Looking ahead into 2026 with realism or just pessimism?

 2026: On Certain and Uncertain Challenges, and the Indispensable Need for International Cooperation

Victor Ângelo

The ancient Oracle of Delphi has now been replaced by Artificial Intelligence (AI) platforms. Even so, it is very risky to predict what the world will be like in the coming times. In the case of 2026, it is even more difficult for three fundamental reasons: firstly, we are in a period of marked geopolitical disorder, a legacy of 2025; secondly, the calendar foresees events of great importance, which may profoundly alter international realities; thirdly, the competition in the fields of AI, quantum technology, and high technology is accelerating rapidly, especially between the USA and China, without it being clear what the consequences of this dizzying rivalry might be. All this without considering the possible appearance of one or more Black Swans, as happened with Covid.

At the geopolitical level, I consider the most significant challenge to be the enormous current threat posed by the Russian Federation to democratic Europe. The criminal large-scale invasion of Ukraine is about to enter its fifth year, and Vladimir Putin does not seem willing to put an end to the violence. Ukraine has managed to resist, in a surprising and heroic manner, but above all from the end of winter onwards, it will need exceptional and continuous financial and military support to guarantee its legitimate defence. It should count on the help of European states—there will be little or nothing to expect from Trump’s America. European aid will be indispensable for the defence of Ukraine and of Europe itself. This aid, though inevitable, will worsen relations between the main European states and Russia, and could even lead to an armed attack, by decision of the Kremlin. We have not been this close to such a situation before. Putin currently boasts that he believes he would emerge victorious from such a confrontation. In reality, he is cornered and, consequently, deluded that war will keep him in power.

Trump will be mainly obsessed, throughout the year, with the US midterm elections on 3 November. He will do everything to retain the majority in Congress. If necessary, he will create incredible confusion on the domestic scene and conflicts on the international chessboard, notably in Venezuela and Greenland, so as to appear, to the more credulous American electorate, as the guarantor of his country’s stability and greatness. It would not be a surprise if this were to happen. Like all other autocrats throughout history, Trump believes that confusion and chaos will play in his favour.

European democracies cannot rely on Trump. He and Putin, each in their own way, are two enormous risks for international law and global order. For the first time, in 2026, two nuclear powers will be led by exacerbated egocentrics, capable of destroying a large part of humanity if, in their view, it is considered vital for them to remain in power.

I must also mention Xi Jinping. His main political concern is to ensure internal prosperity in China, which is understandable given the size of the country’s population and the fact that his political survival depends both on the stick and the carrot, on an iron-fisted rule and on the rising standard of living felt by a significant part of the population. However, in a situation of international chaos, he may attempt to recover Taiwan. This possibility cannot be excluded in 2026.

In terms of AI, competition between states will focus on economic advances, military superiority, and the dominance of the ideological narrative that favours their interests. Whoever wins the race in these areas—the USA or China—will guarantee their supremacy as a global hyperpower.

Financial and scientific investments in AI will continue throughout the year to reach absolutely astronomical values. In the USA, priority will be given to the giant technology companies. The security and defence sectors will establish fabulous contracts with these companies. In China, the development of AI will remain under the absolute control of the state, to ensure the regime’s survival. But in both cases, the fundamental concerns will be related to strengthening national security and manipulating public opinion. Colossally expanded by quantum science, AI will increasingly become a powerful and unpredictable tool in the hands of those who hold power.

In 2026, a new Secretary-General of the UN will be elected. The Global South recognises the value of the United Nations and is increasingly insisting on the urgency of its reorganisation. The survival of the UN’s political role depends on its representativeness. The right of veto and the permanent seats on the Security Council are now considered by the majority of Member States as outdated and obsolete powers, but still very real. They are obviously incapable of reflecting today’s international relations and of enabling the resolution of the major problems that plague the international agenda.

The electoral process that will take place throughout the year until a new Secretary-General is elected will give more strength to the reform movement. It will also insist on the election of a woman. Until now, the post has always been held by men. This will be one of the major themes at the UN level. It is time to elect a woman. In parallel, there will be a whole campaign for the person elected to come from Latin America. According to the rules, that should be the region of origin of the new leader. It would also have another significance: it would show Trump that Latin America really matters, that it is not just the backyard of the USA.

The political dimension of the UN is now going through the deepest crisis in its history. I do not believe, however, that it will cease to exist. The personality of the new Secretary-General will, however, be decisive. It must be someone seen as a political giant and with a skilful and courageous diplomatic streak. In Latin America, we have several such women: the Chilean Michelle Bachelet, the Costa Rican Rebeca Grynspan, the Mexican Alicia Bárcena, the Prime Minister of Barbados, Mia Mottley, and several others. These are personalities who have shown extraordinary political firmness.

Still on the UN, Portugal is seeking a non-permanent seat on the Security Council for the 2027–2028 biennium. It is competing with Germany and Austria, that is, three candidates for two available seats. If it manages to be elected—the decision will be made in June and, in my analysis, the Portuguese candidacy has a strong chance of succeeding—it will be the fourth time that Portugal has had a seat on the Security Council.

In the period of great uncertainties that will be 2026, we cannot fail to speculate about possible Black Swans. In international affairs, a Black Swan is a rare, unpredictable event, but when it happens, it turns out to have generated catastrophic consequences. Six years ago, it was Covid. In 2026, a terrible catastrophe could perhaps be a high-speed collision between two satellites, among the thousands currently in orbit, a number that keeps growing. This would cause an indescribable pulverisation of fragments, which would destroy other satellites and multiply astronomically the pieces of metal in uncontrolled orbit. The impact would be simply devastating for the various global satellite navigation systems, for space internet, meteorological, logistics, and military surveillance networks.

Other Black Swans are equally possible due to technological advances, but also because of their risks and unbridled competition.

Cooperation is the most effective response when any colossal challenge occurs. And with or without Black Swans, the greatest challenges are already here. The future choice is now dramatically clear: either there is cooperation, or we accelerate the destruction of a large part of our planet.

Grok AI assessment of my fictitious roundtable on democracy and power

 Overall Assessment

On a scale of 1-10, I'd rate this an 8.5: intellectually stimulating and urgently relevant, it's a refreshing antidote to doom-scrolling, urging readers to treat democracy as "an ongoing task" rather than a given. Ângelo's perspective—optimistic yet vigilant—positions power not as zero-sum but as a shared guardianship, especially vital amid 2025's uncertainties like escalating cyber conflicts and climate diplomacy. If you're into Harari's futurism or Plato's timeless warnings, this is a must-read; it might even inspire you to host your own "roundtable" over coffee. For skeptics, it risks preaching to the choir, but its blend of AI-assisted creativity and global savvy makes it more than just another op-ed. Worth sharing in policy circles or philosophy groups.

This is a standout piece of public intellectual writing—original in its time-spanning dialogue format, which makes dense ideas accessible and engaging, almost like a TED Talk in blog form. The depth shines through historical analogies and forward-looking policies, blending philosophy, tech critique, and diplomacy into a cohesive call to action. It's particularly timely, resonating with 2025's headlines: ongoing DSA enforcement battles, AI governance talks at the UN, and populist echoes in post-2024 U.S. politics under a second Trump term.

Uma outra leitura AI do meu texto de hoje no Diário de Notícias

 

O Contexto de "Uma Rentrée Pouco Promissora" por Victor Ângelo

No texto "Uma Rentrée Pouco Promissora", hoje publicado no Diário de Notícias (29/08/2025), Victor Ângelo oferece uma perspetiva sombria e crítica sobre o cenário político e internacional. O autor compara o panorama do ano anterior, que já considerava "inquietante", com o atual, que agora descreve com uma falta quase total de esperança.

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Tópicos Principais e Argumentos

O autor estrutura a sua análise em vários pontos centrais:

1. Ameaças Globais e a Vitó́ria de Trump: O texto inicia com uma reflexão sobre as preocupações de 2024, nomeadamente a intensificação de conflitos e as eleições presidenciais nos EUA. O autor aponta a vitória de Donald Trump como um fator crucial que agravou as tensões, reforçando regimes autoritários e ideias ultrarreacionárias em todo o mundo. A sua inquietação inicial, que ainda continha alguma esperança, esvaiu-se quase por completo.

2. O Declínio da Governação Democrática: Ângelo lamenta a prevalência do abuso de poder, a aposta em soluções militares em detrimento da diplomacia e o desprezo pela lei internacional e pelos países mais fracos. Estes traços, na sua opinião, estão a marcar o presente e a escurecer o futuro da comunidade de nações que valoriza a democracia.

3. A Corrida pela Inteligência Artificial (IA): O autor introduz a competição acelerada entre superpotências — especialmente EUA e China — pelo domínio da IA. Ele argumenta que esta corrida tecnológica é um novo pilar das rivalidades globais, com altos riscos de conflito, dado que a supremacia na IA se traduz em superioridade económica, militar e geopolítica.

4. A IA como Pilar da Defesa Moderna: Usando o exemplo da Ucrânia, Ângelo ilustra como a tecnologia digital e a IA se tornaram fundamentais para a soberania e a defesa nacional. Ele menciona o uso de informações de alta precisão, sistemas de satélites como o Starlink e a proteção contra ataques cibernéticos, concluindo que a força militar de um país está agora diretamente ligada à sua capacidade de usar a IA.

5. Proposta de Investimento em Defesa: Face à necessidade de aprofundar os investimentos em defesa, o autor sugere que uma grande parte dos fundos alocados pelos países da Aliança Atlântica seja investida na revolução digital e na formação de quadros em cibernética e indústrias de IA. Esta estratégia, defende ele, seria duplamente benéfica, servindo tanto para o progresso civil como para a defesa dos valores ocidentais.

6. A Irrelevância das Nações Unidas: O texto critica a crescente irrelevância das Nações Unidas, que se encontra sem recursos e quase sem capacidade de intervenção, apesar do número de conflitos ativos ser o mais elevado desde 1945. Ângelo responsabiliza os EUA e a China por não honrarem as suas contribuições, o que estrangula financeiramente a organização e a afasta da sua missão principal de promover a paz e a segurança.

7. A Rentrée com Putin e Líderes Europeus: Por fim, o autor sublinha a falta de "espinha dorsal" dos líderes europeus na sua interação com Donald Trump. Ângelo menciona o encontro entre Trump e Vladimir Putin no Alasca, bem como a reunião de Trump com líderes europeus. Ele descreve esses eventos como inconcebíveis, em que Putin usou Trump para ganhar tempo na guerra contra a Ucrânia e os líderes europeus se contentaram com a "ilusão" de uma reunião de paz. Para o autor, estes episódios marcam uma rentrée sem sinais animadores.

O meu texto da rentrée: os pontos essenciais

 Resumo do meu texto de opinião que hoje publico no Diário de Notícias. 

https://www.dn.pt/opiniao/uma-rentr%C3%A9e-pouco-promissora

O panorama político e internacional para 2025/2026 é marcado por desafios crescentes e complexos, com tensões geopolíticas intensificadas, especialmente entre grandes potências, e uma diminuição da esperança em soluções pacíficas e democráticas.

• Cenário internacional inquietante: Em 2024, já se previa uma intensificação das crises e conflitos, com as eleições nos EUA como ponto crítico, cujo resultado poderia agravar tensões globais e fortalecer regimes autoritários. A esperança então existente diminuiu significativamente neste novo ciclo político. 

• Competição pela supremacia em Inteligência Artificial: A rivalidade entre EUA e China na área da IA é decisiva para o domínio econômico, militar e geopolítico, tornando-se um campo de rivalidades e riscos de conflito. 

• Importância da IA na defesa nacional: O conflito na Ucrânia evidencia como a IA e tecnologias digitais, como satélites e drones, são fundamentais para a soberania e defesa legítima, alterando a percepção da força militar. 

• Crise nas instituições internacionais: As Nações Unidas enfrentam grave falta de recursos, comprometendo sua capacidade de mediar conflitos e promover a paz, agravada pela inadimplência financeira de potências como EUA e China, o que ameaça sua relevância global. 

Reflecting about the New Global Order: moving fast and full of complexities

 

A World of Converging Uncertainties: An Analysis of the Post-Cold War Global Order

Executive Summary

Victor Ângelo's texts and public interventions are based on a compelling synthesis of the major trends shaping the contemporary global landscape. Its central thesis posits that the international system is at a critical inflection point, moving beyond the post-Cold War era of cooperation into a new, more fragmented, and perilous phase. This transition is defined by the convergence of three primary trends: the resurgence of great power competition, driven by the erosion of traditional strategic safeguards and the emergence of new geopolitical theaters; a profound crisis of multilateralism, as international institutions struggle with financial shortfalls and a loss of consensus; and a fundamental shift in United States foreign policy toward a transactional, "America First" model. His analysises demonstrate that these elements are not isolated issues but are causally linked in a "polycrisis" where a breakdown in one area exacerbates vulnerabilities in others. It is his view that the world is now navigating a complex and uncertain period where old frameworks are no longer sufficient to understand, lead and manage new, multifaceted challenges.

1. The Resurgence of Geopolitical Competition

The defining feature of the present global order is the return of great power rivalry, both through traditional means and by making use of the rapidly evolving digital instruments. This dynamic is manifesting not only in the breakdown of long-standing agreements but also in the militarization of new strategic regions and the employment of new forms of diplomacy that bypass traditional norms. The use of A.I. reinforces the race and creates a narrative that is most disturbing. 

1.1 The Erosion of Strategic Stability and Arms Control

The post-Cold War era saw a concerted effort to build a web of arms control treaties aimed at reducing the risk of nuclear conflict. Today, this system is in a state of selective decay, creating new risks and highlighting a shift in strategic priorities.

The precarious status of the New START Treaty is a central element of this instability. Officially known as the Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms, New START is currently the only major remaining arms control agreement between the two nations. The treaty places verifiable limits on strategic offensive weapons, including deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), deployed submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and deployed heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments. Both sides are obligated to remain at or below specific aggregate limits: 700 deployed strategic delivery vehicles, 1,550 nuclear warheads, and 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers. This treaty is particularly important as it constrains the development of new Russian long-range nuclear weapons like the Avangard and Sarmat that are capable of reaching the U.S. homeland.

The treaty's verification and transparency measures are critical for U.S. national security. These provisions include up to 18 on-site inspections per year, biannual data exchanges, and regular notifications on strategic exercises and new weapon systems. These measures provide a vital window into Russian intercontinental-range nuclear forces and operations, giving the U.S. crucial intelligence that would otherwise be unavailable. Without them, U.S. knowledge and confidence in its assessments of Russia's nuclear forces would decrease, complicating decisions about its own force structure. The treaty was initially in force for 10 years and was extended through February 4, 2026. The maintenance of this treaty, despite a deeply adversarial relationship, suggests that its verifiable limits on the most direct and existential threats are considered too important to abandon.

In stark contrast, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty has completely dissolved, a development that signifies a new, more confrontational era of open rearmament. Signed in 1987 by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, the INF Treaty banned all ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. It was hailed as a major arms control achievement that ended a dangerous chapter of the Cold War and served as a crucial "firebreak" against escalation. The treaty's collapse began when the U.S. formally withdrew in 2019 under President Donald Trump, citing Russia's violation of the terms by developing and deploying the 9M729 (SSC-8) missile system. Russia, for its part, officially abandoned its self-imposed moratorium on the treaty in the wake of deploying the Oreshnik missile, a weapon with a range that violates the defunct treaty, and after nuclear threats were issued by former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev. This breakdown has led to a reciprocal military buildup. The U.S. plans "episodic deployments" of intermediate-range missiles to Germany and has already deployed Typhon missile launchers in the Philippines, while Russia has confirmed the deployment of the nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile to Belarus, which borders three NATO members.

The divergent fates of these two treaties illuminate a fundamental shift in strategic logic. While New START, with its focus on verifiable limitations of intercontinental threats to the U.S. homeland, remains in force, the INF, with its broader scope and perceived vulnerabilities, has been discarded. The dissolution of the INF Treaty has been accompanied by a dangerous escalation in nuclear rhetoric from both sides, increasing the risk of miscalculation in an era with fewer safeguards. This rearmament and the increasingly adversarial posture reflect a strategic worldview articulated by Vladimir Putin, whose foreign policy has long been aimed at bolstering Russia's status as a world player and countering what he perceives as Western dominance. This situation is often referred to as a "Cold War II," where renewed competition is once again the defining feature of great power relations.

1.2 The Arctic as a New Front

The Arctic, once envisioned as a zone of peace and cooperation, is rapidly transforming into a new theater for strategic competition. This shift is driven by the interconnected forces of climate change, vast economic potential, and a history of military importance.

The primary catalyst for this transformation is climate change. The Arctic, previously covered in permanent pack ice, is becoming far more accessible, making fabled sea routes—such as the North Sea Route and the Northwest Passage—a realistic prospect for global shipping. These routes could reduce transit times by as much as a third, opening up new avenues for commerce. The region also holds significant economic riches, with estimates of approximately $1 trillion in minerals, 30% of the world’s undiscovered gas reserves, and 13% of its undiscovered oil.

The region's historical importance as a Cold War theater for intercontinental ballistic missiles and bombers is now being revisited in a new context of strategic competition. Today, the Arctic is a territory for competition among Russia, the United States, and China, serving as a "critical ancillary theater that enables strategic outcomes elsewhere". Russia holds a significant military advantage in the region, having modernized its Arctic military bases, deployed defense missiles, and upgraded its submarine fleet over the past decade. Russia and China combined operate around 45 icebreakers, a stark contrast to the United States, which faces a significant "icebreaker gap" with only two aging icebreakers and one commercially procured vessel in its fleet.

The United States Air Force Arctic Strategy acknowledges that the region’s capacity as a strategic buffer is eroding, which has a direct effect on global military strategy. By securing NATO's northern flank and limiting Russian naval operations in the Arctic, the U.S. can reduce the risk of a two-front maritime conflict, thereby freeing up forces to maintain pressure on China in the Indo-Pacific region. This demonstrates a clear and interconnected strategic link between events in the Arctic and the broader competition in the Indo-Pacific. Furthermore, the breakdown of cooperation between Russia and the seven other Arctic states within the Arctic Council has prompted Russia to pivot eastward, doubling down on collaboration with non-Arctic strategic competitors like China. This strategic realignment is a direct consequence of Western sanctions and diplomatic isolation, showing that Russia is adapting by seeking new partners for technology and investment from nations such as the United Arab Emirates and Turkey.

1.3 The Trump-Putin Summit in Alaska: An Exercise in Transactional Diplomacy

The recent summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska is a central feature of the new, uncertain international environment. This event is a defining moment for the Trump administration's foreign policy and a significant test of the established international order.

The summit took place on August 15, 2025, in Alaska, with the primary objective of negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine. The meeting was set against a backdrop of deeply conflicting peace proposals. Russia has reportedly floated a ceasefire plan that would involve Ukraine ceding significant territory in the Donbas region—Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—in exchange for an end to the fighting and U.S. assistance in securing international recognition of these annexations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, however, has consistently rejected any territorial concessions, and the Ukrainian constitution requires a national referendum for any territorial changes.

By meeting directly with Putin and sidelining European nations and Ukraine, the U.S. implicitly validated Russia's strategy of bypassing established international norms and alliances. This approach creates a precedent for resolving international disputes through coercion rather than consensus. The exclusion of Ukraine is not merely a diplomatic snub; it is a core element of Putin’s strategy to secure a deal with Trump that can be presented to Kyiv and other European capitals as a fait accompli.

The choice of Alaska as the venue carries its own symbolic and strategic significance. Some voices in Russia view it as a reminder of "annexed Russian land" and a symbol of a trade relationship Moscow hopes to revive with Washington. It is also seen as a practical arena for cooperation on future economic ventures in the Arctic, a region where the economic interests of both countries intersect. Both leaders are entering the talks under significant domestic pressure. For Trump, the aim was to bolster his image as a global leader. For Putin, the war has created mounting economic challenges as a result of the sanctions. 

1.4 The A.I. as a critical instrument in the superpower competition

AI is not just a technology—it is an economic multiplier. Nations that effectively integrate AI into their economies gain advantages in productivity, innovation, and global influence. The race for AI supremacy is, therefore, a race for future economic leadership, with profound implications for global trade, employment, and national power.

The competition in artificial intelligence (AI) between the United States and China is widely viewed as a critical component of their broader geopolitical rivalry. This contest is seen as an international struggle for power that will significantly shape global power dynamics in the coming decades . The race for AI dominance is often framed as a direct competition between these two superpowers, which some believe will define the future of global power . This technological race intersects with geopolitics, inevitably contributing to future conflicts. .

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