UK´s dilemma and Cameron´s mess

David Cameron´s European policy is in disarray. And now, with the new demands coming from Brussels for additional payments into the common budget, justified by the revision of the national accounts in every State of the Union, and with Angela Merkel criticising the British Prime Minister´s stance on immigration, the matter has become even worse. I do not see at this stage any way out for the Conservatives but to be openly advocating for a Britain outside the EU. This could bring them some votes in the forthcoming general elections, they believe. The only problem is that such a position runs against the interests of the Conservative top funders. And in many ways, against Cameron´s own understanding of British long-term interests. It is a major dilemma. Cameron´s dilemma. 

Ebola as a biological weapon?

The collective hysteria around Ebola is such that some people are already talking about the possibility of “enemy forces” being engaged in capturing the virus to make future use of it as a biological weapon. This is taking us too far. Why? What are we trying to achieve with such unfounded rumour?

And it is also a distraction when the main objective should remain to help West Africa to fight the epidemic. 

Juncker´s challenge

Jean-Claude Juncker has won the vote at the European Parliament. He managed to get the support of a very large grand coalition of centre-right and centre-left MEPs. The way he addressed them was consistent with the process he led up to this day: being smart, saying the things that are mainstream, and paying attention to those who matter. He lost little time on extremists, on anti-EU MEPs, on all those that would vote in any case against him. His vast European experience gave him a strong advantage as well. He knows the issues better than any of the deputies in the EU Parliament.

His mandate will start on November 1. The expectations of the EU citizens are pretty low at the moment. Therefore, Juncker starts from a favourable ground. He just needs to adopt, sooner after taking office, one or two actions that could be perceived by the Europeans as new, a change.

But his time in office will run through a difficult time for the EU. The challenges ahead are immense. Maybe the biggest one will be to keep the Union together. Today more than ever the future on the EU is at risk. His experience might be of great help in trying to achieve the required and missing cohesiveness.

   

Denis Mukwege deserves the recognition

The Congolese medical doctor Denis Mukwege is this year´s laureate of Europe´s Sakharov Prize. This great honour recognises Dr Mukwege´s work in Eastern Congo in support of women and girls that have been victims of mass rape. Rape is in that part of Africa a weapon of terror. Women and girls are caught in between the rebel groups and the government forces and end up by paying a terrible price. Dr Mukwege has been their medical helper, both also their voice and advocate. He has done it with great bravery and a very strong sense of duty.

Today we can only say that this year´s Sakharov Prize, decided by the European Parliament, makes justice to a great African.

It also calls the world´s attention to the plight of women and children in conflict situations. It is in many ways an appeal for more action against that type of violence. 

Ebola: Bring the resources to West Africa

I wrote my bi-weekly column to the Portuguese magazine Visão this morning. Everybody is writing about Ebola these days. I also did. It is the second time in recent weeks that I focus on this matter. I just felt it was necessary once more to emphasize that the fight against the epidemic ought to be fought in West Africa. Rich countries and permanent members of the UN Security Council have the duty of assistance. They should make all types of resources available. The disease has crushed the response capacities of Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone. These countries are in need of immediate help. And it is the duty of the developed world to assist. International solidarity is a key pillar of the new international order. We should insist on that. And also on the fact that we are saving lives. For now, it is the lives of West Africans. That´s a strong reason. But later on, if we are late to act, it could be our own lives, in our part of the world. And that´s also a strong reason for us to move without any further delay. 

Nigeria: can we believe there is an agreement with Boko Haram?

Knowing as I know the players, I am afraid the announcement made by the Nigerian presidency regarding an accord with Boko Haram might just be wishful thinking, at best. But it can even be worse than that. It can just be a deceitful statement at a time the electoral fever is about to start.

The next few days will tell. 

Arrogance in politics is so common

In politics it is a grave mistake to confuse arrogance with firmness. Arrogance leads to disaster. It narrows down your analytical capacity. It puts everybody else off and makes you an easy target. Firmness, on the other hand, reveals leadership and inspires confidence. It makes people believe you know what you are up to. It sends the message that you are a person of courage, ready to fight for your views. And that’s one of the best signals a politician can communicate. 

Credible leadership is missing

There aren´t enough reasonable voices around. The current circumstances require leaders that speak clearly and give sense and hope in response to destabilising events. Leaders that are good at inspiring confidence. We are confronted with exceptional times and have very ordinary and soulless individuals at the helm. 

Dilma´s political future is at stake

Dilma Rousseff, Brazil´s head of State, is fighting for her political future.

The second round of the presidential elections will take place in about eleven days, on October 26. The odds are playing against Dilma. Her party has been in power for the last twelve years. It is strongly embedded in the administrative apparatus and it has also a solid support in the poorer segments of the country. But at a time of economic slowdown, as it is today the case in Brazil, when public resources have become scarcer, it is easy to put the blame on the government and vote against those in power. On top of that, large sectors of the urban and better educated Brazilians are today against Dilma´s party and her control of the administrative machinery. They are basically afraid of Dilma´s interventionist policies, of new taxes, and they want change.

In many ways, the Brazilian society is today much polarised. And less solidary. Class plays a defining role. And individualism, personal success, is also a common trait in a country that prides itself for its self-made men and women. Many do not understand the social policies Dilma´s party has implemented in favour of the poor.

All that runs objectively against a candidate that is identified with a strong option for a more redistributive social policy.

I am afraid Dilma might be the loser at the end of the day, on the 26^th. 

Turkey and its approach to the Islamic State bandits

Just a very simple question: what is Turkey doing to fight the terrorists that call themselves the Islamic State? The Turkish government is indeed very difficult to understand.