Fighting for a changed approach to security in conflict zones

Following what I wrote yesterday about the national armies in some of the Sahelian countries – that their low operational capacity is one of the key problems, on top of their human rights shortcomings and other serious governance issues – I was reminded by a friend of the example of Somalia. The international community, including European resources, have been engaged in the country for a long time with little results. Billions have been spent and many lives lost. However, the terrorists are all over, including in the capital city. And the national army, that we all have trained and keep repeating is essential to solve the insecurity threats, has a fighting capacity that is estimated at 8%. That means that almost everyone in the army is not prepared to fight an asymmetric war and cannot collect the intelligence needed to crush the terrorist cells. Or, there are two fundamental dimensions of any stabilisation project. They are not enough but if they do not happen nothing else can be achieved.

That’s why I keep repeating that we must look at these matters with frankness and be clear about what is going on and what needs to change. If we fail to do it, if we keep pretending and talk niceties, we will keep investing in the sand of those vast deserts. We will be wasting resources and lives. And we will be undermining the credibility of the international institutions and other players that are operating in such contexts. Can’t we find the courage to shift our approach?

Somalia is out of the international radar

I was in contact today with a former UN colleague who is now serving in Somalia. And I became deeply worried, as we reviewed the situation in the country.

Al-Shabaab, the terrorist organization that operates in Somalia, remains a major threat. As the situation deteriorates once again, the soldiers from the AU expeditionary force are paying a very heavy toll. They are in Somalia, with a UN-supported mandated, to help in restoring peace but they are the target of repeated vicious attacks. Many African soldiers – recently the Burundians and the Ethiopians lost a good number of military personnel – have been killed. The UN staff, who are basically confined to their compound at the airport, are also in very serious danger.

There is no hope in the air once more.

Somalia is one of those forgotten conflicts that the international community keeps out of the radar. It is out of the news, because it is in many ways an unmanageable and unsolvable conflict. It is also less important for the world powers at present because the piracy issue has been successfully addressed. Therefore, the country is no longer a menace for the interests that matter and its unmeasurable drama can obviously be relegated to a darker corner at the end of the list of priorities. 

Time for a serious overhaul of Kenya´s security apparatus

Kenya is very vulnerable to Al-Shabaab´s terrorist enterprises. 

There is the long border with Somalia, the home base for this radical group. In addition, Kenya has a large segment of its population with Somali ethnic roots. Many of them are Kenyan citizens, others are refugees who ran away from decades of violent conflict, drought and misery in Somalia. Some might feel discriminated and marginalised but they try to cope with their situation and are only concerned by making ends meet. They are peaceful people. A few of them can however, for clan-related reasons, provide some cover to extremists. 

That´s why a greater reliance of people´s participation in their own security is essential. The security services have to link better with the citizens and cultivate a relationship of trust. 

The combat against terrorist violence in Kenya calls for a new way of collecting intelligence. That´s probably the most important step that is required at this stage. It should however be complemented by additional investments in counter-insurgency training and better coordination between the defence forces and the security services. 

NATO countries should offer support to Kenya

It´s quite obvious that Kenya is a frontline country in the fight against armed and terrorist groups. The key NATO countries should engage more with Kenya and offer whatever support might be required to strengthen the capacity of the national authorities to do the necessary intelligence work and fight the terrorist organisations operating in the country or nearby.  

Kenya faces major security challenges

One of my colleagues at the UN, a man from a Nordic country, decided to retire by the Kenyan coast, not far from Mombasa. That decision was taken more than 10 years ago. The place was quiet and the weather much nicer than around the Baltic Sea. 

I thought of him and his wife today. The news coming from that part of Africa have not been good. And they have further deteriorated in the last couple of days. People have been massacred by extremists, others have been kidnapped. And above all, the national government seems too weak to be able to tackle the security challenges.

The dangerous situation shows once more that terrorism can spread fast if not properly contained. The chaos that prevails in Somalia, just to the North of Kenya, is a major menace to entire region. And of all the neighbouring countries, Kenya is the most exposed to the expansion of the Somali anarchy. 

Piracy in West African waters

Again on West Africa, this time on piracy: the Gulf of Guinea has experienced this year 30 sea incidents. In two cases, the local pirates have managed to capture the ships.

 Figures show that the Gulf has had more incidents this year than the Somalia waters -20 cases so far in that part of the Indian Ocean.  It is time to start discussing some big international operation in West Africa, even if its waters are no as vital as the East Africa ones for world trade. If the issue is not addressed soon the economies of the coastal states will be seriously impacted by the growing piracy. And soon we might even see an attack against one of the offshore oil platforms, either in Nigeria or in Ghana.

New threats call for new responses

The US Navy Seals operations over the week end in Libya and Somalia, to capture well known terrorist leaders raise a number of questions, in terms of international law. But above all, they beg the question about how current and adjusted to today's world is the fight against international terrorism. This is a debate that has yet to take place: how to respond to multinational terrorist groups.

They represent a new threat to international peace and security. They cannot be fought with conventional means. And they cannot be convinced that they will be safe in weak states or in chaotic societies. They have to understand that global terrorism calls for a global response.

And that was certainly the key message the US has sent this week end across many parts of Africa and elsewhere. The US might have gone beyond the accepted norms. But we need to consider that the old ways of addressing new challenges need to be thought through. With a new approach to national sovereignty and the legitimate use of force. 

Nairobi's drama

Nairobi is a major international hub and a reference city in East Africa. The UN has a very large presence there, including the world headquarters of the UN Environment Programme. In addition, there are many embassies there, a significant number of transnational firms and a dynamic private sector. For many tourists that visit that part of Africa, Nairobi is the entry and exit point. The national carrier, Kenyan Airlines, has become one of the most efficient in Africa. They bring people to Nairobi from many corners of Africa and fly them out to Europe and Asia.

Furthermore, the political situation, which had been so traumatizing in the elections five years ago, has evolved in the right direction. This year’s presidential race was a peaceful exercise in democracy. Notwithstanding the ethnicity dimension that is very present in the society, stability has regained the place it used to occupy.

The Kenyan Armed Forces have been a key player in the fight for peace and normalcy in Somalia. They have inflicted heavy pressure on the radicals over there and managed, with other African troops, to get the worst of them, Al-Shabab, out of the Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu.

Apparently it is this extremist and highly violent group, which is also closely linked to Al-Qaeda, that is responsible for the drama that has befallen over Nairobi since yesterday.  They came to kill and to remind all of us that radicalism and violence are key enemies of democracy and very serious threats to economic and political stability.