Vladmir Putin is testing NATO

 

https://www.dn.pt/opiniao/a-r%C3%BAssia-ataca-a-pol%C3%B3nia-quando-von-der-leyen-estava-a-rever-o-seu-discurso-sobre-o-estado-da-uni%C3%A3o-europeia

The text in your document, as published today in Diário de Notícia (Lisbon, 12/09/2025) provides a detailed analysis of the geopolitical situation involving Russia, the European Union, and NATO. Here are some key points:

1. Strategic Timing by Putin: The text highlights how Vladimir Putin strategically timed a drone attack on Poland just before the annual State of the Union address by Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission 1. This move is portrayed as a calculated effort to disrupt and challenge the EU and NATO 1.

2. EU's Role in Defense: The document discusses the limited but crucial role of the European Commission in defense matters, particularly in proposing sanctions and managing hybrid conflicts 1. The 19th sanctions package, which includes the use of interest from Russian sovereign deposits to fund Ukrainian military and administrative expenses, is a significant point 1.

3. Military and Financial Programs: The text mentions the SAFE program, which allocates €150 billion to enhance military capacity and cooperation among EU member states 1. This is seen as a step towards strengthening the European pillar of NATO and balancing relations with the US 1.

4. Information Warfare: The importance of combating misinformation and strategic narratives is emphasized 1. The text argues that Europe needs to invest more in communication to explain the Russian threat to its citizens, especially as the US withdraws from joint efforts against Russian disinformation campaigns 1.

5. Human Rights and International Cooperation: The document also touches on the EU's commitment to human rights, social justice, and international cooperation 1. It calls for sanctions against extremist Israeli actions and diplomatic initiatives to promote peace in Gaza and Palestine 1.

Overall, the text is well-structured and provides a comprehensive overview of the current geopolitical challenges and the EU's strategic responses. It effectively combines analysis with specific examples and proposed measures.

Is there anything specific you would like to discuss or any particular feedback you are looking for? 😊

1: From your document.

Iran's growing dependence on China

Iran is counting on China’s investments and political support. China will become the most powerful ally of Iran. Oil is one of the reasons, but not the only one. They are now negotiating a cooperation framework for the next 25 years. All in all, Iran will become seriously dependent on China.

As the Americans invest in their relationship with the Saudis, the Chinese can only get interested on the opposing side. Saudi Arabia and Iran are fierce rivals in the region. A good deal of the future of the Middle East will derive from such rivalry. But behind it, there is the growing and dangerous competition between the US and China.

The forthcoming confrontation

Tomorrow’s world should be better than yesterday. We should be able to learn a few lessons from the major crisis the world is in at present and organise ourselves in a more reasonable and humane way, as we overcome the pandemic. We should become better at international cooperation, at joint research and more responsive to the environment and poverty challenges. That might not happen, some might even say it is an impossible dream, but we must keep repeating it. The message cannot be silenced. In the meantime, we can expect major changes in international relations. The main fight will be between China and the US. As I see it, and as I fear it, we are getting to a point of no return, meaning, they both must battle the other side to be able to survive as superpowers. They both have the vocation to be competing superpowers, with two vastly different visions of the world politics. As such, they are heading towards an open confrontation. That is an extremely dangerous new development. It must be stopped. And that can only be done if we have a strong European Union, that can bring a new equilibrium to the international scene.

Dreaming ahead

I have been asked that question, but I try not to respond to it. And then, they ask it again, my opinion about which country is likely to gain from the current dreadful crisis, in terms of geopolitics and dominance. They want me to say China, others they expect me to mention the possibility of an open confrontation between China and the US, and some people are ready for an answer that would foretell the end of the European Union. All this is very negative. There will competition after the crisis, as there has been before it, but I think it is too far-fetched to predict war or the demise of the EU.

Competition aside, the crisis underlines the need for a greater level of international cooperation and complementarity among the nations. We live in an extremely interconnected world, as we can see from the expansion of the pandemic to every corner of the planet. Unfortunately, some leaders are not getting the message. They have decided to fight a global threat through erecting national barriers. My hope is that this will be challenged once the crisis is over and that we will be able to make it clear that it is better to cooperate. That is certainly a debate that must take place at that time. We should not go back to the past.

Competition has been the model. We must go beyond that. Call it history. As we look into the future and learn from today’s difficulties and consider the next challenges, including the environmental one, we should be moving towards a new stage, that will put the emphasis on joint action and human cohesion. That could be one of the positive results of the present-day drama. It is idealistic, I accept the observation, but we must base ourselves on new dreams.  

Absolute power leads to disaster

Four out of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council are now led by men with absolute power. They have been able to place themselves at the apex of the pyramid, undoubtedly above the institutions existing in their countries. They exert their authority in political contexts with no real checks and balances. They decide, they command and everybody else obeys. In two of the countries, there are democratic oppositions, one should recognise it. But the recent happenings show that such opposition parties have very little room to act as balancing powers, as an alternative brake to any excess. Extreme polarisation makes the majority party act as block, as a protective barrier to the leader.

All these situations are very worrisome. Recent history, especially at different moments of the past century, has shown that autocratic leadership can be the fastest route to disaster. Dictators, big and small, need to create conflicts with foreign powers to survive and justify their policies. The process they follow is clear. They start by challenging the validity of international law and the role of multilateral organisations. Then, they try to ride on an existing sub-regional conflict by taking sides. That allows them to make the enemy identifiable. And the tension keeps growing.

It is time to clearly state that diplomacy is better than conflict. And to add that in a world as global as it is ours today, the only way to keep peace and prosperity is through increased cooperation and positive alliances. But above all, we must reaffirm that democracy and full respect for everyone rights are the best lessons we have learned from past crises.

Poor democracy

For many opportunistic politicians, the truth is a MIA – missing in action. Values have been kicked aside, in today’s partisan disputes. The politicians do not want to recognise the facts if those facts play against them and their political friends. It is more than just lying. It is deep bad faith, and no shame. It is to negate the evidence and logical dimension of the facts. In the end, that creates deep divisions, extreme rancour and an immense discredit of everything political. With time, it might lead to violent action as well.

It is very worrying as a new trend.

We have now daily examples of that, in our democracies. And as I wrote yesterday, our democratic systems are therefore continuously undermined. And our societies are becoming more extreme instead of more harmonious.