The new Boris Johnson

I do not see the world the way Boris Johnson does. But I accept he is a great political campaigner, someone who knows that in today’s complex world people want simple messages to be put across and a clear show of determination. He did both. And he won, a huge victory by all means. He has five years of power in front of him. Let’s see if he is as good at exercising it as he has been at canvassing for it.

He will govern a very divided country. His choices are clear: either he keeps deepening the sharp split or he opts for a moderate route that can make a good part of the opposition feel comfortable with his governance. I think he knows the latter is the only way forward. He cannot contribute to the augmentation of the political divide; he cannot ignore those who want to keep a close relationship with the European Union. That includes the Scottish people.

The United Kingdom must keep a strong link with the EU. Boris Johnson is smart enough to understand that and strong enough, within his party, to impose such a political line. The only question mark is about his balance: will he be wise enough to seek a compromise with the EU? I don’t know. And I am afraid he might not have that kind of wisdom. He might fall into the old trap that makes British people believe they are better than their neighbours. That would be a serious mistake. Let’s hope it will not happen.

British general elections

It is still to early to know the outcome of the British elections. It will be inappropriate to try to guess the results, a couple of hours before the closing of the polling stations. Better wait for the headlines and the details tomorrow morning. Whatever comes out of the voting, it will have a major impact on the UK and, in some ways, in the rest of Europe. These are no ordinary elections. And many, particularly the younger people, got to understand it.

Macron's days of destiny

President Emmanuel Macron is trying to reform the anachronic French pension system. It is a major task in a country that is used to keep the acquired advantages, even when there is no logical reason for that. Moreover, even when they are no longer sustainable and have lost the foundations that could justify them. Such reform requires strong political will and an extremely smart approach. The President seems to have the political will, at least in some degree. But I am not sure he has the ability that is necessary to navigate such a stormy matter. Determination without a good dose of ingenuity leads to defeat.

Europe and Africa: looking for a renewed cooperation

Ursula von der Leyen, the new European Commission President, travelled to Addis Ababa to meet the Chairman of the African Union, Moussa Faki. This is a great political gesture. It shows the priority she wants to give to the cooperation with the African institutions.

I am sure Moussa Faki appreciated the move. He is a very fine politician and knows that it is in the advantage of both sides to deepen the cooperation. It has also to become more strategic. Von der Leyen’s message was basically that it is up to the Africans to propose the agenda.

At the end of the NATO Day

As I look at leaders ‘meeting, and the way they look at their own forces, always over-estimating the capacity of their forces and inter-states cooperation, I want to shout that too much confidence on your abilities defeats you in the end. It has always been like that and I see no reason for it to be different this time.

On the anniversary of NATO

All along, I have listened to a good number of dinner speakers. And I have noticed that, in general, they believe that a successful speech is the one that confirms the views of the attendees. They end up by seeing themselves as “comfort speakers”, as I would call them, invited to reinforce the prevailing ideas that have already gained a seat around the table.

That has been the case, for instance, on matters related to NATO. I mention the Alliance as its leaders get together in London to celebrate its 70^th anniversary. And I recall that I have repeated at a few occasions the Organisation needs an independent view of its relevance and role. They should even listen to some “positive contrarians” – another expression I use –, people that are ready to raise some fundamental questions instead of just re-stating dogmatic or diplomatic views.

I would also like to recall another of my frequent messages to senior officers: we can only succeed if we consult, de-conflict and harmonise our respective strategic and operational interests.  

NATO and the Sahel

As we approach the door of the London NATO Summit, which opens on 3 December, we cannot ignore one of the key questions the Alliance must address: what kind of role should it play in North Africa and the Sahel?

But before answering it, the member States should recognise that such region is closely linked to some important European countries. Its security will have an impact on those countries, sooner or later. And not just on matters of illegal migrations. An expansion of terrorist groups out there will end up by spilling over to Europe.

One cannot look at North Africa and the Sahel as if they were in a far corner of the world.

The approaches towards the future of European defence

When it comes to European defence, it is not either the US or Turkey that count. It is basically how the issue is seen by the French, the Germans and the Poles. The British, with the Brexit imbroglio, have somehow stepped aside. Each one of these three nations lead a different school of thought on the matter. And, in many ways, the Poles are more influential than what many outside analysts think. On top of that, they tend to voice positions that are not too far from the feelings we find within the US side. In this context, the strategy must follow a gradual approach, step by step, starting with less controversial areas. And it has to consider what should be the future of NATO in the Europe of tomorrow.

Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker

Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker completed today their mandates as leaders of the EU. I think it is fair to say that both have committed themselves deeply to their jobs. Donald Tusk as head of the Council had to manage and balance the views of his peers, the Heads of State and Government of the EU Member States. Not an easy job. One of his headaches came from his own country, Poland. Jean-Claude Juncker had to lead the machinery and achieve results, notwithstanding the fact that, at the same time, he was dealing with a major distraction, the Brexit negotiations.

As they move on, I think one should say thank you for the work they have done as well as for the enormous patience they have displayed. And we should know that patience and perseverance are two of the key features a leader should possess. Particularly a leader that deals with 28 national masters.

The new EU Commission

The new European Commission top team, led by Ursula von der Leyen, has been approved by the Members of the European Parliament. They are now ready to start their five-year mandate. I can only hope they will be able to respond to the challenges ahead and remain credible.

The challenges are many. For me, the most important one concerns the unity of Europe. This is an area that is under attack, both from inside and from some of our neighbours, allies or foes. Therefore, it must be protected and strengthened. The Commission must keep reminding all of us of our common destiny as Europeans. It’s about unity within diversity, as a German person is certainly different, in many aspects, from a Portuguese. But both and all share the same fundamental values of human rights, fairness and dignity. All want to see the European streets kept safe, the rural areas protected, the equality between boys and girls promoted, and ensure that the older citizens feel tranquil and enjoy a dignified end of life. It’s also about the beef, of course. By promoting the European unity, the Commission is supporting a balanced economic growth and job security. In a context of sustainability, which means a lot on terms of addressing the urgency of the climate crisis.

I wish the new team well.