On Turkey and Iraq

At the same time the offensive against the Islamic State terrorists moves on towards Mosul city, we have seen a very serious Turkish military build-up on the border areas with Iraq. Apparently the leadership in Ankara has decided to launch a major armed operation inside Iraq, as a means of stopping the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).

This Kurdish group is seen as major threat by the Turkish government.

But one should be aware that any major military incursion into Iraq would further complicate a very delicate and dangerous situation. The Turkish authorities have the right to defend their borders. There is no ambiguity about that. However, they should refrain from getting deeply involved in the internal affairs of Iraq. That would add fire to the region. 

Getting ready for the EU-Turkey Summit

The next summit between the EU and Turkey will take place this Sunday in Brussels. The key issue, on the European agenda, is about migrations and the role the government of Ankara could play to control the flux from Turkey to Europe.

Turkey will be represented by its Prime Minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu. He is a smart negotiator. He knows he comes to Brussels in a strong position and he will take advantage of that to try to obtain as many concessions from the Europeans as possible. He wants more money to compensate Turkey´s for the refugee presence in the country, visa facilities for the Turks, and a firmer calendar for the negotiations related to his country´s accession to full EU membership.

The EU side should balance the Turkish position with a couple of requests that will put Davutoğlu at his place. The Europeans should remind him that freedom of the press is a critical criteria for European membership. On this, Turkey is going squarely in the wrong direction. They should also recall that human rights and the rights of the minorities are key pillars in any democracy. They have to be enshrined on the Constitution and fully implemented.

These reminders would level off the discussion. They will also show the Turks we see them as important partners but we are not afraid of talking the talk and be frank. That´s how diplomacy needs to be carried out in the days of now.   

President Erdogan ´s victory should be an opportunity for moderation

President Erdogan´s party has won today´s general elections in Turkey. As the victory is not a political tsunami, but enough to give him a solid majority in the national Parliament, one could hope for a certain degree of moderation to be restored to Turkish politics.

This is however very unlikely. I am afraid Erdogan will continue to press for a domestic agenda that combines religious conservatism with a strong shade of despotism. But he can count with very serious civil society demonstrations. People in the big cities are not really prepared for additional limitations to their freedoms. In addition, the Kurdish question will not fade away. It is actually calling for a renewed approach to dialogue and reconciliation. Erdogan cannot respond to such a call with weapons, arrests and brute force.

On the external front, Erdogan will have to play a constructive role in Syria. That´s his most important contribution to peace and stability in the region. He will be also under some kind of European pressure to bring under control the human trafficking that is taking place on the Turkish shores of the Mediterranean Sea. To claim he is in charge and at the same time allow free space for traffickers and other criminal elements to take advantage of the human misery is a major contradiction that needs to be exposed.

The leaders within the EU have also to be better at defining a common approach to Ankara. Such an approach cannot be dictated by despair, by the leaders´ incapacity to deal with the refugee flows that have their assembly points in Turkey.

The absolute and unique target should be the IS structures

In Syria and Iraq, the main goals are by far to bring peace and stability back as well as to endeavour for democracy and rule of law.

In the current circumstances, the achievement of such priorities passes by the destruction of the Islamic State. The neutralization of their command-and-control structure is the most urgent step, the overriding concern. Every alliance should be directed at fighting IS. Placing other groups in the bull´s-eye is a very serious political and strategic mistake.

We have to be clear about it. Among ourselves and vis-à-vis our friends and allies. 

Turkey and the Kurdish question

The Turkish air raids against the IS terror group are very much welcome. However, the bombing of Kurdish positions in Northern Iraq, linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party, also known by its initials PKK, are provoking a serious disquiet within European circles. 

The EU does not see the PKK as a terrorist organization. It changed its position in 2008 and its current approach is to encourage both sides – the Ankara government and PKK – to find a political agreement to their conflict. This should lead to constitutional changes, including some degree of acceptance of the Kurdish people´s rights and Kurdistan as an autonomous entity within Turkey.

There has been a cease-fire since 2013. But that is now under serious risk of falling apart.

In the meantime, it has been announced that the NATO Council will meet on Tuesday at the request of Turkey to discuss IS and also PKK-related matters. It will be important to listen to Ankara´s views. And it would also be critical that such views take into account the opinions of Turkey´s allies.

Turkey and its approach to the Islamic State bandits

Just a very simple question: what is Turkey doing to fight the terrorists that call themselves the Islamic State? The Turkish government is indeed very difficult to understand. 

Striking ISIS is a good decision

President Obama´s decision to strike ISIS extremists in Northern Iraq should be supported by a large number of opinion-makers. It is time to say no to that type of medieval savagery as the one implemented by these fanatics.

This is a good point for the current administration in Washington at a time when the same administration has been losing credibility because of their vacillating position regarding Israel´s violations of international law and the lunacy of Hamas´s political decisions.

The strategic interest of the Middle East is tapering

The Middle East, defined in broad terms to include both Egypt and Iran, and the countries in between, remains the most unstable region of the world. It includes very dramatic and intricate crisis, such as the ones in Syria, Palestine, Lebanon, and very fragile governance regimes, such as the ones in Jordan, Iraq and Bahrain, without mentioning Saudi Arabia, which many consider to be experiencing the initial symptoms of instability. It is also home to serious ethnic and sectarian conflicts, as the Kurd situation, which concerns several countries, the rivalries between Sunni and Shia power elites, and the proliferation of extremist groups illustrate. The region is also deeply affected by Israel’s policy towards the Palestinian people.

View from the West, the region has lost a good deal of its strategic importance. Oil from the Middle East can now easily be replaced by oil from other parts of the world, including the US and Canada. Oil is therefore a much weaker argument when looking at the Western interests in the region. Religious fundamentalism and its violent manifestations are still a reason to pay attention to the region. But even in that domain, home-grown fundamentalism in the EU and the US are now getting more attention than distant threats that might be taking roots in the Middle East.

Also, from a trading perspective, the region is perceived as a small market, notwithstanding the wealth available within some of its leading circles.

The trend is therefore to switch the attention away from the Middle East to other parts of the world.