Juncker´s options

Now that Jean-Claude Juncker has presented his ideas about the options regarding the future of the EU, a matter that I will discuss in the next writings, it has become apparent that the Germans and the French have decided to support Juncker and accept his implicit suggestion that they should become again the core engine of the European project. Both governments back Juncker´s views that see different groupings of countries opting for distinct levels of integration. Also, they are convinced that this is no time for a change at top of the European Commission. That´s the reason they want to be seen as keen supporters of Juncker´s full mandate. 

When the generals write open letters

Over 120 US flag officers – generals and admirals – wrote an open letter yesterday to remind the key leaders of Congress and the top people in the Trump administration in charge of foreign affairs, defence and security that national security is a complex issue. It calls for a comprehensive approach that goes well beyond the military means and the armed response.

In today´s world, national security and the protection of key strategic interests are above all done through means of healthy diplomatic relations, efficient development cooperation and other external programmes that combat poverty, exclusion, disease and bad governance.

As such, these top commanders urge the Administration and the representatives of the American people to keep the investment of public resources on those programmes that fall under the State Department and have been designed and improved over time in order to more effectively prevent conflict in other parts of the globe.

This is a position that calls for wide support. It is the modern way of looking at international relations and of promoting peace and stability. Its relevance is even greater because it is stated by people that know about matters of war and peace. They understand the limitations of the use of armed forces. They are also people who have seen the world. They know what they are talking about.

The link to the letter is the following: 

http://www.usglc.org/2017/02/27/over-120-retired-generals-admirals-on-state-and-usaid-budget-now-is-not-the-time-to-retreat/

German politics

Martin Schulz spent many years in Brussels first as Member of European Parliament and in the end, as its President (Speaker). A few weeks ago, he returned to his native Germany and took the leadership of his party, the SPD (Social Democrat). He is now campaigning throughout the country, with the forthcoming legislative elections in mind. The elections will take place at the end of September. That´s a long way down the line. An eternity, in political terms, particularly now, that everything goes fast and can change even faster. He is competing against Angela Merkel, who will be fighting for a fourth term as leader of Germany. That´s a formidable challenge. But Schulz is doing well. He is seen as potential winner. That´s good, in politics.

In any case, we are fortunate to have Merkel and Schulz as the key competitors in Germany. They are both balanced leaders and people without fear. They are also resolutely pro-Europeans. Their presence in the front lines is good news for the EU.

On EU matters: let´s move on

The EU´s future is at a crossroads. My choice is to move forward. But not every member state will be prepared for a closer integration process. They have their national circumstances and might consider this is no time to enter into new power sharing agreements. I accept that. The union has to result from a shared and voluntary political approach.

Those countries that are ready for a deeper relationship should however be able to move on. The treaties allow it under the principle of “enhanced co-operation”. And there are a number of areas that would benefit from more co-operation and harmonization among a certain number of states. One of them is for sure in the field of defence. To be complemented by new forms of domestic security interoperability. Other areas would be in the financial and economic fields, in scientific research, higher education and student’s exchange, and external affairs.

The point is to decide on a new set of common goals and then invite the member states to pool their resources and political will. Several will join. And history will move on.

It would be a mistake to believe that every European country will share the same level of ambition. It is also a major impediment not to show leadership and wait for a consensus. That will never happen.

EU and Defence: additional considerations

Taking into account the ongoing discussions on military budgets, I went back to the text approved at the NATO Summit of 2014, in Wales. The paragraph 5 of "The Wales Declaration on the Transatlantic Bond" is quoted below. It´s worth a careful reading of its words.

"We recognise that these steps will take the necessary effort and funding. In light of this, we agree to reverse the trend of declining defence budgets and aim to increase defence expenditure in real terms as GDP grows; we will direct our defence budgets as efficiently and effectively as possible; we will aim to move towards the existing NATO guideline of spending 2% of GDP on defence within a decade, with a view to fulfilling NATO capability priorities. We will display the political will to provide required capabilities and deploy forces when they are needed."

This commitment follows the recognition stated in the last sentence of the previous paragraph. I quote it as well.

"We will continue to invest in modern and deployable armed forces that can operate effectively together and at a high level of readiness to fulfil NATO's tasks, in full accordance with the principles of the UN Charter and the Helsinki Final Act." 

And I would underline the following points:

-             Interoperability and readiness are key dimensions in terms of greater joint effectiveness;

-            Additional defence expenditure is linked to economic growth;

-             Budget allocations should be reviewed to respond to new priorities and up-to-date military approaches and to ensure a more appropriate funding of the new roles of the armed forces as required by a new type of threats;

-            The 2% goal is a guideline and it should be gradually build up to 2014; it cannot happen in the short term;

-           The States must be willing to participate in joint operations and be perceived as able to rapidly respond to needs as they arise, taking into account the capabilities of each nation.

I also find the references to the UN Charter and to the Helsinki Final Act essential. They should be continuously recalled.  

The defence challenge

On defence matters, the EU countries have no other option but to pool resources together. That´s the future and that´s the only way to realise our own share of responsibilities. It´s time to see things from a joint perspective. We are talking about the defence of Europe, not just about the protection of country A or B within the EU. If country A is attacked tomorrow, other countries will be destabilised soon after. What is at stake is our common EU future as democracies and countries that respect the rule of law and the distinct role of the key political institutions.  

There are many inefficiencies and a good deal of overlapping expenditures in between countries. All that needs to be streamlined and approached from a complementary perspective that goes beyond the national borders and the old concept of individual sovereignty in matters of defence.

Unfortunately that´s not easy to achieve. In many parts of the European space, the armed forces are still seen from a national angle only. The challenge is to convince the citizens that that´s no longer the way forward. 

Romania´s street lessons

The people of Romania have been demonstrating on the streets for the least 15 days or so. The rallying cry is against official corruption, the abuse of power the elected authorities exert for their own advantage and enrichment. And there are plenty of cases: thousands of accusations have been made by the special prosecutor and her office since 2013. People want the current government, led by the Social Democrats to leave office. This government has tried to save from the justice quite a number of past politicians who have been accused of corruption.

As I see the masses on the streets, braving the extreme weather conditions, I come to the conclusion that a number of points should be underlined. They must make us think.

The prosecution is headed by a very brave woman, Laura Codruta Kovesi. She is in charge of the anti-corruption agency, which comprises a good number of young lawyers and prosecutors. Kovesi has shown that leadership, honesty and modesty can change a country.

The political parties have no role in the popular mobilization. They have been side-lined, overtaken. This is civil society in action. There are no stars, no street leaders. It´s citizen’s power at its best.

The traditional media has also been overtaken. The information is shared through social networks. It´s faster, free of charge, and much more creative and closer to the people´s concerns. The established press comes later, just to pick the information and report about the events. But plays no role in the heat of the action.

Many of those on the streets are young people with a good level of education and a higher level of social frustration. Their participation creates some hope that change might happen. 

Juncker´s faux pas

Jean-Claude Juncker has announced he will not seek re-election at the end of his current term as President of the European Commission. I doubt the wisdom of such a disclosure. He still has almost three years to go before the end of his mandate. An early announcement weakens his position at a time the EU needs strong leadership. Furthermore, this decision can be read as a statement of despair when we need to revive the sentiment of hope in the future of the Union.

Juncker might be very bitter about the present state of affairs. He can say so. Actually, he should say it but with elegance. At the same time, he must be seen as a fighter and not as a quitter. In his position, criticism has to be tempered with room for a change of course. By making public his state of mind about his own future he has further contributed to the climate of gloom that is permeating many European circles. He must correct that. 

Choppy waters and calm leaders

Notwithstanding the recent political developments in the US, the European leaders should keep a cool approach and fight every manifestation of anti-Americanism.

The EU and the US have been, for many decades, key allies and it´s in their mutual interest to keep it that way.

In terms of social progress, prosperity and peace, alliances between countries are the only way forward. Each side should bring to the fore the best it can offer. That does not mean, of course, that there will be agreement every time. Relations between countries touch a complex and varied number of dimensions, from security to trade and investment, in addition to more political matters, including the promotion of human values, liberties and rights. There will be times when the interpretations of the interests at play might diverge.

The challenge, for the leaders, is to find common ground. And if one of the sides keeps going in a direction that deviates from the traditional path, the duty of the other side is to be firm and clear. And remind everyone that what keeps us together can be seriously undermined by a narrow view of international politics. It can also be tremendously damaged by political amateurism, retrograde beliefs, personal arrogance and a short term view of one´s national interests.

France´s complexities

I lost my bet. I told a couple of friends that François Fillon, the French conservative leader, would resign from the presidential race before the weekend. But he is still struggling on, apparently convinced that his best option lays in remaining in the contest. So I was wrong, the man is still kicking.

After all the revelations about his extraordinary and unjustified use of public monies to pay his wife and two children, for work that seemingly never happened, Fillon has lost a very good deal of credibility. He was, up to the disclosures, the candidate everybody thought would win the French presidency in May. Now, his chances have simply evaporated.

Fillon´s fall from grace can have a major negative impact on the conservative camp and also on the outcome of the elections. Some of his voters will move further right and might end up by supporting Marine Le Pen, the extreme-right flag bearer.

For the democratic camp, the challenge is to prevent such move. There is a real danger here. Le Pen can benefit from the deep discontent that was already present in the French society and that Fillon´s scandal has seriously contributed to exacerbate. In addition, it will be essential to attract many of those supporters to the centre field. That´s not very easy to achieve but it is possible. That´s where all the efforts should be focused.