AQMI and Boko Haram should be wiped out soonest

Besides other places, there is concern in Burkina Faso and Niger that Boko Haram and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, also known as AQMI, are trying to establish a logistics and safety corridor between them. The authorities in these countries think the threat is serious enough. It should not either be ignored or treated lightly.

I am not sure about the link between the two organizations. But I for sure think that fighting both of them is a matter of great urgency. They call for decisive action. They should be smashed. We have been too slow in responding to these terrorist groups. And when we hesitate they take it as a licence to expand and bring instability and death to new areas of influence.

Again, I think we have to mobilize a coalition of states, including some from outside the region, to fight these crazy and dangerous fellows. I would like to see more voices repeating this message. 

Please define a more precise end state!

I was told yesterday that President Hollande defined the eradication of the Islamist terrorists from Mali as the objective of the on-going military campaign. He added that the troops will stay in that African country as long as it is necessary to achieve this goal.

In my opinion, this objective is too vast, dangerously vague as it can lead to a stalemate, a never-ending and unaffordable mission. Furthermore, with time, it has the risk of turning the French public opinion against an operation they support today.

A military intervention like this one needs to have a clear end state.  It should be as short as possible and lead to a political process. It has also to be linked to the actions carried out by others, in the case, by the West African nations as well as by the EU training mission that is being put together. It cannot be taken in isolation. It has also to have a regional dimension. And above all, it cannot ignore that at the end of the day, the ultimate objective is to create the conditions for Mali to take care of its own security and governance. This requires a comprehensive approach and it is much larger than the current military operation by France. This operation, with all its merits, should not be more than a stop-gap in a multidimensional and multi-actor process.

A new situation in North Africa

The hostage situation in Algeria, with the kidnapping of many foreigners, from different nationalities, by an al-Qaeda inspired group, opens a new phase in the security crisis in that part of North Africa as well as other areas surrounding Mali. All of sudden governments from outside the region are realising that their interests in the gas and oil fields in Algeria and the vicinity could be under very serious threat. This can deeply affect the functioning of the many fields and lead to a significant decrease in the production levels.

Mali, Algeria and the EU

The events in Mali, especially the French deployment, have brought that part of the world back to the agenda in Brussels and other EU capitals. This is good news because there was no way the West African states alone – even with some “technical support” from a couple of external partners – could be in a position to put together a military force capable of fighting the rebel groups operating in Northern Mali. Most of West Africa has very weak armies, with poor operational capabilities. Therefore, and taking into account the seriousness of the challenge, European countries and other nations have to be ready for a UN-sponsored robust peacekeeping operation in Mali. That’s the way forward.

It is also part of way forward to ask a very simple question: who is providing fuel, spares, and vital supplies to the extremists in Northern Mali? People who deal with these matters have the answer, I am sure. Maybe the answer is just on the other side of the Northern border. Once this question is answered in enough evidence has been collected, I think the key leaders in the EU should confront their political counterparts in the country concerned and firmly request them to put a stop to those logistical lines of supply. That would contribute a long way to a negotiated solution of the national crisis in Mali.