Lebanon and the international freezer

 Translation of today’s opinion piece I published in Diário de Notícias (Lisbon). 15 Aug. 2020

From Lebanon to the conflict freezer

Victor Angelo

 

The district of Beja in Southern Portugal and Lebanon have the same territorial area. But the comparison ends there. If on one side we have around 153 thousand inhabitants, on the other there are seven million, who live in one of the most unstable regions of the globe. And they are an extremely fragmented social mosaic, full of rivalries, which subsists at the expense of precarious balances, always ready to be broken. Each segment of society pulls the embers to its sardine. The respective bosses corrupt the system and capture the institutions of governance. To the emergence of more honest leaders, the bosses respond with murder or intimidation, to shut up or push into exile anyone who questions them.

This explains why a country of entrepreneurial people with a high cultural level went through a long civil war, from 1975 to 1990, and has been experiencing a deep national crisis for years. The situation entered an acute phase in October 2019, with thousands of citizens protesting regularly in the streets. The economy and the financial system ceased to function. The central government has become a prisoner of the fierce rivalries that exist between the 18 political-confessional groups that make up the country and which serve as chess pieces in the game of tension between the regional powers, especially Iran and Saudi Arabia.

The situation became catastrophic after the explosion in the port of Beirut. Since then, the country has made the front page of the news and the priority list of the usual powers, thanks in particular to the efforts of Emmanuel Macron. Lebanon will remain on this list as long as international attention is focused on its crisis. Sooner or later a new tragedy will appear somewhere and the country, like others that are also experiencing recurrent national conflicts, will move to the shelf of the forgotten, in the world freezer where so many unsolvable crises are stored and kept frozen. 

In the meantime, emergency humanitarian aid has been announced. It is vital that this aid arrives quickly and is delivered to those who are in a very precarious situation. Here the role of the United Nations organisations is to ensure the credibility of the distribution of humanitarian goods, which must be channelled through Lebanese NGOs. We must avoid political exploitation of this aid, either by internal factions or by donors. That is why I do not think it is too much to remember that humanitarian action aims to save lives, with transparency, without corruption. It has nothing to do with possible changes in the political spider web.

It is true that Lebanon needs to change its political labyrinth. In recent days, a series of proposals have emerged that would place this burden on the shoulders of the international community. Some have suggested a new mandate regime. The country was under a French mandate until 1943 and there are many people in Lebanon, at the grassroots level, who would like this to happen again. That, even with adaptations to the realities of modern politics, would be a thing of the past. It does not correspond to the current vision, which puts the responsibility for change in the hands of national political agents.

Nor do I think it is possible to send a United Nations contingent with a political mission approved by the Security Council under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. This part of the Charter allows for the use of military and police force, which would theoretically make the mission more efficient. In reality, it only works if there is a strong enough national political will to change the way the country is run, which seems to be very difficult to achieve in Lebanon. One could use the functions of mediation and facilitation of political dialogue, a role that is increasingly central to the United Nations menu. I just do not believe that Lebanese politicians are ready for such an effort.

So, while some humanitarian aid is being provided and internal political cooling is expected, I fear that Lebanon will join the group of countries that the Security Council's inertia regularly puts in the freezer of conflicts.

 

 

 

 

Aid to Lebanon

There have been some discussions about the conditions to be attached to the humanitarian aid to Lebanon. I would like to clarify that such aid should only have one provision: it should reach those in need. There is no other political condition when it comes to saving lives. The political dimensions belong to another sphere, not to the humanitarian one.

Lebanon is changing

Just a brief reference to the on-going street demonstrations that are taking place in Beirut. I admire the determination of those on the streets. Many of them are younger citizens, that are no longer ready to accept the sectarian policies and the power-sharing arrangements that have blocked Lebanon for decades. They want a different type of political system, that promotes economic growth, gives opportunities to the new generations – far better educated than the previous ones – and is clean of corrupt practices and religious bias. It is a genuine domestic movement, notwithstanding the accusations made by the radicals that foreign powers are behind the events. In fact, the foreign partners of the country have been surprised by these popular rallies. They were so much used to the status quo, so they couldn’t see the change that was taking place.

I really wish well to those who want to create a new Lebanon.

Poor weather in the EU capital

Poor weather in Brussels today. Time thus to get ready for my quarterly meeting on peace building. And to realise that there is no strategy, in my part of the world, to deal with the current turmoil in the Middle East. More than ever, the piecemeal approach is the one that dictates the policy. Even so, I am not sure we have a clear policy for each case that is developing in the region. Maybe influenced by the weather, I come to the conclusion that the approaches we are now following are very tentative and full of messy actions. With the exception, maybe, of the dialogue with Iran on the nuclear issues. But the nuclear package is only one dimension of what our Iranian policy should be. Are we connecting it with the rest?

Syria: failure and despair

Syria´s tragedy is spreading fast into the neighbouring countries, particularly in Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan. Chaos and human distress have reached new levels, as it is also the case regarding insecurity and instability. People are just desperate, after so many years of war. Those who can afford the fees are now paying large amounts to human traffickers to take them across the sea into Europe. Even at this time of the year, when the seas are rough and the weather threatening. This is no time for hazardous crossings but the anxiety is so high that people just try to sail through. Everything is better than staying behind.

Their sense of urgency is not matched, on our side, by anything similar. We seem to have accepted that there is no solution to the Syrian crisis. The Security Council cannot agree on any meaningful approach to the resolution of the crisis. Now, Russia is preparing a conference – another so-called high level meeting! It will take place in a couple of weeks but nobody knows what for. It is not even clear if the UN Special Envoy will be given any significant role in that meeting. It could be just another excuse for the lack of substantive action. But, as things stand, it´s OK to go for it. At least it will allow a number of voices, here and there, to recall that the Syrian crisis is a major failure of today´s world. 

Human displacements and conflict

The illegal migrations across the Mediterranean Sea towards Europe are a matter of great concern. For different reasons, including the risk of loss of life and the political impact the immigration has on the domestic politics of the EU, as they are a fertile ground for the radical right-wingers to propagate their extremist ideas. But one should be proportionate. The numbers are certainly big and growing. However, they are much smaller than the unbelievable numbers of refugees in Lebanon, Turkey or Jordan, just to mention those countries that border Syria and have received millions of displaced and desperate people. That is what should make us think twice. How can we help in the solution of conflicts and crises that are the mass producers of human suffering and large scale human displacements? 

Peace and security in the Middle East

The Middle East remains a region deeply unstable. And the UN Secucity Council, which has the principle responsibility for international peace and security, is clearly unable to play a constructive role in the region. What we see, at the beginning of this New Year, is a serious deterioration of the internal security situation in Iraq and Lebanon. Both countries share border lines with Syria and this makes them part of a larger system of instability and conflict in critical part of the world.

If we look beyond these three states, we will see fragile situations in several neighbouring countries. To the East, that corridor of fragility includes Afghanistan and Pakistan. Closer to Syria, I would not underestimate the potential for trouble that exists in countries like Jordan, Bahrain, and even in Turkey. Then, we have Yemen and Egypt, Libya and the Arab states of North Africa.

In this context, 2014 will be a busy year for all those who care about security, protection of civilians and human rights issues in the larger Middle East region. 

A changing Middle East

We understand better the current negotiations in Geneva between Iran and the P5 plus Germany if we take into account two factors.

First, the economic situation in Iran. The sanctions against Tehran are biting and their oil is also losing the leverage it used to have, as the world moves into other sources of energy and other techniques to generate oil. All this is having a serious impact on the Iranian economy. The regime knows that a very urbanised and young country as theirs cannot accept austerity for too long. The leaders´political survival requires a compromise with the key western countries as well as with Russia and China. They know it.

Second, for the West, a long view of their strategic interests places much more emphasis on improving the relations with the Arab and Muslim world in the Middle East. The turmoil in Iraq and now in Syria is a serious menace for peace and stability in the region. It is also a very important generator of extremism and religious fanatics. In the end, the Muslim populations of that part of the world have a much greater weight than Israel. For that reason, we are seeing a gradual shift away from Israel´s positions and a clear intent to improve the diplomatic relations with the Muslim states in the region.

The regional geopolitics are changing fast. 

The strategic interest of the Middle East is tapering

The Middle East, defined in broad terms to include both Egypt and Iran, and the countries in between, remains the most unstable region of the world. It includes very dramatic and intricate crisis, such as the ones in Syria, Palestine, Lebanon, and very fragile governance regimes, such as the ones in Jordan, Iraq and Bahrain, without mentioning Saudi Arabia, which many consider to be experiencing the initial symptoms of instability. It is also home to serious ethnic and sectarian conflicts, as the Kurd situation, which concerns several countries, the rivalries between Sunni and Shia power elites, and the proliferation of extremist groups illustrate. The region is also deeply affected by Israel’s policy towards the Palestinian people.

View from the West, the region has lost a good deal of its strategic importance. Oil from the Middle East can now easily be replaced by oil from other parts of the world, including the US and Canada. Oil is therefore a much weaker argument when looking at the Western interests in the region. Religious fundamentalism and its violent manifestations are still a reason to pay attention to the region. But even in that domain, home-grown fundamentalism in the EU and the US are now getting more attention than distant threats that might be taking roots in the Middle East.

Also, from a trading perspective, the region is perceived as a small market, notwithstanding the wealth available within some of its leading circles.

The trend is therefore to switch the attention away from the Middle East to other parts of the world. 

UN cannot be silent about Syria

When it comes to the Syrian crisis, it is sad to note that the UN has lost the initiative. Even statements by top level UN officials about the dramatic situation the country is living have disappeared from the radar screen.

Some of us are afraid that one or two big nations might have sent a message to the UN Secretariat, something along the line: “Keep off!”

The UN cannot keep off a profound national crisis such as the Syrian one. It cannot. The human costs are too high. And the political risks for peace in the region are too many. Today more than ever.