Political imprudence

Some leaders never miss a chance to remind us they are just fools. Every new statement, every new proposal, all moves are like reminders of their mindlessness. But then I recall that Napoleon used to say that “in politics, stupidity is not a handicap”.

And I move on.

But now it seems we have another example. The French political leadership has now come to the conclusion they want a Frenchman as the new head of the European Commission. And the name of Pierre Moscovici has been mentioned. He was Hollande´s Finance Minister up to recently. Then, he lost some local election and had to leave his Cabinet position. Defeated by the voters in his community, that know him well, can he be a serious candidate for the top job in the European institutions?

Really? Or is it a joke we do not get?

Then Napoleon´s words came to mind. Not about Pierre, but about the one who is advancing his name. 

Juncker, yes, for the EU Commission

Jean-Claude Juncker might not be a new face in the EU block. But he is an experienced and safe pair of hands. And a serious man. As leader of the most voted EU political family he should be the next President of the European Commission. He needs the support of the heads of State and government, as he also requires the votes of the socialist group. That should be possible. The Socialists could see their leader, Martin Schulz, also a very able man even if not as experience as Juncker, take a key position in the Commission as compensation. Or reward him by keeping him as President of the European Parliament, a job he has done well.

Not to appoint Juncker would give the EU voters another reason to lose faith in the European elections.

There is, of course, the problem called David Cameron. He seems to have said that Juncker´s appointment would force him to move the date of the British referendum on Europe forward, to an earlier date. And he added that the British would vote then against the EU. Maybe. But in any case, the risk is high. Sooner or later, if there is a vote in the UK and in view of the current atmosphere, the chances of a negative vote are pretty high. That would be above all a British problem.  Europe would suffer a blow but the UK would receive the full impact of the wave.

UK´s position is important but it is not a reason to stop the process of appointing the EU head forward. 

Portuguese Socialist Party is like wildfire

Politics is not for the faint of heart. You cannot be afraid of fire. And you have to be in the kitchen all the time but also keep an eye on the outside yard. Nobody is going to give you an easy time, if you are a personality in politics.

In Portugal, the leader of the Socialist Party is getting that message. His party was the number one on Sunday European elections. But with less than 32% of the votes the Socialists were not far ahead from the governing coalition, with their 28% share. It was a tiny victory.

The party´s internal opposition to the current leader moved fast. On Tuesday their main figurehead, the mayor of Lisbon, was out in the media, to announce he was ready to fight for the party´s leadership and take over from the current secretary-general. The latter was not specially amused by such a move. In particular because he had signed, last year, a peace agreement with the Lisbon mayor, the same fellow that has now decided to challenge him. Furthermore, he learned about the challenge through the media.

The mayor is playing some big cards within the party, including Mario Soares, the party´s founder and godfather. The current Secretary-general, on his side, is playing the rules. His point is that is mandate is not over, that the statutes do not foresee a change at this time. The rules are indeed clear.

But in party politics the rules book changes pretty often. Like wildfires. They go with the direction of the wind. 

The mainstream media in Russia is a major propaganda tool

The Russian media campaigns in support of President Putin have now reached new peaks of propaganda. A friend was telling me that such campaigns are presently much more intense and loud than the propaganda carried out during the last ten years of the Soviet era.

President Obama´s foreign policy options

President Obama´s speech at West Point on foreign policy must be read with great attention. It shows the direction the US is taking in international affairs. It is clear about the priorities for the next two or three years, but is even clearer about the new doctrinal approaches. Including on the use of force abroad.

I still have to find time to peruse it carefully.  But it´s worth to do it shortly.

In Europe we have to keep in mind that the only option we have at this time of our history is to continue the strong and close defence alliance with the US. We are far away from a EU defence reality. And with the nationalism dragons on the way back to the front of the European political scene it is even more advisable to have the American glue to keep us wisely together in matters of military nature.  

The leader´s image matters a lot

I have seen a few leaders in my life. And I have learned that a true political leader is someone who can combine calmness, with strength of opinion and clarity of speech. They go under terrible stress all the times but do not show it.

Tonight I observed David Cameron as he was about to enter the European Council and found him bitter, nervous and heavy of speech. I thought he looks very stressed. 

Europe needs a new narrative

Today is the day after. After the EU elections of yesterday, which produced results that many have considered “shocking”. But they are not. It is true that in several countries the anti-European parties have done very well and got quite a number of seats. They will make a lot of noise in the European Parliament and will try to take advantage of that platform to gain even more political ground at home. They can however be contained. The vast majority of new Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) is from mainstream political parties and believe in the common project. They just have to better at fighting for it in Brussels and Strasbourg. They have to work harder and be bolder.

The true lesson I take from the election results is about the way the European project is presented. The old way of speaking about a space of peace and stability is no longer attractive for the younger generations. We need to recreate the narrative about the importance of building a united political space of freedom and human rights, as well as a society that promotes economic development, equity and opportunities for all. That´s the kind of story we need to put together. That´s what the young Europeans want to hear. We are not the US, we are not Russia, nor China, we are part of a community of peoples that have decided that united we will be strong. And a bit different. As Europeans, of course. 

Africa Day

Busy with elections all over Europe, we tend to ignore that today is Africa Day.

We are also good at forgetting how important the EU-Africa partnership can become. 

The ways of the Cold War II

This year´s edition of the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, an annual event that aims at bringing together the Chief Executive Officers (CEO) of major world corporations, started last night with a grandiose nine-course banquet. This is an important event that the current state of affairs between Russia and the West has made even more significant. Therefore, the fact that seven of 12 key participants from the US have decided to cancel their participation cannot be ignored. For the US, more in their case than for the Europeans, the severing of as many economic relations with Russia as possible is the key response to President Putin´s policies towards Ukraine. This approach is considered in Washington as the best and most impactful way of undermining Russia. The new face of our modern day “Cold War” is above all about economic muscle and financial measures.  

EU games

The EU elections will bring a sort of a hung parliament without any clear majority on the right or left side of the assembly. Jean-Claude Juncker and Martin Schulz will be leading two parliamentary groups very similar in terms of number of seats won. No need to have a crystal ball to know that. The tiny difference between their respective groups will not be enough to decide who of the two will be the next President of the Commission.

In the case, the EU Council, which brings together heads of State and government, will have once again a major say in the selection of the new Commission boss. And there, Schulz will be in a serious situation of disadvantage. First, because of his nationality. Merkel does not seem prepared to have a strong German in Brussels. It would be a bit of a competition. Besides that, it would attract again too many attacks on Germany, particularly when new crises will emerge. And other countries might have also some difficulties in seeing a fellow from the top country in charge of the EU. For some people, the Commission should always be led by people from the smaller member States.

And that´s where Juncker might have an advantage.

But nothing is decided.

The British might think that politically, for their domestic political games, Juncker is the ideal candidate to say no to. He can be presented in the UK as being to European, too much for the Eurogroup. In the circumstances, to veto him could give some little mileage to Cameron. And Cameron will certainly need, after these elections, whatever little advantage he thinks he can grab.