Assad, the master of the cemetery

Syria has very much disappeared from the radar screen of international affairs. The “July Conference” is like July itself: no more! The EU and the US seem to have concluded that Assad is not moving out of power. In addition, the Syrian opposition they could work with is more divided than ever. Turkey, on the other hand, after its own domestic social unrest, has cooled down its enthusiasm to play a bigger role in the neighbourhood. And Qatar and Saudi Arabia keep moving apart, with divergent interests at play.

Assad is therefore keeping the moment and the initiative. He knows that time and the mood in the international community are favourable to his aims. He might be ruling the ruins of a country, but he will be in power. For a tyrant, this is the best insurance he can get. It is better to be in charge of a cemetery than to be in the uncertainty of exile. 

Mali, Algeria and the EU

The events in Mali, especially the French deployment, have brought that part of the world back to the agenda in Brussels and other EU capitals. This is good news because there was no way the West African states alone – even with some “technical support” from a couple of external partners – could be in a position to put together a military force capable of fighting the rebel groups operating in Northern Mali. Most of West Africa has very weak armies, with poor operational capabilities. Therefore, and taking into account the seriousness of the challenge, European countries and other nations have to be ready for a UN-sponsored robust peacekeeping operation in Mali. That’s the way forward.

It is also part of way forward to ask a very simple question: who is providing fuel, spares, and vital supplies to the extremists in Northern Mali? People who deal with these matters have the answer, I am sure. Maybe the answer is just on the other side of the Northern border. Once this question is answered in enough evidence has been collected, I think the key leaders in the EU should confront their political counterparts in the country concerned and firmly request them to put a stop to those logistical lines of supply. That would contribute a long way to a negotiated solution of the national crisis in Mali.