Let´s be clear and respectful

In today´s world, when everyone has access to many sources of information and opinion, the leaders cannot continue to believe they will be able to deceive the population. Leadership is indeed about clarity and respect. And not too many words, because lengthy sentences can be seen as hiding places for deceit and weakness.

More on the strategy against the terrorists of the Islamic State

We usually emphasise that each national crisis should have a political response and end up with an agreement between the parties. In the case of Syria, it would be, at this stage, a serious mistake to insist on a political solution. The situation has reached such a dramatic level that the only way forward, for the moment, is through a military approach. Politics and diplomacy have to wait. They will come later.

The goals to be achieved are clear: to destroy the self-proclaimed Islamic State and protect the civilian population from further violence. These objectives do call for a major allied armed offensive and also for a change of tactics when it comes to the Assad regime.

On the military side, my writing of yesterday is clear. I can only add that we just have to make sure that those who will take the decision to go for the force option have the support of the popular opinion in their countries. And then ask those leaders to move fast.

On Assad, it is time to make a difference between the man and his people. The headman will have to go. The key criminals that have directly supported him must be brought to justice as well. But we need to find ways of bringing his ethnic group, the Alawites, and all those who are around the administrative and security machineries on board, on our side, as long as they have no real crimes in their hands. They should be part of the solution. If they are not they will be, soon enough, because Assad´s collapse is getting closer, the next mass victims of the brutes that only conceive death as the appropriate punishment  for those who are different.

It is indeed time to think strategically. And be strong.

Revise the strategy to destroy the Islamic State

The daily reports are clear. They point to a recent succession of military gains by the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS), both in Syria and Iraq. As I see it, that terrorist group is stronger today than some weeks back. Its ongoing offensives on different fronts show vitality which can only result from new resources, including fresh money and weapons as well as a mass of additional recruits.

The other side of the coin is about weakness. Those opposing IS are today weaker.

The moderate groups in both countries first. They are losing ground and credibility. They have demonstrated they do not have enough vigour to take care of this major challenge. More than ever it is now obvious they necessitate a great amount of external support.

The raids also show that the Western strategy against the terrorist organisation is not working. It has to be revised immediately. Its revision has to focus on a much stronger involvement in the region, through additional deployment of special force units and better coordination among them, more effective and better shared intelligence, and a closer alliance with the Middle Eastern States that oppose IS.

I recognise that a deeper military engagement in Iraq and Syria is a complex and costly matter. But political hesitation is no longer a solution in this case. Public opinion is prepared, in our part of the world, for a serious increase of our military assistance to those who can be our regional and local allies in this combat. We just have to ensure that the alliances are clear and strategic, meaning, they should aim, above everything all, at destroying the IS threat.

Rich and poor in Europe

Brusssels is number three in the EU in terms of income per capita. The data show that its residents’ income is twice the European average. Inner London and the Luxembourg Duchy are number one and two. The former –Inner London – is a pretty rich corner of Europe. The average Londoner has an income that is more than three times the European average. In Luxembourg, the equivalent figure is about 2.5 times.

Bulgaria and Romania, on the other hand, remain at the bottom of the list. They are indeed very poor countries by European standards. The gap between them and the top three is abysmal. And it keeps growing for now.

Criminal banking

Six major international banks have been fined by the US authorities over huge criminal manipulations of the foreign exchange markets. The banks caught in this huge fraud and well thought-out conspiracy to steal from the clients are: Barclays, Citigroup, JP Morgan, Royal Bank of Scotland, Union des Banques Suisses (UBS), and Bank of America. The overall fines amount to USD $5.6 billion.

Since 2008 a number of very serious malpractices and criminal actions have been uncovered in some international banks. The crisis and a closer scrutiny of the banking system have shown that many of these institutions have been unethical and unlawful. Violations of the law and the interests of the customers have been common practice. The Financial Times reports that in the last seven years banks have been fine over USD $160 billion because of their illegal activities.

It is a matter of huge concern. It is also a major worry that no top banking executive has yet faced a court of justice and be personally sanctioned with a prison term for his or her actions. The system fines the banks and lets the bankers enjoy their bonus. And by the way, the bonus paid during the last seven years or so by the banks the US has just punished come to a total very similar to the combined amount of today´s fines.

Europe in the Far East: a weekly review

My weekly commentary on Radio Macau, aired every Tuesday under the title of Magazine Europa, focused today on three topics: Greece and its immediate, and most pressing financial challenges; mass illegal immigration into the EU across the Mediterranean Sea routes; and educational success in East Asian countries and the lessons Europe´s education systems could draw from that part of the world. 

The topics show the image – and concerns – Europe projected during the last week in Macau and vicinity.

Greece is now against a tough rock

Greece´s financial situation is now reaching a breaking point. We might have a surprise in the coming week or so as it is abundantly clear that the public coffers are more or less dry. The State´s engine is now running on fumes, no longer on real fuel. The chances of agreement with its European creditors have become pretty remote. They still exist, it is true. But they seem very unlikely. 

If there is an agreement it will be in response to the surprise I anticipate, to a major default crisis, a precipitated reaction to tears and shouts. Drama first, spur-of-the-moment repairs afterwards.

The Pope´s decision on Palestine is very important

Pope Francis ‘gesture towards the Palestinian people and its President Mahmoud Abbas should be deeply appreciated. The Palestinian crisis is one of the most enduring and I see no solution in the horizon. But the duty of international leaders is to keep it front page. And contribute, by any peaceful way, to move the two-State agenda forward. No gesture is too small, all positive moves are important. 

The leadership of the "Islamic State" should be destroyed as quickly as possible

The operation that killed a key leader of the terrorist organization called “Islamic State” (IS) should be underlined as a major development. It shows in many ways that there is a new game in town, if we can say it with these words. It takes the fight against these terrorists to a new level: the direct involvement of US Special Forces. We know almost nothing about these extremely specialised branch of the American military. But the fact that they are on the ground against IS, operating from Iraq but ready to go across the border into Syria, can make us believe that the leadership of that brutal organisation will be sooner or later seriously weakened. The targets of the Special Forces are the very important people on the other side of the fence. We can only hope they will be able to do the job fast and cut the head of the monster soon enough.  

The Rohingya refugees need our support

The EU has no clear approach towards the “boat people”, the illegal immigrants that come across the Mediterranean Sea. The same should not be said about Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, when it comes to their “boat people”. These migrants are displaced populations coming from Myanmar. Many of them are from the Rohingya ethnic group, a marginalised Muslim population that lives in the Rakhine State of Myanmar, a coastal area near Bangladesh. In Southeast Asia the policy is clear: repair their boat, give them some food and water and push them to the sea. The results are shocking, of course. The images show the extreme misery of men, women and children, they capture distressing faces of punishing suffering.

We might criticise the European confused policy. But we should be loud and clear in our condemnation of the cruelty the Southeast nations are showing towards the Rohingya. And we should also add that the Rohingya meet all the criteria that define a refugee population. They should therefore be treated as such.