Intermezzo

The first half of August is peak holiday time in our part of Europe. It´s beach time, for many. Even key politicians are walking in their shorts and do not want to be caught by reality. Issues like the one in Calais with the immigrants or question marks about Turkey´s air campaigns in Syria and Iraq, even Greece and its deep economic impasse, are to be kept outside the main screens. During this intermission, it is the temperature of the sea water that matters. And the excellence of a good glass of white wine. The rest will have to wait until the second half of the month. 

Supporting Obama´s policy on Climate Change

I listened to President Obama´s public presentation of the US Climate Change Plan and I was impressed. It was a very convincing speech about a major policy decision that is vital for the world´s common fight for the conservation of our planet. I urge the media and the opinion makers to underline the key measures of this new plan, and to support it. Climate change is indeed a critical issue that needs to be tackled very seriously by the US, the industrialised nations and China, the latter above all. 

The Calais problem calls for an immediate political response

Beyond the dreadful human dimensions, which are quiet visible as one watches the living conditions in the “Jungle Camp”, as the site is called, the Calais immigration crisis has a high economic cost and a strategic political impact.

On the economic side, one should keep in mind the importance of the Calais corridor. It is a vital exchange line between the UK and the European Continent. Last year, about 2.5 million vehicles crossed the Channel carrying goods back and forth. The current situation is causing a colossal trade loss to the British economy: about £ 250 million a day. This is huge figure at a time when economic recovery is still very fragile. Besides that, it is disrupting local movements of people and goods on both sides of the Channel.

At the political level, the crisis is damaging. It is not just a bloody nose on the British or French faces. It basically sends the message that Paris and London have no plan to deal with the situation. Sniffer dogs and additional fences are not the most effective responses. They just leave the issue unresolved. It writes on both political establishments a couple of very nasty words: incompetence and irresoluteness. And, in many ways, both governments give the impression that there is little coordination between them, besides some joint photo opportunities.

The problem will not fade away. It calls for decisive measures. The politicians must take their responsibilities and lead the way.

But they are not doing it. Thus, let me add a suggestion.

I see only one way forward: to legalise what is at present unlawful. In this case, both governments would implement a major police operation and round up the immigrants, all of them – nobody knows how many they are, but the accepted figure comes to around 3,000. Then, the authorities would take them to processing centres, to identify and summarily check their backgrounds. The following stage would be to give the vast majority of them permit papers and allow them to settle in. The UK would take the greater number and other countries would accept the balance. This option would show resoluteness combined with pragmatism and attention to social considerations and the economic consequences of the status quo. It should be combined with additional security measures aimed at slowing down future arrivals in the region. More specifically, the authorities would put across very clear messages stating that there is no way the illegal passage would be allowed. Those attempting to do it could be arrested and swiftly deported.

I have also looked at other options. But the above one stands out as the only sensible approach at this stage. Everything else is either to be blind to a major issue of great complexity or an attempt to transfer the problem to the neighbour. 

The origin of power...

I spent some time yesterday afternoon visiting a small village in Central Portugal, not far from Pombal but in the municipality of Ansião. It is located about 185 km North of Lisbon and its name is Santiago da Guarda.

 In the middle of the village, there is part of an ancient Roman villa, very well preserved and worth the visit. The dwelling was a large one, around 1,300 square metres. Its size, the design and the quality of the tile floorings show clearly this house was then built for a very powerful family. And that´s particularly intriguing, as Santiago da Guarda is on a mountain in a region that could only be of interest, 16 or 17 centuries ago, for rearing small ruminants.

It is a fact we know little about the basis of political and economic power at the time. We know a bit more about today´s power basis, don´t we? 

The absolute and unique target should be the IS structures

In Syria and Iraq, the main goals are by far to bring peace and stability back as well as to endeavour for democracy and rule of law.

In the current circumstances, the achievement of such priorities passes by the destruction of the Islamic State. The neutralization of their command-and-control structure is the most urgent step, the overriding concern. Every alliance should be directed at fighting IS. Placing other groups in the bull´s-eye is a very serious political and strategic mistake.

We have to be clear about it. Among ourselves and vis-à-vis our friends and allies. 

One more thought on leadership

Nothing can be taken for granted any longer. Change happens pretty fast and even institutions and systems that looked pretty steady can find themselves under serious challenge. In this type of circumstances, one should always be willing to consider the unexpected and the absurd. That´s in many ways the new approach to leadership: to be able to imagine the unthinkable and have prepared the appropriate answers just in case it happens. 

Hungary and the immigration into the EU

Every passing week shows that the immigration issues are just getting worse in the EU. Hungary, for instance, has been on the news because of the decision to build a wall at the border with Serbia. The barrier should prevent, as much as it is possible, new immigrants from crossing into Hungary and from there moving into Austria, Germany or elsewhere into the richer corners of the EU.

Its construction has started.

We can criticise the decision, of course.

But above all it is an indication that there is no joint policy on immigration within Europe. And it also hides the facts. In 2013, Hungary received about 2 000 requests for asylum. Last year, the figure jumped to 43 000. And this year, it has already gone beyond 83 000. These figures alone give us a better understanding of the size of the problem. They should also be seen as part of the broader picture, meaning, we have in 2015 a true problem in our hands. And no common will to address it.

Turkey and the Kurdish question

The Turkish air raids against the IS terror group are very much welcome. However, the bombing of Kurdish positions in Northern Iraq, linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party, also known by its initials PKK, are provoking a serious disquiet within European circles. 

The EU does not see the PKK as a terrorist organization. It changed its position in 2008 and its current approach is to encourage both sides – the Ankara government and PKK – to find a political agreement to their conflict. This should lead to constitutional changes, including some degree of acceptance of the Kurdish people´s rights and Kurdistan as an autonomous entity within Turkey.

There has been a cease-fire since 2013. But that is now under serious risk of falling apart.

In the meantime, it has been announced that the NATO Council will meet on Tuesday at the request of Turkey to discuss IS and also PKK-related matters. It will be important to listen to Ankara´s views. And it would also be critical that such views take into account the opinions of Turkey´s allies.

Turkey has taken the right decisions

The most expected decision has finally been taken by the Turkish President. From now on, the US Air Force is allowed to make use of Turkey´s military airports to launch air raids against IS targets. This will increase the operational capacity of the American planes as the flying distances become much shorter for missions related to Syria.

In addition, President Erdogan has also authorised his own air force to target IS infrastructure in Syria. This is also a very critical decision. If it is properly implemented, it will add a good amount of pressure on the terrorist group.

In the meantime, the neutralization of IS top fighters has gained a new pace. That approach is certainly the most effective way of degrading the capacity of the organization. It requires, however, a new level of intelligence exchange between the allied forces. Particularly a much stronger determination to share from the Turkish side. 

Diversity is a new feature within the EU

Immigration keeps changing the face of Europe. Even in this corner of the EU called Portugal. We have now people that have come from other countries within the EU as well as people that travelled to us from afar. Every day I discover, in the vicinity of my residence, someone that came from a foreign land to work in Portugal.

This is a new reality and people have adjusted to it, in some countries better than in others. But there are serious risks of violent rejection as well.

In the end, the bottom line is about respect and tolerance. Mutual tolerance, of course, from both sides. And also about making sure that opportunistic politicians do not take advantage of immigration issues to create societal divisions and conflicts. They are actually the greatest danger in societies that have a good number of immigrants.