given by the donors – they do not believe in funding gaps or in pledges that did not materialise – and they seek retribution.

I see this financial shortcoming as a major cause for further destabilisation in the region. It needs to be addressed.