The judges and the economic crisis

The judgement issued by Germany’s Constitutional Court regarding the European Central Bank’s bond purchasing programme must be taken very seriously. It challenges the autonomy of the Bank, it gets the judges into monetary and fiscal matters, where the Court is not necessarily in familiar territory, and, above all undermines the authority and the mandate of the European Court of Justice. In the end, the judgement imperils the European Union itself.

But it came as no surprise. Many in Germany and elsewhere are still looking at some other European countries through the lenses of historical prejudice.

In any case, it must be responded to in a manner that is as comprehensive as possible. The ECB will take its part. It should be able to produce the justification the Constitutional Court requires. And key European politicians must state in clear terms the ultimate authority of the European Court of Justice. More concretely, Angela Merkel should come up with a statement that would underline the exceptionality of the current crisis and the need to go beyond the conventional approaches. It should add a word of respect for the Constitutional Court, of course, and, at the same time, remind everyone that the ECB’s plans and decisions are fundamental to overcome the calamity we are in.

Notes about China and Europe

In the last few days, I have re-tweeted some articles on China, must of them without a personal note about their content. Just sharing. I did it because I think we need to have, in this part of the world where I live, a serious debate about the future of our relations with China.

Looking ahead, my starting points are two. First, the growing hostility between the US and China is dangerous for both countries and for the rest of us. I have written about that and I will keep repeating it. I see such antagonism spreading in the US, both among Republicans and Democrats. And it has now reached some other circles in the West, from Australia to Europe. The second point is that the European Union must engage positively with China, meaning, in a balanced and frank way, defining clearly what we expect from this relationship and what are the limits we cannot cross. The Chinese would be expected to do the same. Such dialogue would be based on the understanding that both sides would gain from a close and fair relationship.

I do not want to spend time commenting on the internal politics of China. However, I should be clear about such an important matter. My approach is that there are values we all must follow. The list would include freedom of speech, human rights, and acceptance of political diversity. A leading country must be a sharp example of full respect for such values. In our dialogue with China, as well as in our policy discussions with the US, Russia, and others that play paramount roles in the world, we cannot ignore such values. The younger generations expect us to act based on fundamental principles, that are common to all peoples.

Having said that, I do recognise the great achievements the Chinese can legitimately claim and the potential they have for further innovation and the betterment of their society. I also know some of the contributions they made to the growth of other nations. All that is incredibly positive. I am also aware of China’s increased contributions to peace, security, and development in various parts of the world.

There is -- and there will be in the times ahead of us -- a good number of Western politicians that will try to gain popular support by systematically attacking the Beijing leadership. Please do not count me in that group.

The forthcoming confrontation

Tomorrow’s world should be better than yesterday. We should be able to learn a few lessons from the major crisis the world is in at present and organise ourselves in a more reasonable and humane way, as we overcome the pandemic. We should become better at international cooperation, at joint research and more responsive to the environment and poverty challenges. That might not happen, some might even say it is an impossible dream, but we must keep repeating it. The message cannot be silenced. In the meantime, we can expect major changes in international relations. The main fight will be between China and the US. As I see it, and as I fear it, we are getting to a point of no return, meaning, they both must battle the other side to be able to survive as superpowers. They both have the vocation to be competing superpowers, with two vastly different visions of the world politics. As such, they are heading towards an open confrontation. That is an extremely dangerous new development. It must be stopped. And that can only be done if we have a strong European Union, that can bring a new equilibrium to the international scene.

Hoping we will be sage and visionary

I can only hope that May will be a good transition month. I believe it can be if everyone in leadership positions understands that consultations and coordination between nations that have a similar destiny are crucial. Within the European Union, we need a renewed momentum, a stronger role coming from Brussels, and more discussions between key national leaders. There is no recovery if it is not done jointly.

Kim Jong-un keeps smiling

Today’s news is that Kim Jong-un is back. There has been a lot of speculation about his health. Now, thanks to the photos made available by the Korean Central News Agency, we know he is alive and smiling. He is also a bit fatter. That might be the result of some good time at his holiday villa, by the Sea of Japan. His sister, Kim Yo-jong, who is a powerful figure in the political landscape of mysterious North Korea, could tell him he should do some dieting. She appears in one of the pictures just next to him. That shows her importance and influence, I would dare to say.

In any case, Kim Yo-jong, who is a young person – age 32 years –, is now being studied and followed by several special people in the West. She might have a future in tomorrow’s North Korea. The country remains a family business.

May Day 2020

It is International Workers' Day. That is an important date for many in Europe and in other regions of the world. We celebrate the working people’s rights. And I add to that my deep appreciation for those who keep struggling to survive. Particularly currently when most of the economic system is upside down. At the same time, as I look ahead, I see continued disruption and new levels of hardship. And I do not see the collective political will that a situation like the present one would require. Each leader is hiding behind national border walls. That is the wrong approach. We need regional and international joint efforts. As we need to promote cooperation between the big economies, including the US and China. Harsh words, bellicose statements, at this stage, do take us in the wrong direction. Leaders that follow that path will be severely assessed by future generations.

Fake news

This April has been an exceedingly difficult month for so many all over the world. We know the reason, the visible reason. But behind it, there is a lot that remains unclear. And when the clarity is missing, some people just take advantage to launch their own campaigns, particularly those fellows who have ill intentions. That explains the large number of fake news that is spread through social platforms daily. Unfortunately, those fakes get lots of followers. And they are amplified by bots, internet robots. One of them is about the 5G telecommunications network. I wonder who might be behind the crusade against 5G. Who would gain by sabotaging that advanced system? The fact of the matter is that someone or some organisation is trying to undermine the credibility of the fifth-generation technology for cellular networks.

Let the planes fly

One of my messages is clear. International travel should restart as soon as possible. There are enough means to control the health condition of passengers before departure and upon arrival. And the airlines can organise the space inside the planes, to guarantee a minimum of safety. This is a sector that is in dire straits. It must be given a chance to come back. But I am convinced we will see some big changes soon. The airlines will have to rethink their business model. And, in some cases, we might watch some companies just moving out of the business. Their viability is far from being possible. And we cannot have public money being spent just to keep them in the skies.  

The transition ahead of us

Many of us are now getting tired of the lockdown. This is, therefore, a dangerous period, when people start looking for opportunities to escape the quarantine and become more critical of the authorities. They are also feeling the squeeze when it comes to their income. Many families have been living on small budgets. They are at the limit of what they can sustain. They want to go back to the economy. They think it should be possible if adequate protection measures are implemented. Long transition periods might be wise from a public health point of view but have serious political costs. Governments must be clear when explaining the way the transition is expected to work. That is a task that requires top attention.

The balance that must be found

There is fear and growing poverty, in most corners of the world. We witness uncertainty and despair. The pandemic is killing people and destroying livelihoods. These are the two critical dimensions that must be tackled as a matter of great priority. Both are very urgent matters. The wise leader is the one that can strike the right balance between them. And who knows how the balance should evolve. That means, among other things, that an absolute and prolonged lockdown, with no economy, is not a balanced approach. It is not even necessary if there are enough masks to go around and the appropriate human behaviours are followed.

I just learned, for instance, that Argentina has decided to close its commercial airspace up to September. That is too long and certainly not a sage decision. A country like Argentina, which is already in an awfully bad economic shape, should approach any drastic decision with lots of prudence. The same, elsewhere. I mention Argentina as just an example.