They can't drink oil

      The collapse of the oil price has several major implications. It is an economic tsunami. For the oil-producing developing countries, in Africa and elsewhere, it means an extraordinary loss of revenue. That’s the case for Nigeria, Angola, Congo, South Sudan, Algeria, Libya, Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, Iraq, Iran, and so on. It adds fuel to social instability in those countries. It brings, at least, a new level of poverty and hardship to their populations. For the developed countries, it carries serious capital losses for the pension funds and other sovereign funds that were heavily invested in oil corporations and all the other companies that deal with bits and pieces of the oil industry. For all of us, it discourages new investments in renewable sources of energy. The bottom rock oil price makes any renewable too expensive to contemplate at this stage. 

The oil consumption is at present very low, because of the lockdowns that are implemented all over. But also, because the United States has continued to pump vast amounts of oil. They are now the largest producer, with 12.3 million barrels per day. President Trump could have compelled the industry to reduce daily production. There was a recommendation to cut it by 2 million barrels per day. He decided not to act because he saw this branch of the economy as a key pillar of his political basis. There are 10 million oil and gas sector jobs in the US, plus many billionaires that inject money in the Republican camp.   Now, he is promising them billions of dollars in subsidies. Public money being wasted when the solution was to reduce exploitation. His political choice has a huge impact on the domestic taxpayers’ money and on the world economy. It is inexcusable.

They say that misfortunes never come alone. Indeed.

Denis Mukwege deserves the recognition

The Congolese medical doctor Denis Mukwege is this year´s laureate of Europe´s Sakharov Prize. This great honour recognises Dr Mukwege´s work in Eastern Congo in support of women and girls that have been victims of mass rape. Rape is in that part of Africa a weapon of terror. Women and girls are caught in between the rebel groups and the government forces and end up by paying a terrible price. Dr Mukwege has been their medical helper, both also their voice and advocate. He has done it with great bravery and a very strong sense of duty.

Today we can only say that this year´s Sakharov Prize, decided by the European Parliament, makes justice to a great African.

It also calls the world´s attention to the plight of women and children in conflict situations. It is in many ways an appeal for more action against that type of violence. 

Gulf of Guinea

Piracy is becoming a serious threat to the freedom of navigation in the Gulf of Guinea, in West Africa. The Nigerian Navy has arrested, during the first quarter of 2014, 37 vessels that were engaged in illegal activities at sea, most of them related to piracy attempts.

Now, a major naval exercise has been launched in that Gulf, at the initiative of the Nigerian government. 10 Nigerian ships, plus a task force of 14 foreign war vessels are now engaged in a joint exercise. The neighbours of Nigeria are part of the exercise as navies from Europe and the US. For a total of 21 nations. This figure shows the importance of the menace and the level of cooperation that has been established to address it.

It is rewarding to see Nigeria taking the lead. This is a case of good news coming from that key African State. 

Central Africa

The Central African Republic (CAR) is now a failed state.

The capital city, Bangui, is controlled by armed groups of uncertain origin. They are most likely dominated by warlords from Southern Darfur and Eastern Chad. They have little to do with CAR’s main ethnic groups but they are allied to Central Africans from the North-Eastern border areas. These are Muslims in a country that is largely Christian.

Besides the capital, there are other armed groups and several “self-defence” committees. But there is no central authority, no law and order, no administration and no modern economy. It is just chaos and extreme hardship.

The situation can easily spill over into some of neighbouring countries. They are also very fragile. They could become the next prey of the roaming armed men.  

The African Union has pledged to send a peacekeeping force to the country. It will be difficult for the AU to be able to mobilise the force and the resources required. It will also be a very delicate mission because of the religious divide that is now taking place, for the first time in the history of CAR.

The international community should understand that the country needs, urgently, not at the pace the AU can mobilise itself, a very robust international force, with full executive powers.

It is the survival of CAR’s population that is, first and foremost, at stake. But not only. It is an entire region. A region that is already the least stable of Africa.