Deep Seek and Light Trump: the new globalism

 Artificial Intelligence, the competition between the great powers and Trump's disorientation

Victor Angelo

As in previous weeks, the week began with a big surprise, this time coming from China. It was the emergence of a new version in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI), an efficient and incredibly cheap Chinese program, competing at the highest level with the very expensive solutions coming from the USA. It came up with the name DeepSeek and is ready to give an instant response in a variety of languages. The news, which in just a few hours caused American and European technology companies to lose hundreds of billions of dollars in the capital markets, brought with it two major messages.

The first is about money, showing that it is possible to successfully invest in AI without spending the fabulous sums that large North American multinationals have been spending. The Chinese experience seems to show that the capitalization of Western competitors is more related to stock speculation than to real financing needs. They are true incubators of billionaires. The value of shares listed on the NASDAQ in New York or on certain European stock exchanges has much more to do with capitalist greed than with the scientific and business costs of large technology corporations based in California and one or another European location.

This observation regarding costs brings to mind what comes to us from Ukraine: the country's armed forces are using AI on a large scale, transforming classic equipment into digitally operated weapons. They are thus able, with modest expenditure, to go far and strike hard, almost compensating for their lack of weapons when faced with a much more powerful aggressor, and thus obtain unbelievable results. For the avoidance of doubt, I will immediately add that Ukraine is doing what it can with domestic science, but it continues to urgently need massive assistance in terms of air defense, artillery, ammunition, missiles and aircraft, and much more material available in the Western countries, but delivered with a half-closed hand and a short and timid arm, so as not to irritate excessively the delinquent who lives in the Kremlin.

The second message we get from China is that the country is much more advanced in terms of AI than Americans and Europeans think. American supremacy shook a lot this week. We do not have concrete data on this subject, but we already know two things: on the one hand, that Beijing considers the issue a top priority; and that President Xi Jinping argues that whoever wins the digital race will be the strongest global power in the future. This is one of the reasons why he is betting on the forced annexation of Taiwan, a territory that has a cutting-edge industry in terms of the production of nanochips, which are essential for top AI performance. The other reason for Beijing's high interest in Taiwan stems from a mix of ultranationalism and imperial, geopolitical ambition. Xi is fortunate that President Donald Trump confused, as happened this week in one of his verbal slips, Taiwan as an extension of the People's Republic of China. The same Trump who also seems unaware that Taiwan has around 65 billion dollars invested in the US in the area of ​​cyber technologies.

And so we entered the second week of the Trump administration. In addition to the flood of measures he set in motion, the carriage's progress confirms what was already feared.

Domestically, his first executive orders are potentially disastrous for the country's economy and social stability. They will accentuate internal fractures and could provoke serious political unrest.

On the international scene, it can be predicted that we will see the collapse of the multilateral system. WHO appeared as a first target, for reasons of competition with China, and for no other reason. China could be, and most likely will be, the main beneficiary of the Trump Administration's fury against UN organizations. NATO itself could also be the target of this furor against the international system. It will not be destroyed by Trump's wrath, but it could face moments of great turbulence in the face of the impositions and contradictions invented in Washington.

Still on the subject of foreign policy, Trump will limit himself to dealing with Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, both wanted by international justice, with Xi Jinping and with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, an expert in the dismemberment of journalists. And perhaps also with the exotic, crazy and murderous Kim Jong-un. Netanyahu will be in Washington next week as the first official guest. As for Europe, Trump will want to see on the map not a European Union or valuable allies, but a scattering of countries that he thinks have already passed into history.

No dIário de Notícias de hoje 5 JAN 2024

 2024 é um ano crucial, a exigir coragem e respostas à altura (dn.pt)

To start the New Year: reflections about ongoing conflicts

 

2024 is a crucial year, demanding courage and responses to match
Victor Ângelo

 

I spent decades leading United Nations political, peace and development missions. It was at the UN that I grew professionally and learned how to resolve conflicts, some quite serious, in which death and pain lurked behind every dune, tree or rock. I thus gained a broader view of the international system and the way in which the relationship with the Security Council should be carried out. Then, for years, I worked as a civilian mentor at NATO, preparing future heads of military operations, repeatedly highlighting the need to obtain the support of populations and humanitarian organizations in these operations.

Experience taught me the paramount importance that must be given to safeguarding people's lives. When I addressed generals, police force commanders and UN security agents, the priority was to emphasize the value of life. That of ours, who were part of the mission, as well as protecting the lives of others, simple citizens, whether or not suspected of collaborating with the insurgents, and even the lives of enemies.

Nothing can be resolved in a sustainable way if there is not deep respect for the civilian populations living on either side of the barricades, if others are treated as worthless people, to whom access to vital goods, such as mere animals, can be cut off. to slaughter without mercy or mercy. Killing does not resolve any conflict. For every death today, new fighters emerge tomorrow, with even stronger feelings of revenge. The fundamental thing is to create the conditions for peace, open the doors to negotiations and understanding. A retaliatory war is a mistake. It is a retaliatory response, an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth, inspired by an ancient legal order. Or, in a more current hypothesis, it is a war directed by political leaders who lack common sense and foresight.

I also had in mind, in my guidelines, the wisdom of the brilliant Charlie Chaplin, in the moving character of the clown Calvero. In his film Highlights (1952), Chaplin at one point makes the clown Calvero say that “life is a beautiful, magnificent thing, even for a jellyfish”. Yes, even for a jellyfish, a gelatinous invertebrate for whom few will have any sympathy. I have always thought that this phrase, so simple, should occupy a top place in our way of facing conflicts. Politics only makes sense when it allows everyone to live in freedom and safety.

One of the great challenges of 2024 is to be able to explain this understanding to the medusa, the life and work of the United Nations in a language that certain leaders are able or forced to understand. How can we say this in the perverse and sophistry patois that is said in the Kremlin? How can we express this wisdom in progressive Hebrew or Arabic with accents of peace? How can we make the speech of reconciliation heard by people responsible for conflicts in other regions of the world, taking into account that 2023 was a year of acceleration in multiple expressions of hatred and radicalism?

We have two issues here that will need to be clarified and resolved as quickly as possible.

First, anyone who doesn't understand Charlie Chaplin and the value of life should not be at the head of a nation. The place of war criminals is in The Hague or before a special court created for that purpose, as happened in Yugoslavia or Rwanda. I say this, and I emphasize it, so that there is no doubt, in my capacity as someone who was at the forefront of the founding of the Arusha Court, in Tanzania, established to judge those mainly responsible for the genocide that took place in Rwanda in 1994. The precedents exist and those responsible for the massacres in Ukraine and the Middle East know them. As criminals always fantasize, they may even think that they will escape these trials. At the speed at which things are changing, they should not be calm.

Second, the Secretary-General of the United Nations must go far beyond humanitarian issues. Humanitarian assistance is essential, without a doubt, and cannot be forgotten. But this is something short-term and precarious, as there are many situations of need, tragedies are enormous in various parts of the world, and resources are always scarce. The UN Charter is above all about political solutions. The Secretary-General must maintain tireless dialogue with the parties and present without further delay a peace plan for Ukraine and another for Palestine. Plans that address the roots of the problems, that are based on international law and that courageously point out the political steps that the Security Council must consider.

We have to rise to the very serious challenges that lie ahead, in what has everything to be a crucial year in contemporary history.

Published in Portuguese in today's edition of Diário de Notícias, Lisbon, 5 January 2024. 

A plan that has no wings

The “peace plan” President Trump presented yesterday is not acceptable to the Palestinian side, as the initial reactions have shown. There is no surprise here. The document is basically an endorsement of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s views and an instrument to boost his chances during the forthcoming general election. Apparently, it is not adding any support to the Prime Minister’s electoral fortunes, but it is too early to conclude so.

The important point is that one of the two parties to the solution does not recognise President Trump’s initiative as positive. The President, if he really wanted to move the peace process forward, should start by a couple of goodwill gestures. He should authorise the reopening of the Palestine Delegation in Washington, a delegation he ordered to be closed in 2018. He should also resume the US funding contribution to the UN Agency that provides support to the Palestinians (UNRWA). And be much clearer about the future of Jerusalem and the Jordan Valley, two extremely sensitive points. Here, his position should be that both issues must be part of the agreement, without any position of force being stated since day one. Finally, he should establish a link between his vision and the Arab Peace Plan of 2002.

Well, all this is daydreaming, on my side. The truth of the matter is summarised by one single word: partiality.

A one-sided peace plan

I decided long ago not to write about the conflict between Israel and Palestine. The main reason has been that I do not see a solution to it unless the United States plays a balanced role in the peace process. The US is the only country that can help Israel to adopt a reasonable approach and encourage the country’s leaders to engage the Palestinian side in a mutually beneficial way.

With time, the trust has been seriously eroded and peace has become less and less viable. The basis for a resolution has gradually been undermined. In fact, the obstacles have gained additional volume during the past few years.

Today, President Trump launched what he calls “a peace plan” for Israel and Palestine. The plan is very close to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s ambitions. Secondly, it does not consider that peace must come from within, from the involvement of the parties to the conflict. In the case, the Palestinians have not been heard, they have been excluded from the plan’s design. They could still be interested in taking this project and negotiate it. But I doubt. The proposal goes too far in the Israeli direction. And without the Palestinian buy-in there is no true plan.

Let’s in meantime wait for a more detailed reaction from the Palestinian side. Even if one can guess what it might be.

Responding to the strong men

As we consider the year ahead, and keep in mind the way some leaders behave, we should expect some shocks. These are unpredictable times. One must watch the key radar screens all the time. That means to keep a very attentive eye on people with real power, from Donald Trump to Xi Jinping, without forgetting Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, or even Narendra Modi, Imran Ahmed Khan, Kim Jong-un, and a handful of players in the Middle East.

Power games, deception and confrontation seem to be the main lines of inspiration in today’s international affairs. They make the world a dangerous place once again. It would be a serious mistake not to recognise the existing threats to peace and stability.

The response ought to be based on moderation, respect for the values that have been accepted in the last decades and speaking truth to power. To remain silent at this stage would be unacceptable. 2020 calls for strong and balanced views.