On the road

I have been on the road during the last few days. The blog will be back tomorrow. Thank you for your kind attention to my writing. It is important to be read. 

Spying on friends

Friends do not spy on friends. No government, including the US, is authorised to tap the communications of its allied nations’ leaders. This is a very basic principle of healthy alliances.

Keeping this in mind, I fully understand the anger President François Hollande has expressed today when he learned that he, and those before him at the Elysée Palace, have been spied upon by the intelligence services of the US.

Let´s also hope that France is not doing it elsewhere as well. 

Calais is a clear example of political weakness

It was again quite obvious that the French authorities have lost the initiative in Calais. The illegal immigrants are just around, at least 3,000 of them, trying to jump into trains and trucks and cross into the UK. They roam around freely and the police can only react when there is an attempt to board a vehicle.

The point is not about the police. It´s about the political masters losing control of the situation. This is just an example of the lack of political response we see in many parts of the European space. With time the problem will grow much bigger. 

Strategic communications are essential and part of the solution

The EU public opinion matters a lot. People have access to lots of information but the average citizen is still very much influenced by what they watch on TV.

My sense is that the leaders are not communicating well on Greece´s crisis. This is a very sensitive matter that can be easily exploited by any camp that promotes populism, and radicalism, and opposes the EU. It can also weaken further the fragile feeling of common interests.

Every leader has his or her part of responsibility. National leaders should address their national audiences and explain what is at stake and the choices that are being made. Juncker and Tusk, in Brussels, they have likewise to step forward and talk about the issue in a way that goes beyond the sound bites and a patronizing approach. It´s very much their call.  

Tax havens

Hong Kong is included in the just published EU list of tax havens for corporations. It is one of the 30 countries and territories enumerated.

The Hong Kong authorities have reacted with great surprise to their listing. And they are right as the territory has now in place a number of mechanisms to share information. It is true that the territory´s taxes are low. But that´s a political choice. It is part of the competition at the international level.

Many other countries have low corporate taxes and are not listed by the EU. Do you want an example? Look at the Delaware tax system in the US and you will see what competition means. Not to mention Luxembourg, an EU country with a very advantageous tax system for big companies. Luxembourg is not in the list…

Confused leaders are not my cup of tea

I have a problem with leadership. I do not like weak, confused, or misguided leaders. And as I grow older that dislike becomes even more intense. That´s the reason why I am not in party politics. The parties I know are full of them. Unfortunately, because good leadership can make a sea difference. 

Greater risk of confrontation

The seizure by Belgium and France of Russian assets, following a court order of yesterday, is a new dangerous step towards conflict escalation.

I am not saying, let me be clear, that those countries should not implement the court order, which is by the way a response to the illegal confiscation of Youkos´s corporate assets by the Moscow authorities a decade ago. What I am witnessing, with great concern, is an acceleration of the tension between Russia and the West. And experience shows that a greater level of confrontation can lead to a mishap or a miscalculation and become an open clash.

That would be a disaster. But as things keep going these days, one cannot ignore the risks. 

Leadership requires a great amount of patience

Be patient: that´s one of the most important qualities of good leadership. It does not prevent you from fighting for your views but you do it with resolve, a strong sense of opportunity and in an elevated manner. Or, determination, timing and posture are critical for any successful venture.

I recognise it is not easy to be patient. Therefore, you have to keep repeating it to yourself all the time. And in particular, when you are under pressure.

TTIP should be the object of an honest debate

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) – a potential free trade between the EU and the US – is the new rallying flag of all those in Europe who seriously dislike the Americans. As such, it is difficult to find objective assessments on the possible impact – positive and negative – of such an accord.

People attack the likely agreement from a blind position, and in many cases because that´s what they think their intellectual bedfellows expect from a leftist approach.

That´s a pity, as the TTIP is a matter that is too serious to be treated just based on anti-Americanism and on deceitful assumptions about what it means to be on the political Left.  

Greece: calling a spade a spade

Today´s prevailing position on Greece´s fate, in the European political and financial circles that have power, was rather clear: it´s time to call a spade a spade.

This basically means, as I see it, that those leading circles have come to the conclusion that the Greek situation has reached a decisive point. And the decision is to let Greece go its own way. It makes no sense to advocate for a solution that the other side does not accept.

I tend to agree. Default is painful but it is not the end of the road. Argentina and other countries have gone through that experience. Even California did. Default can actually be the beginning of a new cycle.

On the markets side, it looks as if the default possibility is now perceived as inevitable but with a manageable impact.

In the end, those who will be seriously affected are the poor people in the streets and villages of Greece. Unfortunately it´s always like that.