At the end of the NATO Day

As I look at leaders ‘meeting, and the way they look at their own forces, always over-estimating the capacity of their forces and inter-states cooperation, I want to shout that too much confidence on your abilities defeats you in the end. It has always been like that and I see no reason for it to be different this time.

On the anniversary of NATO

All along, I have listened to a good number of dinner speakers. And I have noticed that, in general, they believe that a successful speech is the one that confirms the views of the attendees. They end up by seeing themselves as “comfort speakers”, as I would call them, invited to reinforce the prevailing ideas that have already gained a seat around the table.

That has been the case, for instance, on matters related to NATO. I mention the Alliance as its leaders get together in London to celebrate its 70^th anniversary. And I recall that I have repeated at a few occasions the Organisation needs an independent view of its relevance and role. They should even listen to some “positive contrarians” – another expression I use –, people that are ready to raise some fundamental questions instead of just re-stating dogmatic or diplomatic views.

I would also like to recall another of my frequent messages to senior officers: we can only succeed if we consult, de-conflict and harmonise our respective strategic and operational interests.  

NATO and the Sahel

As we approach the door of the London NATO Summit, which opens on 3 December, we cannot ignore one of the key questions the Alliance must address: what kind of role should it play in North Africa and the Sahel?

But before answering it, the member States should recognise that such region is closely linked to some important European countries. Its security will have an impact on those countries, sooner or later. And not just on matters of illegal migrations. An expansion of terrorist groups out there will end up by spilling over to Europe.

One cannot look at North Africa and the Sahel as if they were in a far corner of the world.

The approaches towards the future of European defence

When it comes to European defence, it is not either the US or Turkey that count. It is basically how the issue is seen by the French, the Germans and the Poles. The British, with the Brexit imbroglio, have somehow stepped aside. Each one of these three nations lead a different school of thought on the matter. And, in many ways, the Poles are more influential than what many outside analysts think. On top of that, they tend to voice positions that are not too far from the feelings we find within the US side. In this context, the strategy must follow a gradual approach, step by step, starting with less controversial areas. And it has to consider what should be the future of NATO in the Europe of tomorrow.

Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker

Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker completed today their mandates as leaders of the EU. I think it is fair to say that both have committed themselves deeply to their jobs. Donald Tusk as head of the Council had to manage and balance the views of his peers, the Heads of State and Government of the EU Member States. Not an easy job. One of his headaches came from his own country, Poland. Jean-Claude Juncker had to lead the machinery and achieve results, notwithstanding the fact that, at the same time, he was dealing with a major distraction, the Brexit negotiations.

As they move on, I think one should say thank you for the work they have done as well as for the enormous patience they have displayed. And we should know that patience and perseverance are two of the key features a leader should possess. Particularly a leader that deals with 28 national masters.

The new EU Commission

The new European Commission top team, led by Ursula von der Leyen, has been approved by the Members of the European Parliament. They are now ready to start their five-year mandate. I can only hope they will be able to respond to the challenges ahead and remain credible.

The challenges are many. For me, the most important one concerns the unity of Europe. This is an area that is under attack, both from inside and from some of our neighbours, allies or foes. Therefore, it must be protected and strengthened. The Commission must keep reminding all of us of our common destiny as Europeans. It’s about unity within diversity, as a German person is certainly different, in many aspects, from a Portuguese. But both and all share the same fundamental values of human rights, fairness and dignity. All want to see the European streets kept safe, the rural areas protected, the equality between boys and girls promoted, and ensure that the older citizens feel tranquil and enjoy a dignified end of life. It’s also about the beef, of course. By promoting the European unity, the Commission is supporting a balanced economic growth and job security. In a context of sustainability, which means a lot on terms of addressing the urgency of the climate crisis.

I wish the new team well.

So much has changed

We are about to close the second decade of the XXI Century. As we look back, the last 10 years have been a time of major transformation and change. The year 2010 seems to be far back and to belong to another era. Politics have changed, and not for the better. Lies and polarisation are new key features. The economy has also gone through major transformations. Artificial Intelligence, computerisation are the new dimensions. But they are not alone. The economic changes have also brought new levels of precariousness and powerlessness, job insecurity and a frustration. And then, there is a new understanding of the climate crisis. It is unfortunately accompanied by actions that are too small to effectively respond to the issues we face.

In many ways, I think we end the decade with a stronger feeling hopelessness and deep distrust for those who are in charge. We are also more contradictory in our own way of looking at things. We know but we do not want to change what we got used to. We just hope others will do it.

That goes along with a serious leadership crisis. The political and thought leaders are no longer those who are in power. They are among the little people, the ordinary citizens and, in many ways, among the very young. There again, there is a serious gap between political authority and moral authority. That’s one the challenges we have to address we get into the next decade.

The initial comments about the Hong Kong elections

Three points about today’s local elections in Hong Kong. One, it is about the very impressive voter turnout. People participated in the election in very large numbers. The turnout is 71.2 per cent of the registered voters. Much higher than the one in 2015, which reached 47 per cent. Two, it is about the tranquillity of the day. There was no unrest, no confusion either during the vote or in the evening, as the papers were counted, and the first results announced. Three, initial results show that the pro-democracy candidates are gaining most of the seats. That will be a major blow to the Hong Kong Chief Minister. But, above all, to the Communist leaders in Beijing.

Again, the events as they happen in Hong Kong raise major issues about what next in China.

The question of trust

If there is a thing I took away from the political debate the BBC organised last evening, it is the question of trust. Basically, the programme was about placing the leaders of the four main British parties before an assembly of citizens. We were told these people represented a good sample of the diversity of opinions one can find in the British society. I don’t know the criteria the BBC followed to select them. However, I have no special reason to doubt the organisers’ word and good judgement.

Each leader was given 30 minutes to listen and reply to questions coming from the audience. That’s time enough to win an assembly of voters. It can also become an eternity if one is not able to connect with them and be convincing.

In my opinion, and excluding the special case of the leader of the Scottish National Party – Nicola Sturgeon has a very specific political agenda, very focused on getting a new vote on Scotland’s quest for independence from the UK – the other three leaders could realise they are not trusted by large segments of the population. Their pledges do not sound as sincere.  They can count, of course, on their faithful followers. But they can’t widen the pool.

My conclusion was that they should ask themselves why it is they are not perceived by a good number of the voters as credible. If I were in their shoes, that would be the question I would try to answer now, before moving on with the campaign.

A global wave of urban revolt

It cannot escape one’s attention that currently there are several cases of urban revolt taking place in a good number of countries. Each one of these mass movements have their own specific causes. But I think there are a few common features. They are related to the stress of leaving in megacities with poor infrastructure and high cost of living, housing challenges, youth unemployment, job insecurity, and the disparity of living standards one can find in every big city. Inequality and a strong feeling of social injustice combined with scot-free corruption by the elites lead to mass demonstrations, including the destruction of symbols of power.