Today in Brussels

We had a very dramatic day in Brussels. The bombs at the airport and in the subway, at the beginning of the working hours, have shaken everyone. They had a major political and economic impact. But they will not make us become less tolerant. From where I stand, I can say that people have shown a lot of restraint. They were certainly deeply shocked. However, they have not fallen into any kind of xenophobic reaction or racist mood. That basically means that the terrorists have been able to hurt all of us but they cannot change our way of life, they will not win. We, here in Brussels, are used to a very diverse city and will continue to appreciate that diversity. That´s the world of today. Theirs is a world of a very distant and barbaric past. 

President Obama is in Cuba

President Obama´s visit to Cuba must be supported. To engage is the right way to contribute to change. That´s particularly true in this case, as the Cuban establishment is under serious domestic pressure to open up and to accept that the world is no longer what it used to be thirty or forty years ago.

It is also obvious that the road to political plurality in Cuba is not a straight one. The police pressure on dissidence is a daily fact of life in the island. Human rights are still far from being respected. But the movement has started a few years ago and it will accelerate further as the old generation of leaders is replaced by a younger one. 

American political engagement can play a major role. Many Cubans look north, when they dream about the future of their country. And many have family links with the US.

The EU has also decided to deepen the political dialogue with Habana. A new agreement on politics and cooperation was signed on 11 March 2016 between the European External Action Service, on behalf of the EU, and the Cuban government. This accord reinforces and gives more focus to the one signed in 2008.

The EU is a major commercial partner of Cuba. It is the largest foreign investor over there. But there is plenty of room for investment coming from the US. And the modernization and diversification of the Cuban economy open new opportunities for the people. Economic opportunities, of course, but also the possibility of work outside the state controlled sectors. That will end up by having an impact on liberty and freedom of speech.

On the same line, and as a necessary next step, the American embargo should be discontinued. That will another major contribution to political and social change in Cuba.

Putin´s resourcefulness

Russian President understands that one of the most important points in competitive geostrategic action is about confusing the adversary. The principle is clear: do not let the adversary understand how you plan and think. He managed to do it again this week, when he decided to withdraw most of his military operational forces from Syria. And on top of it, Vladimir Putin left everybody trying to guess the reasons for his decision. That´s the icing on the cake.

There are several readings for Putin´s move. To them, one should add more, meaning that we cannot underestimate this leader. It would be a serious mistake. 

Brazil´s politics might get closer to the Venezuela´s model

Two days later, the situation I described in the previous post about the Brazilian crisis has reached a new level of political immorality. Lula da Silva has indeed been sworn in as super minister, some kind of premiership equivalent position, just to see his appointment cancelled by a federal court. That judicial decision has further weakened President Dilma Rousseff´s standing as well. Her credibility got a new serious blow.

The crisis is now so deep that it will be very difficult for Dilma to keep the presidency for much longer. But she will not go without a real fight. Dilma wants to bring the issue to the streets and have one side of the population confronting the other side. That will give her some grounds to say that if she goes there will be civil unrest. She will try to grasp that last straw. But the problem is more complex. Brazil is deeply divided, the political actors have no moral authority and we can expect extreme manifestations of discontent. In some sense, Brazil could become a lighter copy of the chaos that is occurring in Venezuela. 

Brazil: moving fast in the wrong direction

The political crisis in Brazil is deteriorating fast. President Dilma Rousseff´s decision to appoint former head of State Lula da Silva as a senior Cabinet minister has contributed to a new level of malaise. People cannot understand this attempt to extract Lula from a regular judicial scrutiny.

And there are new revelations about corruption within the inner circle of power.

The pursuit of the impeachment process is now more likely. And we can also expect some additional desperate moves from Dilma´s side.

All this will bring additional deep fractures among Brazilians and further economic difficulties. The country will be in a very bad shape at a time it should be at its best to host the Olympic Games. But that´s only a lesser detail. The true challenge will be to repair the great damage that all this corruption will cause to Brazil´s self-respect and its international image. 

Trump and the others: what´s happening?

The challenge I have been confronted with today is very clear: how can we explain the wave of popularity on which Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Jeremy Corbyn are riding?

Not long ago, people like them and others similar would be looked at as oddities at the margins of the political spectrum. Their support would have been peanuts. Now, they are mainstream leaders and, at least in the case of Trump, not too far from getting to a position of real power. And they have caught us by surprise. 

What does it say of the social environment in our Western societies?

This is a critical question. It calls for a very serious debate. It´s not enough to say they are mere populists. That is a very incomplete explanation. 

Poland is a key country within the EU

There is no doubt regarding the political legitimacy of the new Polish government, led by the Law and Justice Party (PiS). The voters gave PiS the largest number of seats at the October 2015 general elections and naturally the party took over the country´s government. The problem is a different one. There have been a series of moves by the Cabinet that have raised serious question marks about its approach to democratic governance in a European context.  The legislative action it took against the Constitutional Court´s independence is the best known example. But there are several others, including smear campaigns against the civil society organisations. And there have been also some grave attempts to bring under party control some of the key positions in the defence sector.

The European Commission has called the attention of the new authorities in Warsaw. The same happened to the Council of Europe. But the PiS leadership seems to be in its own planet, not in the EU, and has paid no real attention to the advice. That should be considered worrying.

It would be a serious mistake – one more, taking into consideration several other blunders made in other political areas – to let it go. The European institutions have to be very clear in their political dialogue with Warsaw to ensure that respect for the opposition and plurality of opinions are fully accepted by PiS. The EU should also insist on keeping the Polish key institutions stable and free of partisan meddling. Any weaker approach on the Brussels side would encourage other governments elsewhere to follow the path that the Warsaw authorities are now pursuing. And that would add serious additional challenges to a union that is already under severe stress.

Serbia: the little Russia at our doorstep

When it comes to party politics, media control, state propaganda, antagonism against civil society organizations and the biased narrative about the US and the West, Serbia looks very much like a smaller version of Putin´s Russia. It is however a candidate country to the EU. How can we and they understand that without deep changes, the membership is just a distant illusion? 

A comprehensive approach to mass migrations

The mass movements across the Mediterranean Sea towards Greece and, in much smaller numbers, to Italy, cannot be seen only from the humanitarian perspective. It is a fact they represent a major humanitarian challenge. That should not be disputed. And people in need have the right to be assisted. But that´s only one dimension. In the short run, it is the most urgent one. However, there are other aspects that require careful attention as well. They cannot be neglected. They have serious implications in matters of security, political stability in different countries of Europe, xenophobic reactions, capacity to integrate such diverse populations in the long term, job availability and so on. All this matters. All this ought to be taken into account when responding to these extraordinary movements of people. Light or single line responses would only lead to very serious new crises in the future. 

Closing the gates on immigrants

The Balkans route, as it is known, is now closed to the immigrants stuck in Greece. The Macedonian government got the message well before the European media and public opinion. That´s why they decided to prevent people from crossing. And if we look carefully at what they have been doing during the last week, we can say that they have also been informed that Iraqi people as well as Syrians from Damascus will not be accepted any longer as refugees. This means the EU approach is becoming much narrower. Fine. But the big question is about what to do with the tens of thousands of people from those areas and from elsewhere, Afghanistan, North Africa, Iran, etc, etc, that are already in Greek soil? Repatriation? How fast can that go before it has a dissuasive impact on those getting ready to cross the sea from Turkey?