Serbia: the little Russia at our doorstep

When it comes to party politics, media control, state propaganda, antagonism against civil society organizations and the biased narrative about the US and the West, Serbia looks very much like a smaller version of Putin´s Russia. It is however a candidate country to the EU. How can we and they understand that without deep changes, the membership is just a distant illusion? 

A comprehensive approach to mass migrations

The mass movements across the Mediterranean Sea towards Greece and, in much smaller numbers, to Italy, cannot be seen only from the humanitarian perspective. It is a fact they represent a major humanitarian challenge. That should not be disputed. And people in need have the right to be assisted. But that´s only one dimension. In the short run, it is the most urgent one. However, there are other aspects that require careful attention as well. They cannot be neglected. They have serious implications in matters of security, political stability in different countries of Europe, xenophobic reactions, capacity to integrate such diverse populations in the long term, job availability and so on. All this matters. All this ought to be taken into account when responding to these extraordinary movements of people. Light or single line responses would only lead to very serious new crises in the future. 

Closing the gates on immigrants

The Balkans route, as it is known, is now closed to the immigrants stuck in Greece. The Macedonian government got the message well before the European media and public opinion. That´s why they decided to prevent people from crossing. And if we look carefully at what they have been doing during the last week, we can say that they have also been informed that Iraqi people as well as Syrians from Damascus will not be accepted any longer as refugees. This means the EU approach is becoming much narrower. Fine. But the big question is about what to do with the tens of thousands of people from those areas and from elsewhere, Afghanistan, North Africa, Iran, etc, etc, that are already in Greek soil? Repatriation? How fast can that go before it has a dissuasive impact on those getting ready to cross the sea from Turkey?  

Preparing for the migration meeting with Turkey

The EU-Turkey migration summit of 7 March might be more conclusive than what we had expected. The European positions on the migratory flows are becoming sharper and more united. The leaders see the meeting as an opportunity that should not be wasted. That´s good news. But they need to have a clear approach when talking to the Turkish leaders. This is no time for wishful thinking and certainly no time for further ambiguities.

The EU crisis and Chicken Little

The EU sky is not falling

This is a difficult time to be an optimist in Brussels. It is even more challenging to advocate for a positive look at European affairs. And it becomes almost impossible to talk about collective hopes for a more united Europe in the future. Many will say such optimism belongs to another epoch. Now, the dominant discourse is one that announces a new catastrophe every week. Like Chicken Little, these so-called realists shout, “The sky is falling! The sky is falling!”

As a contrarian, I want to maintain faith in the European project. And be inspired by a forward-looking approach. The best way to build a prosperous and safe future for all of us in Europe is through a united endeavour.  I say it whilst realising the EU is at present facing two major crises. They crowd everything else off the agenda, giving strong arguments to pessimists and those who are against continuing the Union. I mean a possible Brexit and the realities of mass migrations.

With the UK spinning further away from common approaches and policies, arguments for integration and joint responses have indeed become more fragile. In effect, such arguments are practically inaudible because many leaders prefer to focus their attention on their own national agendas. The silence of most of them on EU affairs is deafening.

The UK´s position has brought a lot of uncertainty to the table. At this stage, nobody can predict the outcome of their referendum. It is also difficult to forecast the consequences of a Brexit for the future of the EU.

Nevertheless, the EU would survive a Brexit. Why? Because the UK and the other member states have already learned to go their own separate ways in many areas – the Euro, Schengen, labour laws, justice, and internal security, just to mention a few.  Perhaps the biggest worry is what a Brexit would do to the British themselves, to the status of Scotland, as well as to their tiny neighbour to the west, Ireland.

Brexit or not, the EU shouldn´t be too worried.

The larger question is about immigration. Can the EU survive a continued and expanding mass migration crisis? Many believe it cannot. We keep hearing that without a solution to the current migratory flows, the EU will soon collapse. There is a good degree of exaggeration in the air. The soothsayers of disaster easily capture the headlines. Obviously, the mass arrival of refugees and migrants does pose major challenges and it is essential to recognize this. It is a situation well out of control. Furthermore, this crisis shakes the key foundations of the Union, its values and the role of Europe in the international arena.

More importantly, the migration issue touches the core of a vital dimension of European states—the question of national identity. The people of Europe have shown that they are ready to give away a good number of their sovereign prerogatives, accepting that Brussels can deal with them. This has been the case in a wide range of areas related to economic management, budgets, agriculture, trade, environment, justice, development aid, external relations and other important matters.

Yet, they are not at all prepared to abdicate or dilute their national features, language and everything else that creates a people´s identity. Nor should they. Europe is a complex mosaic of languages, cultures, nationalities and even prejudices. Yes, our views of our neighbours are still shaped by prejudices in significant ways. History and many wars have both divided us and created the diverse assortment we are today. Patriotism is still, and will continue to be for a good while longer, far stronger than pan-Europeanism.

All this must be taken into account. Populists are effective in doing just this, trying to gain the political advantage in the process by exploiting feelings of nationalism. It’s all a little more complicated for an optimist.

This reality notwithstanding, let´s be clear about the present crisis. Let´s imagine we had to face the current migratory instabilities and frictions that the migrations have created in a past context of separate nation states. We can readily assume that some of us would already be at war with our neighbours. We would see coalitions of countries taking military action against others, trying to defend their borders and their own perceived national interests. We would be responding to the threats facing us with weapons drawn upon one another. In the past, this challenge would lead to armed conflict and chaos. We know that the long history of Europe has been written through a succession of wars. 

This all changed when the EU was established. Now, disputes are taken to summits. Summits come and go, often without many concrete outcomes. But, sooner or later, they end up by producing acceptable results of one sort or another. We have learned to take the right decisions at the eleventh hour, that´s true. But we have done so around a conference table and through diplomacy. That´s the kind of lesson we should keep in mind as we get closer to two more summits on the migration crisis: one with Turkey, on the 7th of March and one among the EU leaders on the 17th.

Let´s keep talking and pushing for an agreement. From the cacophony of diverse European voices and the play of varied interests, action will follow. The most relevant contribution of the pessimists, Eurosceptics and  nay-sayers has been to create a greater sense of urgency. Now, the optimists among us have to state that there is only one answer to the big question on the table: Do we allow this challenge to destroy the hard-won political and economic achievements of the EU or do we build on these successes to constructively address this crisis and, in the process, strengthen our union?

I am convinced that realism that will prevail. The European sky isn’t falling.

Time to act on the migratory mass flows

The EU has to adopt a comprehensive response plan to the migratory crisis. The chaotic situations in Greece need to be brought under control. The Greek authorities need a lot of support to be able to address the massive challenges. The other member states must assist.

One of the dimensions of such plan would have to be implemented in the country of arrival. In this case, Greece.

Each person that reaches the Greek soil has to be fully screened. And an initial triage to separate fthose who could qualify as refugees and the rest ought to take place soon after they have arrived. The sorting will be a delicate process but it is indispensable. It will be done by mixed teams, including police officers and civilian specialists. Those failing this preliminary assessment should be taken to holding camps, as their deportation process is completed. Deportation will not be easy but it has to become the norm again for undocumented migrants.

The people accepted as possible refugees will then be taken to waiting facilities and distributed throughout the EU, to those countries ready to accept them. All the others will have to be house in refugee sites, as it is the case in other parts of the world. The EU budget would pay for their keep.

EU has to be seen as generous but also firm. It cannot give the image that it is a free for all situation. 

We are indeed confronted with a major humanitarian challenge. But we are also facing a profound security test. We have to pass both.

A little ray of hope in Syria

The cessation of hostilities in Syria is creating some space for hope. That in itself is already an encouraging development. 

Saudi Arabia´s military muscle

Yesterday Saudi Arabia launched the military exercise called Northern Thunder. Most of us, in the West, did not notice it. As we did not realise that military contingents from around twenty states are participating in this major deployment. Among them, there are several African States – Chad, Morocco, Mauritania, Senegal, Sudan, Tunisia are some of them – as well as Asian countries, including Pakistan and Malaysia. Many of these soldiers had to be brought to Saudi Arabia at a very high cost. It is not cheap to deploy troops. I am sure Saudi Arabia has contributed quite a bit to make the voyages possible.

Beyond the military training, I see a strong political message. And I think it is important to keep that in mind. 

Supporting a deeper dialogue with Iran

The outcome of the general elections in Iran – let me call them general elections – seems to be quite favourable to the reformists. That´s certainly a very positive development. They represent the segments of society that understand that Iran´s economic development requires a less rigid approach to domestic politics and also better relations with the international community.

It is true that the country still has a long way to go in terms of taking full advantage of its educated youth as well as of its resources. But today´s step is, by Iran´s standards, a big leap in the right direction. Our role, in the European space, is to encourage more commercial exchanges with Iran and to underline the importance of enhancing our political dialogue with the authorities in Tehran. 

Some good news from Africa

The people of the Central African Republic are tired of conflict. They have shown it a few days ago when they voted in the second round of the presidential elections. It was a peaceful day and the outcome of the elections was accepted by all the key players and also by the general population.

The former Prime-Minister Faustin Touadéra, a man I know well and have always appreciated, won the elections. It was in many ways a surprise. He was not the candidate the observers were betting on. But he got it. Peacefully. Constitutionally. And I only hope this means we have initiated the national reconciliation path.