9 November is a European date

Besides the German leaders, the Presidents of Slovakia, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary participated in the ceremony in Berlin, marking the 30^th anniversary of the fall of the Wall. I am very pleased they did. The date is an important one for freedom and democracy in their part of Europe. But it is also a key one for the rest of us, in the EU. It is about freedom, the end of a totalitarian approach to governance, the realisation that the communist utopia, as promoted by the Soviets and their allies, was nothing else but a tragic instrument to keep power in the hands of minority political extremists. It is above all a key date for Europe and its modern history. As such, it is most surprising not to see at today’s ceremony some politicians such as Emmanuel Macron, Charles Michel, the incoming EU Council President, and many others from the Western side of Europe. I think they made a mistake.

A new deal in international affairs

It would be unfair to live in the centre of the European Union and have a pessimistic view about the future of mankind. But it would also be unreasonable not to accept that for many, in many parts of the world, daily life is a gigantic challenge, a crushing trial. The point is to find a balance between our prosperity and the dramas many have to go through. In my opinion, the first step towards such balance is the one that recognises that walls and barriers will not keep their problems away from us. What keeps our safety and way of life is a value-based approach towards international cooperation and mutual respect. That should be the message the leaders should take as their key policy line.

No to Erdogan's resettlement plan

President Erdogan of Turkey wants to repatriate a large number of Syrian refugees. His plan is to create several resettlement camps on the Syrian side of the border, in the “safe zone” his troops control, between the towns of Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ain.

He is putting a lot of pressure on the UN Secretary-General António Guterres. The President wants the Secretary-General to bless the plan and convene a donor meeting to raise money for its implementation. Erdogan met Guterres yesterday and the meeting was vintage Erdogan: either the UN does it, or I will.

Things do not work like that when it comes to repatriation of refugees and the role of the UN. The Secretary-General must make it clear. Repatriation must take place on a voluntary basis, with strong security guarantees, and it cannot disturb the very fragile ethnic balances that define Northern Syria. It is also true that traditional donors are not ready to finance any plan imposed by force. But that is not the key issue. The point is that people must be willing to go back. I am sure that point is not met today.

The Special Operations and the Special One

The recent American operation against the leader of the Islamic State must be recognised as a major success. In addition, I would mention three facts that are also of great import.

First, it was once again clear that the US Intelligence machinery is the best in world. They know how to establish information collection networks and they have the means and the capacity to achieve results in very hostile environments.  

Second, the US Special Operations Units are also top performers. They prepare well, train extensively the scenario they might expect and have the determination and the courage to undertake very risky operations.

Third, the President is a political disaster, whatever the prism you may use to look at him. The way he told the story was most embarrassing. He couldn’t go beyond his own self and was unable to give the moment the seriousness it deserved. He is just a poorly informed amateur. Fortunately, behind him, there is an intelligence community and a military establishment that know what they are supposed to do.

Lebanon is changing

Just a brief reference to the on-going street demonstrations that are taking place in Beirut. I admire the determination of those on the streets. Many of them are younger citizens, that are no longer ready to accept the sectarian policies and the power-sharing arrangements that have blocked Lebanon for decades. They want a different type of political system, that promotes economic growth, gives opportunities to the new generations – far better educated than the previous ones – and is clean of corrupt practices and religious bias. It is a genuine domestic movement, notwithstanding the accusations made by the radicals that foreign powers are behind the events. In fact, the foreign partners of the country have been surprised by these popular rallies. They were so much used to the status quo, so they couldn’t see the change that was taking place.

I really wish well to those who want to create a new Lebanon.

Supporting the Balkans

President Macron decided to veto the launching of enlargement talks between the European Union and two Balkan States, North Macedonia and Albania. I unreservedly disagree with the position he has taken. I see it as a mistake or part of his game to get some concessions from other EU countries. It was not inspired by the promotion of peace and stability in the region. And it is certainly not in the best interests of the EU.

These two countries are certainly far away from meeting the membership criteria. They have however implemented a few fundamental reforms and must be encouraged to pursue that same path.

President Macron’s decision is particularly difficult to accept in the case of North Macedonia. The country is a delicate politico-ethnic puzzle and at every moment requires cautious balancing of its populations’ specific interests. Macedonia’s current leadership has demonstrated seriousness and courage. It calls for demonstrable European support.

The threat inside our common home

President Erdogan is not only on the wrong side of today’s world. He is also a serious threat to stability in some parts of Europe. Not to see it would be a mistake with a very high price. 

Supporting the Kurdish people in Syria

Turkey’s military invasion of North-Eastern Syria is illegal, from the international law perspective. It is also a tremendous political mistake, with many possible consequences. I have not seen a single country, among those who matter in international affairs and in the region, that has supported President Erdogan’s decision.

In this kind of dangerous military interventions experience has taught us that we know when the operation starts but nobody can predict when it will end. Erdogan’s people can find themselves caught in a never-ending drama.

Moreover, the Kurds of Syria have been brave allies of the anti-terrorist forces that have fought the Islamic State criminals. They have generated a very important capital of sympathy in Europe and the US. It is not only that we are indebted to their courage and fighting spirit. It is also that we all recognise that they have created a space of tranquillity and some type of normalcy in a country that has been in chaos. It is that order that President Erdogan is now destroying with his heavy artillery and fighter planes.

It is unacceptable.

Fighting corruption

Widespread corruption remains a major issue in some developing countries. It cannot be absent from the policy dialogue with our partner countries. It must be a very central topic and our common responsibility is not to run away from the issue. Diplomacy is no justification to ignore the fate of the populations that see their economy being capture by a few members of the political leadership.

Today, I had a long discussion about the matter and how it affects equitable growth and the fight against poverty. The starting point was the current situation in Zambia. And I was sad to note that I have seen better governance in that country. And unfortunately, it is just an example.

The situation in Northeastern Syria

At the end of the day, there is a lot of confusion regarding what could be next in Northern Syria, at the border with Turkey.

Over the weekend, the US President seems to have told his Turkish counterpart he would not oppose any military action Turkey might take against the Kurds that live on the Syrian side of the border. It was like giving a green light to President Erdogan to move in and attack the Syrian Democratic Forces, the Kurdish-dominated group that was a major ally of the Western powers in the battle against ISIS.

Now, and in view of the outcry his decision has arisen, including within the leadership of his own Republican Party, President Trump appears to be backpedalling. He even tweeted that the Turkish economy would be brought to its knees if something very wrong – what that means is unclear – would happen in Northern Syria.

Well, if there is an invasion of the Syrian territory, many wrong things will happen. One of them is about the message the West will be sending across the globe that they do not protect those who fought along side them. The other one concerns the fate of the ISIS prisoners. Thousands of them are being kept by the Syrian Democratic Forces/YPG. They would run away if the Kurds are under attack. That would bring back a number of terrorist cells to the region. In addition, any new war front in the region would certainly generate more displacements and human suffering. The civilian populations in Northern Syria would pay a high price for the Turkish invasion.

Besides the confusion, EU leaders must be clear and state without hesitation that any Turkish offensive in Northern Syria would be unacceptable. It is time to be firm with Erdogan. And unequivocal as well.