Italy must reform soon

Giuseppe Conte is back as head of the new Italian government. Not a very easy task that of chairing a coalition between the 5-Star Movement and the PD (Democratic Party, a social-democrat party). They can stay in power for three years, until the end of the current Parliament. They can also fall apart soon. Nobody knows. What we know is that the new government – Conte II – has many divisive issues to deal with. The country is not in a very good shape, to put it diplomatically. It calls for serious reforms. Those reforms require consensus within the coalition, a very wise approach and lots of political courage. In addition, many people think that Matteo Salvini, the League’s leader, is a better option, that he is the one that can transform Italy. He is not, in my opinion, but what matters is the Italian voters’ views. He will be leading the opposition against this new government. In the end, if Italy does not address its problems – and I have serious doubts it will – Salvini might end up back in power again. And bring with him the image of a strong and resolute man. That would be a game changer. Certainly not a good one, in the end, but it would be too late to stop him.

Renzi´s fall and our worries

Italy has known 63 governments since 1945. That´s a lot of instability during a long period of 70 years. And most likely, the current government, led by Matteo Renzi, will fall after this coming Sunday´s referendum. It´s certainly no good news. Particularly at a time when the Italian banking system and the economy require the support of a strong and stable Cabinet.

In Brussels and in the financial centres of Europe most people believe that there will be no negative impact if Renzi falls and becomes just a caretaker Prime Minister. They have basically in mind the European politics and the markets.

But I think they are a bit short-sighted.

First, there will a very serious impact on the internal politics of Italy. That will give an additional chance to the 5-Star Movement and others, including the racist Lega Nord, to gain additional votes and mess up the domestic politics. Second, the banking system is in a far worst situation than we are prepared to accept. Cabinet needs to have full power to be able to adopt the measures that are required to address the banking crisis. Thirdly, the EU would certainly benefit from a stronger leader in Rome. Renzi has not been able to play an active role in European affairs. If he loses, but stays on, as interim leader, his intervention will be even lighter. If he goes, the new leader will be too busy trying to ground himself in the national politics to have time for Brussels.

For these reasons, one should be worried. 

A non-event in Bratislava

For me, the most striking facet of yesterday´s EU summit in Bratislava is clear: it was non-event in terms of the European public opinion. The EU citizens took no notice of it. And that should be a good reason to be worried. At a time of mediocrity and obscurity, when everyone is looking for answers and strategies that could make sense, the heads of State and govern were once more unable to go beyond banalities and piecemeal promises. And, as usual, they announced that it will at the next big summit, this time in March 2017 in Rome, that everything will become clear. 

The 2016 G7 Summit is over

This year´s G7 Summit, just completed in Japan, made no history. It was hardly noticed by the European public opinion, just to mention those close to home. Jean-Claude Juncker, the EU Commission President made some brief references to the steel dispute with China, on top of mentioning that the European economy is now much better than in 2008 and that it is moving in a healthy direction. Well, that´s good to know. Donald Tusk, the EU Council President, said a couple of things as well, but no one remembers a word of it. And that was basically the European side of the story, because Merkel, Hollande and Renzi were too concerned about their own domestic problems to be able to fly higher than their national contexts.

Moreover, there was a small number of heads of State from non-G7 countries at the tail end of the summit. They were certainly very happy to sit with the big people and be part of the group picture. But their contribution to the discussions remains unclear. Most likely, to them as well.

Obama and the four EU leaders: a comment

President Obama, on the last day of his visit to Germany, met with Angela Markel, David Cameron, François Hollande and Matteo Renzi. In my opinion, he should have invited Donald Tusk as well. This would have added strength to his speeches about the EU´s relevance. Words are important and the President said the right ones. But he missed the opportunity to show he means business when supporting Europe´s unity.

The meeting lasted two hours. Most of the time was spent on the situation in Syria, including the positions that should be taken regarding the Geneva negotiating process, which is now out of the rails, and the fight against the Islamic State terrorists. On the latter, it is clear the IS has been losing ground. There is less money available, less volunteer fighters, and greater military pressure on them. The additional deployment of 250 US Special Forces, announced moments before the meeting by Obama, is also a significant development in combatting the terrorists. I hope the Germans in particular will also increase their contribution to the ground operations.

The rest of the meeting focussed on Libya. Italy and the UK are most likely to intensify their support to the recognised Libyan Prime Minister. And in addition, we should see more naval patrols off the Libyan coast soon. There are some differences of opinion about the nature of such maritime task force: should it be a NATO-led force or should it be an expansion of the current EU-sponsored naval presence? In any case, the maritime effort should be a supporting one to the actions on the ground inside Libya. The priority is on land and that means stabilising the situation in that North African country.

Tunisia should count with the European support

The popular rally against terrorism that today brought thousands of people to the main avenues of the Tunisian capital should be seen as a sign of hope. I am also pleased to see François Hollande and Matteo Renzi among the crowd. European leaders have to be seen as supporting the struggle of the Tunisian people against all types of violent extremists. 

Italy´s promising presidency of the EU

The Italian presidency, this semester, of the EU might bring in a new debate about economic growth, fiscal responsibility and the role of national governments vis-a-vis the Brussels institutions.

Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is a young politician. He brings a bit of courage and fresh air to EU politics. We might disagree with some of his positions but we should recognise that his interventions are forcing the German politicians and other leaders from the North to engage in a dialogue that had been missing for a long while.

EU has a lot to gain from a proper exchange of contradictory but well formulated views. Political diversity is good for Europe.