Cameron and the EU

During last week´s EU summit in Brussels, the UK Prime Minister showed a more positive approach towards the European institutions, particularly the EU Commission. For those who have seen his past attitudes, he was a different man. The speculation regarding his change of mind is wild and many reasons have been mentioned in the last couple of days. I have no sure answer. But I suspect he has been listening to the key business representatives in London and throughout the UK. For them, a referendum on Europe, as promised by David Cameron, would be a serious mistake. It would give too much space to the inward, nationalistic politicians and could result in a No vote. The big British companies do not want that to happen. 

Code of conduct for intelligence agencies

The on-going row over the US espionage practices should become an opportunity to discuss intelligence cooperation between the two sides of the Atlantic. It should also be used by the Europeans to better define the potential threats to their national and economic security and take the appropriate protective measures.

As I say it, I also recognise that intelligence remains one of the key features of a country´s sovereignty. But this should not prevent the EU countries from integrating better those dimensions of the services that have to do with responding to common threats. And, at the same time, they should protect themselves from intrusion, including when that spying comes from a friendly ally.

It is also time to have a code of conduct and a list of best practices that would guide information collection in a democratic environment. And get national parliaments to appoint independent ethics commissions that would be charged with the overseeing of intelligence activities in their respective countries. These commissions would then be guided by the above-mentioned code of conduct. 

Security obsessions

The US say, through the National Security Agency (NSA) that President Obama was not aware that Angela Merkel’s telephone had been “monitored” by American spies. Nobody would believe it, of course. But this is the right answer to be given, at this stage. It offers everyone a way out.

And tomorrow public opinion will have moved on to other subjects. Merkel and Obama will carry on. They will reaffirm they are allies. Some token gestures will be made. They have little choice but to be seen pulling in the same direction.

And NSA, on its own, will continue its job as well. And, as usual, in a very obsessive way. There might be an enemy behind the hundreds of millions of calls and mails they catch every day.

Azerbaijan

I have walked every street of old Baku in Azerbaijan and I like it. This is a city of Shia culture, like in Iran, but so different from Iran. Baku is a very Westernised place. It is very culturally open and diversified, with excellent ballet and opera performances on show. It might not be the best example of transparent governance. But it is a good case study for those who want to find out how politics can change the mind sets of the population.   

Congested roads and congested minds

As it is often the case, the motorway between Antwerp and Brussels was clogged this afternoon around 4:00 pm. You just need two things to drive at that time of the day between the two cities: a lot of patience and plenty of spare time. 

The economic and human costs of the congested road are huge. And there is little that can be done to alleviate the pressure. The train option is there, it´s true. But entrepreneurs are used to have the trucks coming to their gates and taking the goods straight into the clients´ door step. And people are too dependent on their personal vehicle that they prefer to waste time sitting on it than to make use of public transportation.

But this situation is untenable. Sooner or later it will have to change. And we should start by changing our minds first. And fast. 

Naïve Merkel

Again, as I listen to Angela Merkel and her reactions to the spying the US practices all over the world, I get a bit nervous. How could she be so naïve and believe the US would not seek to spy on her? This is a matter of great concern if we take into account that her naïveté is combined with an immense political power. Easy to fool leaders are in charge and one can only feel very uncomfortable that is the case. If she cannot see the threats coming from the friends, how can she deal with the danger coming from the enemies? 

Mali security sector

The EU Training Mission in Mali is moving in the right direction. The European instructors are now training the third Malian battalion and motivation is high.

As that happens, it is quite clear that the resources available in the donors´ Trust Fund for Peace and Security in Mali are not sufficient. USD 7 million is little money for the reorganisation of the national armed forces. And the outstanding pledges, for the next steps, are even smaller. It is necessary to call the attention of the international partners to the importance of this matter. The results of the EU training will be lost very quickly if financial resources are not made available to complement them.

The second point here is that Mali needs a mirror training programme for the national police and the gendarmerie. These two institutions are very weak. They have to be fully revamped. That requires trainers from outside and also resources. Both are missing at this stage. 

The need for a cultural change in Mali

I gave a public lecture yesterday in Brussels about the situation in Mali. One of the key issues under discussion was the reconciliation among Malians. A very difficult issue, I knew, as the events of 2012 and the early part of 2013 in the Northern Regions had a major negative impact on trust. Each ethnic group withdrew inside its own identity and became very suspicious of every other ethnicity.

It is an issue that is not moving fast enough, at a time when many other parts of the transition process are gaining momentum. And yesterday, during the discussions that followed my presentation, I came to the conclusion that many Malians are not really ready to reconcile. They tend to look at the Tuareg and other nomadic people from the North of Mali with a certain degree of contempt. And the nomads return the favour and see the black Malians as people that are not really interested in sharing power.

I got the impression that the leadership needs to be talked to into a cultural revolution. They have to change their views. The external partners should help them to do so. This is a priority task. 

Fuels for development In Africa

My new research paper of energy and sustainable development in Africa is available at :

http://www.fuelfreedom.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Fuel-Africa_FINAL.pdf

This study, done in collaboration with Dr Kate McGuinness, was discussed in late September in New York at a breakfast organised as part of the annual meeting of the Clinton Global Initiative.

The radical right is on the offensive

Globalisation and international migrations tend to generate the impression, in the EU public opinion, that that the world out there has become a threat to our standard of living, our jobs, culture and values.  Protectionist ideas are easily gaining ground and can become the extremist banner behind which people could rally. In many ways, both ends of extremist political spectrum can make use of these fears. But it is above all an easy ride for the radical right. They are the ones that can gain more from the exploitation of such feelings. And that explains in no small measure the advances of the right wingers in many parts of the European Continent. And we can expect more of it as well.