The US and its political crisis

An American friend was deeply concerned by the current political radicalisation her country is experiencing. She specifically mentioned President Trump’s passing references to a possible postponement of the November elections. And there was also a question about the role the military could play if the President would decide to go ahead with such major decision.

I answered as follows.

I do not think he can change the electoral rules unless there is a major event such as an internal rebellion or an external war. The military will follow the existing rules. I do not see them supporting a wild and lawless Trump. He might try a trick or two, including something about the impossibility of a proper postal vote in a situation of public health calamity, but that would not be enough to mobilize enough support within the military, the security agencies, and his own party.

I recognise that the general atmosphere is not good and that many extremists do support him. They are blind and ferocious in that support. That should certainly be a matter to be worried about. But I do not think they can go far in terms of disturbing the electoral process. That said, I also believe that the country is living a profoundly serious crisis. And it is more divided than ever. Politically and socially. It requires a complete change in the political discourse and a new type of leadership, more inclusive and more responsive to the existing dramatic inequalities.

We must be able to convince

The cooperation between nations has been seriously impacted by the current crisis. Each country decided the best way to battle the pandemic was to close the borders and focus on the its domestic issues. Such an approach can somehow work if the country is wealthy with a modern, extensive, and diversified economy. Australia is a good example. Even Norway, at a much smaller case, can also be mention as an example. But every country, rich or poor, depends on international trade, investments, or development aid. These three areas have lost speed. They will take quite a bit of time to recover. But above all, we must insist that today’s and tomorrow’s world can only address the issues of recovery, peace and security, climate change, and poverty, if countries cooperate and see themselves as part of a community of nations with a common destiny. The United Nations System and all the regional arrangements must regain their credibility. The challenge in this case is to be able to lead the narrative about a better world. It must be a convincing one, based on a constructive and balanced approach. Most of the visions that are being shared are not seen as balanced. They create a lot of fear in the minds and hearts of those who control economic power and the information networks. That is the reason why they do not get to the front pages. It is time to be a bit smarter when talking about the world we all need to put in place.

New disparities in a changing world

People were queuing this afternoon to get into the most expensive shops in a well-to-do area of Brussels. The other shops, normally patronised by the medium-income people had almost no customer. And then, there was this incredibly sad sight of closed restaurants and bars and a big hotel, a huge tower, completely empty. For me, it was a vivid example of how the crisis is seriously affecting some segments of society whilst others are just returning to their old habits, as if the past were back. But it is not.

A very unequal new world

One of the most damaging consequences of the pandemic will be the augmentation of social inequalities. Some people will not be particularly impacted by the economic crisis that results from the measures taken to combat the Covid-19. They will experience no real change in their lifestyles. But the others, many of them, will see their income disappear or be dramatically reduced. They will be the new poor, finding themselves in desperate conditions. Their numbers will reach new heights, causing a totally distorted social reality and extreme instability. Such a situation will be explosive. The new poor are not used to navigate the poverty waters. They will feel left behind. We should expect if nothing is done to mitigate the misery, a very serious political challenge.

International Women's Day

International Women’s Day is about equality between men and women, boys and girls. It is about equal rights. We can celebrate what has already been achieved but we have also to acknowledge the shortcomings and wrongs.

It is an ongoing struggle. In many societies, there is still a long road ahead. It must be walked without further delays. A nation that leaves behind the women does not belong to today’s times. It must catch up.

In our part of the world, it is more about attitudes that have yet to change, it is about implementing what we know it is right, transforming into reality the nice words we pronounce.

In both cases, and in very practical terms, it all begins with education and putting an end to all types of violence practised against women and girls. 

The best way to move forward is to have women in positions of power, including political and economic power. I know that men in leading roles can also fight for women’s rights. We have several cases we could mention. But in my own experience, I have learned that it is much better, more impactful, to have those leading roles taken up by women.

A global wave of urban revolt

It cannot escape one’s attention that currently there are several cases of urban revolt taking place in a good number of countries. Each one of these mass movements have their own specific causes. But I think there are a few common features. They are related to the stress of leaving in megacities with poor infrastructure and high cost of living, housing challenges, youth unemployment, job insecurity, and the disparity of living standards one can find in every big city. Inequality and a strong feeling of social injustice combined with scot-free corruption by the elites lead to mass demonstrations, including the destruction of symbols of power.

Equality and freedom

In our societies, a lot of emphasis is place on equality. Even without making the difference between equality of opportunities or equality of results and outcomes. It’s just a repeated reference to equality, as a banner. And politics is then compelled to give a lot of attention to the matter, very often without a proper debate of the issue, which is more complex than it looks.

I have also worked in places where people are just struggling daily. They might think about equality as well. But their main demand is about freedom and basic rights. In other places, it is also about space to act without too many administrative constraints and much less bureaucratic interference.

We seem to have lost sight of the aspirations of such peoples. It is not a balanced view of the world.

Comics: a man´s world

In Europe, the key annual event about comics and cartoons takes place every January in Angoulême, an old town lost somewhere in the South-West of France. This year´s festival is just over. During four days, thousands of new creations by some of the world´s leading cartoonists were exhibited. As in the previous years, Angoulême attracted big crowds.

A major prize is attributed to one of cartoonists. It is like a top Oscar. It sends the message that the laureate has made it to the hall of fame. In 2016, among the 30 names selected for inclusion in the final list of candidates to the prize there was no woman. Here, in the comics world, like in many other domains of life, gender is still a silent but extremely efficient filter. 

Quick note on Davos 2016

Davos 2016 is now completed. The last footprints on the snow are just disappearing. But the intellectual and political footprints that marked four days of discussions will remain for a good while. We can say a lot of bad things about Davos and its crowds. But we have also to recognise that the annual meetings offer a special opportunity to reflect about the present and the future. Some of the best minds engage in the debates. And that´s the big plus of the Davos initiative.

There are many take-home ideas that came out of the many sessions, dialogues and presentations. I would like to refer to three of them.

First, today´s world faces a good deal of simultaneous crises. This combination of very profound challenges carries a new level of risks, an unprecedented hodgepodge of perils. 

Second, the nations and the international institutions are not prepared to respond to the complexities. That makes everything much more dangerous and unpredictable. It also contributes in a very big way to the discredit of leaders and the international system, including the UN.

Third, we can expect a very serious increase of the inequalities. As we move into more sophisticated forms of production and economic activity, the income and wealth differences will increase. On one side, we will see those who can take advantage of the new technologies and of the global system of exchanges. On the other, there will masses of individuals and families left behind. Power and fragility will be the sides of the future. And we can expect that people will not be ready to accept it with just a smile.