Ashton and the hesitant EU states

Today Baroness Ashton, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy has issued a statement on “the extremely grave situation in the Central African Republic”. The title says everything. Or maybe, almost everything.

The statement recognises that the situation has been deteriorating very seriously since the beginning of this week. The French troops and the African military mission are just overwhelmed by the increasing violence, the widespread attacks against Muslims, and the generalised chaos in a country that has been pretty chaotic for a bit of time now.

The main addressees of this declaration are the EU states themselves. They have been very reluctant in fielding a peace mission in support of those already on the ground. The EU governments have invented all kinds of excuses to delay the deployment of the forces. Some of these forces are ready to go but their political masters prefer to say that they need additional training, just as a way of procrastinating.

It is true that CAR is far away. One can even say that Libya is much closer and is still in disarray and the Europeans do very little to help this neighbour. There is a big difference though. Libya is not witnessing a genocide-type of conflict. There the issue is more about strengthening the state authority.

I can understand the reluctance on the European side when it comes to sending troops to address a law and order challenge. Troops are not policemen. They are supposed to deal with military threats. But if you do not have enough gendarmes and special police forces to deploy, you go for the military solution as stop-gap approach. It is either that or more innocent civilians being simply massacred.

For those like me who have spent a few years dealing with the country and the region, the short term response – to stop the violence – does not seem too difficult and certainly it would not require a very large force.

It calls however for a commitment on the EU side that is now clearly absent. And Mrs Ashton cannot state it with the same clarity I can. But she means it.

Egypt: unacceptable court proceedings

Let me be clear. Kangaroo courts and irrational judgments like the ones now taking place in Egypt are simply unacceptable. The way hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood sympathizers and activists have been sentenced – most of them to death – has to be denounced as totally inappropriate in any country today. It is just absurdly infamous and nothing can justify that type of processes. Each trial is a violation of the most basic human rights

I realise the Egyptian society is now deeply divided. But it cannot be guided by blind hate. It has, on the contrary, to find ways to bring people together. There is no way one segment of society is going to be able to annihilate the opposing segment. They have to compromise and live together.

I am very surprised by the Western leaders´ silence. I cannot understand why the EU and the US are not loud and clear about these medieval approach to governance in Egypt. 

EU and Ukraine: what´s next?

The Ukrainian situation remains at the top of the EU agenda. It is true that the crisis keeps widening. But there is another major reason. Brussels is preparing itself for the next summit meeting with Russia, scheduled for 28 January. And the Europeans are struggling to find a common and effective position on Ukraine to bring to the summit table. The countries to the East of EU are pushing for a very strong statement on Ukraine. They think that will contain Russia´s European ambitions. Other countries, lead by Germany, believe that trade issues are more important than the Ukrainian fate.

In the meantime, Baroness Ashton is getting ready to travel to Kiev. She will bring a message about human rights and democracy. That´s not bad. But it is not enough to unlock the current impasse between Yanukovych and the opposition. 

Ukrainian escalation

We are witnessing a serious escalation of the Ukrainian crisis. There are good reasons to be very worried.

It is now impossible to remain silent and inactive. There is a need to build bridges between the two sides.

It is true that no-one on either side of the divide seems interested in dialogue. But the outside world has to tell them that there is no other way out of the current dangerous situation. 

We need a new approach to EU external military deployments

The decision to deploy an EU brigade to Bangui –EUFOR RCA – has now been taken. The level of ambition and the duration of this mission are very limited, at best 6 months, and just to protect the international airport.

But that´s not my point today.

The decision has shown once more that the EU has to adopt a different model to finance this type of missions. They cannot be financed by the participating countries. Some countries would be ready to supply the soldiers and the logistical military support but they can´t afford the costs. Portugal is just one those countries. Lisbon would be willing to deploy but the defence budget for 2014 cannot pay for it. This means the Portuguese will stay away.

These missions should be funded from a common EU budget. Each member state should contribute to the annual replenishment of that fund in accordance with their GDP per capita. This is the only way to approach in more proactive way the external peace keeping operations of the EU. If it is not adopted, we will continue to see a contradiction between the decision to assist counties in crisis and the effective deployment of a credible force. The foreign ministers will taken the decision but the soldiers will not reach the ground on time and in sufficient numbers.

 And Germany, among others, will never be part of any effort of this type. Not even by contributing a few euros. 

The Central African Republic: the coming days can change the situation.

I spent a good deal of the day looking at the new developments in the Central Africa Republic. And I came to the conclusion that the departure from power of Michel Djotodia, the Interim President that rode the March rebellion and subsequently lost control of its own allied rebel forces, the Seleka combatants, opens a window of opportunity for security and reconciliation. The sooner the new Interim President is chosen by the assembly of representatives the better.

Then, the partners of the country should provide enough resources for him to be able to rebuild the national security forces and bring law and order back. This is where the priority should lie. 

Erdogan´s undemocratic path

We should be very worried in view of the recent developments in Turkey. And today we should be even more apprehensive. Erdogan´s comments against the judiciary do not augur well. They show he believes that politics is above the rule of law. A leader cannot claim he has a popular mandate that allows him to go beyond the bounds of the constitution and the laws of the land.

 Erdogan has to respect the democratic rules and Turkey´s legal system. If he doesn’t, where is the country going to?

Europe and the US have not been brave enough to have a proper political dialogue with Erdogan. They remained silent when he did what he did to the military establishment. And they are directionless again, as the democracy is more and more at stake in Turkey. 

Today´s EU Council made me think of a funeral wake

The EU Council meeting has just ended in Brussels. The atmosphere in the room was not good. There was more suspicion and rivalry around the table than willingness to address the key challenges. Some were just looking in the direction of Cameron and asking themselves why is it the UK has been accepted as a member? I am sure that one or two even recalled in their minds old man De Gaulle and is opposition to Britain´s membership, and might have thought he was a politician of vision.  Others might have looked in Samaras direction and wondered about Greece´s presence in the club. The same they thought could be said about Cyprus, Romania, Bulgaria, Portugal and some other countries. Then, there was Angela Merkel. I get the impression the leaders were just trying to spot any change in her posture and opinions, now that she has consolidated once again her authority within German politics.

And there were Van Rompuy and Barroso out there. They might have looked to some of the stronger and harsher leaders as two phantoms that are just dragging their feet in the EU corridors, as ghosts that wait for the village priest to come and exorcise them from the place. They are experiencing a painful end of term and everybody knows that. But they are not alone in their predicament. Baroness Ashton keeps them the company she can.

This is indeed a time of morose for the European leaders. Europe as a project is at standstill. 2014 will be a year without collective ambitions. Each country will try to keep afloat. And each leader will be just confined and paying attention to the domestic fires. The EU elections in May next year will come and go without capturing people´s attention.

We will see. 

EU and Russia: the winter of a relationship

The political relations between the EU and Russia are going through a low point. And my advice is very simple: this is no time to make waves. Let the sleeping dog lie. This should be, on our side, the inspiring line for the next few months. Keep the engagement but keep it low intensity. Let´s be patient and distant.

However this should not prevent our side from working on a strategy for the future. Quietly, but firmly and with the right vision. 

Putin's writings

President Putin’s opinion text in the New York Times is worth the reading. First, it is well written. Second, it says a few things that make sense, including the reference to the “exceptionalism” the US claim. Third, it keeps the door open for dialogue.

But it is also an extraordinary piece of cynicism. Many of the accusations he implies against the US can also be made towards Russia, including an extreme form of Russian nationalism that is not far from the American exceptionalism.

The wise thing to do is to take the good points he makes and engage the Russians on them. That’s why the meeting that is taking place in Geneva between Secretary Kerry and Minister Lavrov is of great importance. It has, however, to produce concrete results. Time is of the essence. Agreements and action plans, and above all a UN Security Council Resolution on the destruction of Syria’s chemical arsenal, need to be out and running soonest.

Furthermore, besides addressing the chemical weapons issue it is also critical to bring to justice the perpetrators of the 21 August massacres. A Resolution on this matter is also necessary.

With all this in mind, Syria’s case remains the priority number one in the global lists of issues. The daily death toll and the incredible number of refugees and internally displaced people are a reminder of that. A painful reminder, a dramatic reality for millions of people. 

EU, Syria, ICC and imagination

International law and moral principles are against collective punishment. One cannot punish the people for the crimes perpetrated by some of their leaders. Even in matters of war crimes and related offenses, the responsibility cannot be attributed to a group of leaders. It has to be linked to the individual responsibilities of each one of them, taking into account that there are different degrees of responsibility that call for different types of sentences. That’s why I think it is important to underline the following paragraph in Baroness Ashton’s statement of yesterday on the situation in Syria:

“The EU recalls the individual responsibility of the perpetrators of attacks of this type, who must be held accountable, and the role of the ICC in investigating and judging such acts.”

I wrote something similar in my weekly column of Visao, two or three days ago. But I went further. The UN Security Council has the duty to refer the chemical attacks to the International Criminal Court for investigation. It will be the Court that will decide on who should be in the list of suspects and then proceed against each one of them.

This is the way forward. 

It can, of course, be combined with a political process. And it should.

They are both missing. The ICC and the political process.

Some of us continue to prefer action to justice and imagination. Yes, imagination, because a political process in the case of Syria is above all an exercise extremely demanding in terms of creativity. 

Iran's new President

Today Hassan Rouhani has replaced Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president of Iran. Like many within the country, I think the key players in the international community should see the new leader as an opportunity for constructive re-engagement with Iran. The approach to be followed has to be gradual, of course, and implemented by the Six-Party powers in a very well co-ordinated manner.

Rouhani’s two main concerns are clear to me: to put a stop to the serious economic decline Ahmadinejad’s policies have generated; and to improve the country’s relations with the key international players.

 If we in the West are aware of these imperatives he is confronted with and play along, we might achieve some degree of success.

It is in our interest to see a turnaround in the economy of Iran and have a leadership in Tehran that understands that international cooperation is the best option for them and for the region. 

The Security Council has to look at the Egyptian crisis soonest

I wrote yesterday’s post hours before the new dramatic developments in Egypt. At the end of my writing, I said “everything else is too tragic to contemplate”.

Today, we have to contemplate it. Many people – the exact figure remains unclear – were shot at when demonstrating in the streets of Cairo. The bullets came from the armed forces and the police side. In some cases, there was a deliberate intention to kill. Sniper fire is about “executing” people. And snipers are very extensively trained sharpshooters that can only be found, in a country like Egypt, within the official security apparatus.

It is time for the international community to come in and offer the bridges and platforms for dialogue that the Egyptians themselves might not be able to construct. Indeed, the Egyptian society seems too divided to be able to sit together on their own and agree together on a way out of the deep crisis and on their future. Key members of Security Council should step in now. The pressure for them to take up their international responsibility should come from all quarters. Without that pressure from the international public opinion, those countries will not act. They will continue to pretend that they are very busy elsewhere and that Egypt is mature enough to solve her own problems.

This is the time to act. 

UK and the EU

As I prepared myself in order to write an opinion piece about the European Union’s prospects and priorities for next year or so I noticed that the UK Cabinet is, by far, the government that invests the largest amount of resources in reviewing the current performance of the EU institutions – particularly the Commission. Gradually, they are placing themselves in a position to have a critical influence on determining the agenda of the future, including the reform of the machinery and the role of the institutions. London will also be leading the devolution of power campaign that is inevitable in the near future. And Cameron and Hague are already placing some very subtle pressure on Berlin to have the Germans on their side. 

Kerry's efforts

John Kerry, the US Secretary of State, has spent most of his time, during the last two weeks or so, trying to resuscitate the “final status negotiations” –that’s the official expression to name the talks between Israel and Palestine on border issues, security arrangements, and the fate of the Palestinian refugees.

Today it seems that his efforts are bearing fruit. We might see both countries back at the negotiating table, after five years of interruption and stalemate, next week. This is great news. I think it is important to recognize Kerry’s efforts.

And encourage him – and above all, President Obama – to continue along the same line, notwithstanding every bit of resistance Prime Minister Netanyahu will try to raise. At the end of the day, the key to very complex situation that defines the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is as much in Washington as it is in the region.