A new model of politics

The huge amount of resources that the European Union member States will have available for recovery is a golden opportunity to change what needs to be changed. That means, as I see it, to invest on health and social matters, on an economy that is friendlier to the environment, on the digital dimensions and on greater inclusion of those who have less income and insecure jobs. The funding of new projects should be guided by these concerns. This is a turning point and we cannot miss it. I am confident the Commission will provide the necessary guidance and will try to make sure the governments do respect the paradigm change. The real challenge is to prevent these monies are used to enrich the supporters of those in power. That will be the old tendency. But we are in a new era. The European Commission must ensure that the citizens in each State have enough power to stop the old clientelism and the ways of doing things that make some richer and the vast majority more vulnerable.

So much has changed

We are about to close the second decade of the XXI Century. As we look back, the last 10 years have been a time of major transformation and change. The year 2010 seems to be far back and to belong to another era. Politics have changed, and not for the better. Lies and polarisation are new key features. The economy has also gone through major transformations. Artificial Intelligence, computerisation are the new dimensions. But they are not alone. The economic changes have also brought new levels of precariousness and powerlessness, job insecurity and a frustration. And then, there is a new understanding of the climate crisis. It is unfortunately accompanied by actions that are too small to effectively respond to the issues we face.

In many ways, I think we end the decade with a stronger feeling hopelessness and deep distrust for those who are in charge. We are also more contradictory in our own way of looking at things. We know but we do not want to change what we got used to. We just hope others will do it.

That goes along with a serious leadership crisis. The political and thought leaders are no longer those who are in power. They are among the little people, the ordinary citizens and, in many ways, among the very young. There again, there is a serious gap between political authority and moral authority. That’s one the challenges we have to address we get into the next decade.

A global wave of urban revolt

It cannot escape one’s attention that currently there are several cases of urban revolt taking place in a good number of countries. Each one of these mass movements have their own specific causes. But I think there are a few common features. They are related to the stress of leaving in megacities with poor infrastructure and high cost of living, housing challenges, youth unemployment, job insecurity, and the disparity of living standards one can find in every big city. Inequality and a strong feeling of social injustice combined with scot-free corruption by the elites lead to mass demonstrations, including the destruction of symbols of power.

Mali: a matter of serious concern

After a discussion this morning with a Malian friend, who is a former senior UN official, what I retained can be easily summarised in a few words: a failed political process and damaging high level corruption.

Basically, this means that unless the domestic leaders and the international community representatives address these two fundamental issues there will be no peace, stability and economic revival in the foreseeable future. And the country will remain dangerously insecure, dramatically poor and a major source of illegal immigration.

I do not think we can expect much of the current national leadership if we do not discuss the situation frankly with them. This is no time for us, the outside friends of Mali, to be ambiguous. We are required to be frank, courageous but also practice good diplomatic judgement.

Who should take the lead in the policy dialogue, as far as the international community is concerned?

Terrorism: the narrative matters

Tomorrow I should spend some time on the relationship between terrorism and media. Basically, the question is about the way our European media is reporting about the terrorist incidents that have recently caused serious despair in our societies. More specifically, the concern is about the media as amplifiers of the terror atmosphere the criminals want to create among us. How is our serious media telling the stories? The narratives, including the exaggerations, have a major impact on people. And terrorism is about impacting and destabilising as many as possible. We should not be naïve and allow ourselves to serve their objectives.

Furthermore, a crisis psychosis is the ideal ground for the growth of all kinds of opportunistic politicians. They know how to take advantage of our fears. Are we unwillingly helping them?

These are some of the questions on the table. 

Poverty, drought and neglect in the Sahel

It is with deep sadness that we have learned about the loss of another five peacekeepers deployed in Mali with the UN mission. They were killed yesterday by a group of armed men. The mission has been repeatedly targeted. This time the attack took place in the central region of the country, well outside the troubled areas of Northern Mali. It´s therefore a new development and one should be very concerned. It shows that the insecurity is now reaching other provinces. It also raises a few questions about the dissemination of extremist ideas to different parts of the Malian countryside. Endemic poverty combined with a couple of years of drought and abandonment by the central authorities make some people more attentive to the words of local preachers that have acquired their simplistic views in some faraway places in the Arab Peninsula. 

Brussels is living in slow motion

The state of high alert will continue for a third day tomorrow in Brussels. We will start the new week in slow motion. More importantly, the schools, at every level of education, will be closed. We will have to explain to the very young the reasons.

Many people are criticizing the decision to extend the period of alert. They think it is unwarranted, that it only serves the purpose of showing that the government is finally taking action. And they talk about the negative economic impact of such a decision.

In these matters, my advice is clear: let´s trust the authorities. We have no other choice. And we need to believe they are being responsible. In matters of security, to be responsible means to minimize the risk until you understand more precisely the nature of the threat and are in a better position to respond to it.

Let´s believe that´s what is taking place. 

Calais is a clear example of political weakness

It was again quite obvious that the French authorities have lost the initiative in Calais. The illegal immigrants are just around, at least 3,000 of them, trying to jump into trains and trucks and cross into the UK. They roam around freely and the police can only react when there is an attempt to board a vehicle.

The point is not about the police. It´s about the political masters losing control of the situation. This is just an example of the lack of political response we see in many parts of the European space. With time the problem will grow much bigger. 

Soldiers on the streets is no effective response to terrorist threats

Yesterday I wrote about my concern to see inappropriate, excessive security measures being adopted as a follow-up to the dramatic events in France. Unfortunately, the politicians seem to prove me right. They have now decided to put something like 10,000 soldiers on the French streets. This increases the security paranoia, it sends the message that people should live in fear, and gives the military a role that it is not theirs, for which they are not prepared. Furthermore, it makes them an easy target for all kinds of crazies that hate military uniforms.

The politicians know that this is not the right approach but might think that the citizens appreciate this action. I am not even sure of that.

And let´s be clear. When there is a real problem – and the terrorist threat is real – the responsibility of the political leaders is to organise the right response. Not to engage in spectacular actions that have very little impact on the solution of the problem. 

Charlie Hebdo and our tolerance level

On this day, when barbarians attacked the weekly Charlie Hebdo, in the heart of the city of Paris, one should just say two things. First, to express sadness. And second, to say that this type of criminal actions aims at the core of our values and tries to destroy our tolerance, our acceptance of the difference. And that cannot be accepted. We certainly come out of this in pain but at the same time strengthened in our capacity to accept the difference. What we cannot accept is terrorism, extremism, ideas of centuries ago, or any dog of God. And we have to be prepared to fight them. There is no place in our society, in 2015, for any group of mad, hallucinated terrorists.  

Insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea: where are the root causes

At yesterday´s international meeting on Security in the Gulf of Guinea, convened by the Portuguese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, I built my intervention five security dimensions that are critical to understand the root causes of the challenges the region is facing.

They are:

          Widespread poverty, desperation, shrinking opportunities for survival –example, less fish available to the coastal communities – , advancing desertification, over-grazing and community conflicts, high cost of living; this is the livelihood dimension.

          Very high rate of population growth, domestic migrations, rapid urbanization, transfer of poverty to the cities, youth unemployment, marginalization and urban crime, armed gangs; the demographics dimension.

          Extremely weak State institutions in all sectors, including in the areas of national and domestic security; this is State ineffectiveness dimension.

          Governance and democratic deficits, human rights violations, widespread corruption and ineptitude, predatory elites; this is the governance dimension.

          Radicalisation and simplification of the political-religious discourse; the influence of radical preachers trained in and funded by Middle Eastern Countries; the identity and ethnicity as instruments of power and exclusion; this is the extremist dimension.

Insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea

I have been asked to look at the security challenges in the Gulf of Guinea. There will be an international meeting on the subject in Lisbon on 11 July. States from the region, and partner nations from the EU and elsewhere, including Brazil and the US, are supposed to attend.

The meeting comes out of a growing concern about the security challenges facing Coastal West Africa, as the next expansion area of a crisis that has shaped the Sahel during the recent past. The sea lanes are along West Africa are vital for many interests, including the oil and fishing interests of European countries.

As I get deeper into the subject I come to old conclusions: poor governance in the region, extremely weak states, predatory elites, inadequate cooperation policies on the side of rich countries, widespread disrespect for human rights, all that play a role and seriously contribute to a complex situation that could easily get out of hand in the future. 

EU needs to have a firmer approach towards Qatar and Saudi Arabia

The EU, and in particular the High Representative for Foreign Affairs, should spend more time engaging the North African countries on common security concerns. She should also actively engage the Saudis and the Qataris. Both have a lot of influence in North Africa and the neighbouring countries. And that influence is sometimes used to promote objectives and doctrine that play against stability in the region and have a direct impact of supporting radical views.

This type of proactive diplomatic action would achieve much greater results, if done in strategic way and from a firm position, than any EU military or police operation. Qatar and Saudi Arabia should be made to understand that they cannot play the fundamentalist card in the backyard of Europe.

UN General Assembly

The annual meeting of the UN General Assembly started today, with a number of important speeches. My gut instinct is that there is a bit of space for new diplomacy initiatives as far as Syria and Iran are concerned. But then I think of the many other places that attract little attention and are in the midst of serious national crisis. These are the forgotten conflicts. But death, violence, rape, and sheer fear are the ones that do not forget people in those lost corners of our collective memory.