Criteria to select Juncker´s successor

The discussion about the selection and approval of the next European Commission President has now openly started. Juncker is still on up to the end of next year, that´s true, but it´s also a fact that the issue of his succession will continue to occupy the minds during the next few months.

I am convinced that the tradition of selecting a former head of government or State to chair the Commission should be kept. Such an approach is fundamental to give a solid foundation of authority to the holder of that most critical job. 

In addition to that type of political experience, the candidates most be consensual enough, including in terms of enticing the support of the European Parliament. Nobody can get the job if not supported by the EP. Such requirement does not mean the successful candidate most come from the political family that gets the greater number of seats in the next parliament. It means that such candidate must be able to gain the advantage within the EP. 

Besides these two criteria - former government leadership experience and majority vote in parliament – the new President should come from a region of the EU that has been underrepresented when it comes to this type of responsibilities. That makes me think of the Nordic and the Baltic States. And, last point, the preference should go for a woman. 

Juncker´s stress

As I watch and watch again yesterday´s joint EU-Canada press conference, here in Brussels, and feel sorry for Jean-Claude Juncker´s tirade against Wallonia and the whole of Belgium, I think of leadership. One of the key dimensions of leadership is the ability to handle pressure. This means one is able to remain serene even when the stress is intense. It also means that one should not pick a fight when there is no need to pick a fight. 

EU and roaming

Jean-Claude Juncker understands that any EU decision on roaming is politically important. Particularly at a time when he needs to please the European citizens and make them believe the EU has a meaning. That´s why he decided to cancel the previous one, which was too restrictive – only 90 days in the year and with a lot of conditionalities. That decision was seen by many in Europe as being too kind to the telecom companies. These big corporations do actively lobby in Brussels.

Now, Juncker´s Commission has announced that roaming calls will cost the same as calls made in the home country, as of 15 June 2017. There will be some rules, to avoid fraud, but the new decision is very reasonable.

The truth of the matter is that the telecom corporations are under serious pressure from the social networks. You travel and as long as you get a free Wi-Fi connection you can call through one of several applications without any cost. That´s the way things are going. That´s the future: a world connected at no direct cost. That´s also why some people think that it is not a good idea to buy telecom stocks. These companies´ share prices will keep going down.

In the case of the EU, I hope their public value will start going up a bit. 

Making the distinction between humanitarian and development aid

At present, with the refugee crises and the displacements of people in many countries, the humanitarian funding needs are exceptionally high. Several donor countries have markedly increased their contributions during the last few months. Among them, the European Commission and some EU countries, as well as the US, have shown leadership. They are again among the top contributors to humanitarian assistance.

The challenge is to finance the humanitarian response without cutting the aid development budgets. These should be seen as two different strands within the international cooperation finances. But the fact of the matter is that in several countries the humanitarian resources are generated these days by diverting development money to meet immediate requirements. The development assistance resources for 2016 will be seriously affected, if this trend is not reversed. 

The EU chaos

It´s hard to believe the EU is not able to have a common approach to a matter as serious as the mass arrival of refugees and other migrants. More disturbingly though is to observe that some governments have lost control of the situation. It will take ages to regain the lost authority. In the meantime, the impact of this uncontrolled movements needs to be closely monitored and the appropriate mitigation measures must be implemented. As it is also necessary rebuild the confidence between the leaders of the different member states and ensure that there is no populist gain made out of this most incredible disarray. 

EEAS: too many chiefs and few foot soldiers

I spent some time yesterday discussing with staff from the European External Action Service. And I got the impression they are a bit overstretched. Great staff but overwhelmed by the work, the complicated bureaucratic processes and the meetings they have to attend to. The lists of assignments keep growing, the level of ambition is huge, and the eagerness to take additional responsibilities is deeply rooted in the culture of the service. But the number of Indians available to carry out the work seems to me to be insufficient. Actually, the EEAS appears to be heavy on bosses and chiefs, and certainly very light on the question of work bees. 

Juncker´s Commission

Jean-Claude Juncker came out as a strong leader, when he announced the Commisssion of the EU that he wants to put together. The choice of the first Vice-President, Frans Timmermans of the Netherlands, is a very courageous one. Juncker still recognises the High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Federica Mogherini of Italy, as a Vice-President, but places the former Dutch Foreign Minister as his right hand. Furthermore, Mogherini has agreed to move out of the EEAS building and joining Juncker at the Berlaymont building. The proximity brings greater coherence, enhances team work and sends the signal that Juncker is the boss.

In addition, the letter sent to each Commissioner by the incoming President states clearly what he expects from each one of them. It also indicates the clusters they belong to and who will be leading each one of those thematic areas. This is modern way of going governance. It is also a message about coherence, cohesiveness and lines of responsibility.

Now, the next step is in the European Parliament. Juncker might face some opposition from the Socialist group. They consider their candidates were not given enough authority in the line-up presented today. It is true. But it is also true that most of the strongest candidates were nominated by Conservative governments that are in power throughout Europe.

Political imprudence

Some leaders never miss a chance to remind us they are just fools. Every new statement, every new proposal, all moves are like reminders of their mindlessness. But then I recall that Napoleon used to say that “in politics, stupidity is not a handicap”.

And I move on.

But now it seems we have another example. The French political leadership has now come to the conclusion they want a Frenchman as the new head of the European Commission. And the name of Pierre Moscovici has been mentioned. He was Hollande´s Finance Minister up to recently. Then, he lost some local election and had to leave his Cabinet position. Defeated by the voters in his community, that know him well, can he be a serious candidate for the top job in the European institutions?

Really? Or is it a joke we do not get?

Then Napoleon´s words came to mind. Not about Pierre, but about the one who is advancing his name. 

Today´s EU Council made me think of a funeral wake

The EU Council meeting has just ended in Brussels. The atmosphere in the room was not good. There was more suspicion and rivalry around the table than willingness to address the key challenges. Some were just looking in the direction of Cameron and asking themselves why is it the UK has been accepted as a member? I am sure that one or two even recalled in their minds old man De Gaulle and is opposition to Britain´s membership, and might have thought he was a politician of vision.  Others might have looked in Samaras direction and wondered about Greece´s presence in the club. The same they thought could be said about Cyprus, Romania, Bulgaria, Portugal and some other countries. Then, there was Angela Merkel. I get the impression the leaders were just trying to spot any change in her posture and opinions, now that she has consolidated once again her authority within German politics.

And there were Van Rompuy and Barroso out there. They might have looked to some of the stronger and harsher leaders as two phantoms that are just dragging their feet in the EU corridors, as ghosts that wait for the village priest to come and exorcise them from the place. They are experiencing a painful end of term and everybody knows that. But they are not alone in their predicament. Baroness Ashton keeps them the company she can.

This is indeed a time of morose for the European leaders. Europe as a project is at standstill. 2014 will be a year without collective ambitions. Each country will try to keep afloat. And each leader will be just confined and paying attention to the domestic fires. The EU elections in May next year will come and go without capturing people´s attention.

We will see. 

Are we moving back to the old approach to national sovereignty?

This morning I attended a discussion about the current meaning of national sovereignty in Europe. The discussants recognised that we live now in a context of limited and shared sovereignty. As members of the EU, the countries have transferred some of their national powers to the Commission or the Council. And they have also agreed that some key decisions do require the consensus of the membership. These have been important steps towards a supranational approach to the common good.

Everybody seemed to agree that the trend towards pooled State sovereignty will continue and that there will more co-responsibility in the future and less decisions based on a narrow approach to national interests. 

I think it is good to have an optimistic view of EU´s collective will. That´s what will take us forward.

But I am not sure about the next few years. European countries give the impression they are moving back to the old views about sovereignty. That will certainly be a wrong direction. However, one should be aware of the facts. And be prepared for less. Even when we aim at more.