The 2020 Munich Security Conference is not just about the West

Today started the 2020 edition of the Munich Security Conference (MSC). This is an important annual event, that brings together a good number of decision-makers in the fields of diplomacy and international security. It is necessary to pay attention to what is said at the conference, even if the topics that are discussed reflect a lot the German views and concerns on international instability.

This year the key topic is about a strange word that only a German mind could have invented: "Westlessness". For the organisers, this new concept captures two major fears. One is related to the perceived growing uncertainty about the future of the Western world. The other is about a retreating West, in the sense that our democracies are less and less present when it comes to addressing the key issues of the world.

I must confess I do not like the concept. I have written about the absurdity of still believing that we, the Europeans from the EU and the US, should be considered the centre of the world. It is the idea that our values are higher than those prevailing elsewhere. That’s old fashion thinking. Our values are only good if they strength our democratic institutions and keep people like the US President or the Hungarian Prime Minister within the bounds defined by the rule of law and the respect for minority opinions.

We live in a different world. There are now several centres of power, in different parts of the world. Diversity is the new feature. Regional interests are now very different from those the Europeans were used to. We recognise the new set of regional interests. But we expect every government, big or small, to follow without any ambiguity the human rights principles, as adopted by the UN, and to resolve any conflict through peaceful means. Basically, what this means is a return to the UN system, the reinforcement of its authority and the acceptance of the mechanisms that have been put in place during a good number of decades.

Easter and our history

Easter is an essential part of our European culture. It is not necessarily about religion. But it is certainly about our roots, history, traditions and the associate narrative. And all that has nothing to do with bunnies and chocolate eggs. Let’s not mix civilisation with cocoa.

Friendly journalism

It can take months for a well-known, credible journalist to get a visa to enter Syria. Most of the times, the answer is no, no visa. Therefore, be on guard if one news person not only manages to get in but is also given a free hand to roam around as he pleases. Including to walk without a chaperon the streets of Douma, a township that remains out of reach for the UN chemical inspectors.

What do you expect from such a journalist? He is certainly a friend of the Assad circle of power. He will write stories that will go along with the regime´s narrative.

That will be highly appreciated by Assad and his supporters. And even more, if the said journalist comes from the UK or another major Western nation.

We should always keep in mind that the war is also about the way the stories are told and by whom. Propaganda is key in any war effort.  

Hillary Clinton

It is now certain that Hillary Clinton will be the democratic presidential nominee. That´s great news and also pretty reassuring. And one should also underline the excellent results she achieved in California, a key state. That has shown she can mobilize strong support in a dynamic, complex and varied state. I can only wish her well and above all the wisdom to keep saying the right things and be in a position to bring a large number of voters under her banner. She has to be able to win the election in November. The other option would be, sooner or later, a disaster for the US and also for those in the Western world. Let´s have no doubt about it. And also be clear and state it without any type of ambiguity. 

Syria policy review

The refugee influx is re-opening the debate about the EU´s role in Syria and in the region. And my advice is that the reflection should look into every option. But it should, above all, be honest about what´s to be achieved and frank when reviewing the means and ways of achieving such objectives. It cannot be just more dust in the air to gain the impression that we are doing something out there. The challenges are too serious for superficiality and make believe.

Greater risk of confrontation

The seizure by Belgium and France of Russian assets, following a court order of yesterday, is a new dangerous step towards conflict escalation.

I am not saying, let me be clear, that those countries should not implement the court order, which is by the way a response to the illegal confiscation of Youkos´s corporate assets by the Moscow authorities a decade ago. What I am witnessing, with great concern, is an acceleration of the tension between Russia and the West. And experience shows that a greater level of confrontation can lead to a mishap or a miscalculation and become an open clash.

That would be a disaster. But as things keep going these days, one cannot ignore the risks. 

Revise the strategy to destroy the Islamic State

The daily reports are clear. They point to a recent succession of military gains by the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS), both in Syria and Iraq. As I see it, that terrorist group is stronger today than some weeks back. Its ongoing offensives on different fronts show vitality which can only result from new resources, including fresh money and weapons as well as a mass of additional recruits.

The other side of the coin is about weakness. Those opposing IS are today weaker.

The moderate groups in both countries first. They are losing ground and credibility. They have demonstrated they do not have enough vigour to take care of this major challenge. More than ever it is now obvious they necessitate a great amount of external support.

The raids also show that the Western strategy against the terrorist organisation is not working. It has to be revised immediately. Its revision has to focus on a much stronger involvement in the region, through additional deployment of special force units and better coordination among them, more effective and better shared intelligence, and a closer alliance with the Middle Eastern States that oppose IS.

I recognise that a deeper military engagement in Iraq and Syria is a complex and costly matter. But political hesitation is no longer a solution in this case. Public opinion is prepared, in our part of the world, for a serious increase of our military assistance to those who can be our regional and local allies in this combat. We just have to ensure that the alliances are clear and strategic, meaning, they should aim, above everything all, at destroying the IS threat.

Ukraine and the election of the new UN Secretary-General

Have we thought that a collateral damage resulting from the Ukraine crisis is related to the election of the new UN Secretary-general? Up to now it was safe to believe that the new SG, to be elected in 2016, would be a senior figure from Eastern Europe. Now, with the tense situation that has developed between the West and Russia, it is very likely to see Moscow opposing a strong candidate coming from a former member of the Warsaw Pact. Or from a former USSR territory. That puts an end, I believe, to the ambitions some key figures in the Baltic States had been nurturing.

It also increases the chances of someone coming from a smaller Western State. And it gives a new breath of hope to UNDP´s boss, Helen Clark, a New Zealander that would love to be in charge. 

Putin´s isolation

For many, the world, their world, is a dangerous place to live. Just take the example of the farmers in three villages in the Kaduna state, Nigeria, that have been massacred by nomad pastoralists a couple of days ago. Or the people in Syria, who have been in the midst of dreadful civil war for the last three years. Or those in Afghanistan who have only known war for such a long time.

And one could mention many other places.

In view of this, the politics of confrontation that guide Vladimir Putin´s actions in his part of the world are a matter of great concern. They could take us towards open conflict. Therefore, they require a very firm response from the West. Change through rapprochement, the approach we have followed during the last twenty years, is not understood by Putin. He reads in it weakness. That´s very unfortunate. It is therefore time to change our approach. And use isolation and strong diplomacy as the new tools. It is in our interest and certainly in the interest of peace in Europe.

We should not forget that Putin´s hold on power is grounded on the revenue coming from the export of his country´s natural resources. Less trade and less investment will in the end contribute to let him understand we are now in a more interdependent world, where cooperation is more important than confrontation. We only have to find the right way to make such a message crystal clear. 

Bilderberg: a Western old men's joke

Today you and I know that we do not matter. Our names are not in the list of those attending this year’s Bilderberg Conference. This is annual secret get-together of politicians and businessmen that many see as the plotting house of the world. It is indeed a very secretive meeting, its list of attendees is small but powerful, and there are many conspiracy theories about the contents and intent of such annual meetings.

In the 2013 edition, that is just under way in the UK for the first time – the tradition is to have the meetings in the US – there are about 140 participants. Only 14 are women, which seems to show that when it comes to combining power and secrecy the big men do not trust the other gender. Also very interesting, almost everyone in attendance, with one exception, I think, is from a North-American or West European background. This seriously undermines the importance of the Bilderberg process: the world today is much bigger than the White Circles of the West. Even when those circles are bankers, media gurus, and their politicians. 

Uprooted and lost as a young man

In Western Europe, there are thousands of young men like the one that has been captured in Boston or his dead brother.

They are the children of immigrant families that came from afar. Most of those families just ran away from poverty. But many others have left behind violent conflict experiences, be it in the Middle East, in South Asia or in Africa. Or maybe closer by, in the Balkans or the Caucasus. Their sons – it’s indeed a boy’s problem – might have been born in Europe and raised in a peaceful and democratic context but some of them feel uprooted and excluded. They end up by aligning themselves with those who express extremist views about the West. For some, the war in Syria has been an opportunity to join what they believe to be a Cause. Others have been elsewhere, including in Pakistan. These fronts have made them harder and more willing to take action. As such, they represent a major security challenge to the Western European societies. And the experience has shown that this is a challenge that is difficult to match. 

The rule of the Kremlin

I am not sure the Kremlin realises the damaging impact of Mikhail Khodorkovsky's farcical trial on Western European views of present-day Russia. The fact of the matter is that there is little trust left on rule of law in Russia.

It is the rule of Putin that matters, this is how the European citizen sees the situation. And many think that investing in Russia is too hazardous, be it about investing money or political trust.

I have written in the recent past some optimistic pieces about Russia. I am one of those who believes in deepening the engagement. But today's incomprehensible court decision is a major hurdle.