Our Putin policy

Russia in fat letters

Victor Angelo

 

This week, Vladimir Putin and Russia made headlines again. One of the reasons was the message of congratulations that Putin sent to Joe Biden. The Russian leader turned out to be one of the last heads of state to congratulate the winner of the US elections. The pretext for the delay was to wait for the results of the Electoral College. This formalism, which was impeccable from a legal point of view, but undiplomatic and inconsequential in terms of future relations, barely conceals Putin's preference for Donald Trump. In Moscow's view, Trump's incompetent, incoherent and divisive policy was the one that most weakened the international position of the USA and best served the Russian geopolitical renaissance. Not to mention, of course, the deference that the American always showed for the Kremlin's strong man. 

Putin's message speaks of cooperation and puts his country on a par with the USA, in the very exclusive league of the great states "especially responsible for global security and stability". Putin, always attentive, takes this opportunity to reaffirm his country's indispensable role on the world stage.

In the meantime, other headlines have emerged about Russia. Since March she has been accused of infiltrating the computer systems of several major American targets. The list of federal institutions and private companies violated, as well as the level of refinement used, show the gigantic scale of the operation, which can only have been carried out by the highly specialised services that make up the official Russian espionage web. It is true that other countries are constantly trying to do the same. But the fact is that the Russians have succeeded and for a long time. This can only mean that the leadership invests exceptionally in cyber-espionage. It will never be known exactly what information has been extracted. The hope remains that the volume of data will be of such magnitude that it will eventually overwhelm the analysts. In these matters, it is one thing to obtain information, but another to have the capacity to carry out its analysis, in order to transform it into knowledge and courses of action, and this in good time, which becomes short as soon as the infiltration is discovered.

To complete the bunch, it was simultaneously noticed that the Russians had also pirated the European Medicines Agency. And CNN published a detailed report of the persecution and poisoning of the opposition figure, Alexei Navalny, by Putin's agents. Then came the news about doping and the ban on participation in the next Olympic Games. A series of negative headlines about a regime that loves to sell its image as respectable.  

Amid all this, Europeans extended sanctions against Russia until July 2021. These measures, which come from 2014 and relate to Russian armed intrusions into Ukraine and the occupation of the Crimea, have a narrow scope. They do not include, for example, the suspension of the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which will link Russia and Germany across the Baltic. Another title of the week was to announce that work on the installation of the pipeline had resumed and had even entered the final phase.

The reality is that EU leaders do not have a clear political vision of what the relationship with Russia should be like. There has been much debate on the issue, including the design of scenarios, but no agreement. The trend seems to me, as we look at the decade ahead, a mixture of deadlock, hesitation, opportunism, mistrust, and detachment. A policy of uncertainties, with Putin setting the pace.

The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), now with Helga Schmid at the helm, should seek to be the bridge for dialogue between us and Moscow. But not only that. The EU's external agenda needs to define a strategic line on Russia, including proposals for joint action, first in areas of least controversy and serving to build understanding and trust. The same should happen at the military level, both in the EU and NATO. Russia is our massive neighbour. Threatening, certainly, with autocratic leadership, but geographically, culturally, and economically close. A policy of locked doors has no way out.

 

(Automatic translation of the opinion piece I published today in the Diário de Notícias, the old and prestigious Lisbon newspaper)

 

 

Juncker's major shortcoming

On this European Day, I wrote in my Portuguese language blog “Vistas Largas” that a lot has been achieved in terms of our common future and joint response to many challenges. But I also added that the European Commission has been mediocre in matters of strategic communications. There is no Commissioner with that kind of portfolio – this should be corrected when the new team takes power in November. And the Commission seems to believe that press conferences, press releases and a crowd of spokespersons are enough to cover the information needs of the European citizens. That’s not a strategic approach. And the experience has shown that it is not enough to keep the citizens aware and get their active involvement in European matters.

If people do not know, they do not support. And they become vulnerable to those who lie and disseminate anti-EU propaganda. That’s where many of us find ourselves today, a few weeks before the next European parliamentary election.

This is a major failure of the outgoing Juncker team. A far-reaching one.

Renewed confidence in Europe

The EU leaders participating in the forthcoming G20 Summit, scheduled for next week, met today in Germany to coordinate their views on key agenda issues.

This was a very positive initiative, a development that should be recognised.

It shows a fresh level of determination in matters of European policy coordination and harmonization. It was also a manifestation of the new momentum Europe is experiencing and that gives us a new breath of confidence in our shared future. 

The image issue

The EU Commission should demonstrate they are in charge, in those matters they have authority to take decisions. And it should also be able to show a couple of positive actions. Both are urgent. The image remains the main battle field and it is deteriorating. That calls for a major change.

Refugees: it´s time to regain the political initiative

In politics it´s a very costly mistake to be perceived as having lost control of a serious situation. This is particularly true in the developed countries. They have the resources, the rules and the institutions to respond to major challenges. Then, when the response seems chaotic and directionless, the loss of credibility is enormous. The institutional approaches are then replaced by the reactions on the streets and the emotions on the small TV screens. And all that ends up by generating major problems that societies will have to confront sooner or later.

Therefore, when control is lost the most urgent action that is required is to regain the initiative. 

Immigration: a political vacuum of collective European irresponsibility

The numbers keep adding every day. They also make it obvious that there is no European strategy to deal with the migrant flows across the Mediterranean Sea. The navy ships do their job, rescue the poor souls at sea and bring them to the shores. And after that, there is an empty policy space – a political vacuum of collective European irresponsibility – with everybody else hoping the Italians will take care of the immense problem. 

The professor of futilities

Le Monde published yesterday several hundred words written by a university professor who is also the chairman of the French Cercle des Economistes. The text was supposed to make suggestions about youth employment promotion in a context of crisis, especially taking into account that Mr Hollande's government will have to cut public expenditure by Euro 60 billion in the next five years.

I read it twice and came to the conclusion that this economist and most of the academics are off mark. They can't make any valid set of proposals. The reason is very simple: they remain inside the box, they do not want to antagonise the established political establishment. They have not yet realised that the European world is changing fast and that many young people have not been prepared by the education systems to navigate in a different type of context. 

Prejudices

Copyright V.Angelo

Different approaches are welcome as long as they sustain a common project. 

We cannot fall into the trap that sees some Europeans as just part of the decoration and little less. Some people in Brussels and in some Northern capitals are again tempted to look at nations from that perspective. We all know that arrogance and contempt have filled the history of Europe with wars and pain.

Sovereign nightmares

The New Year brings back the sovereign debt question as the most urgent issue for the EU member States. Now that it is clear that Greece and Ireland have reached unsustainable levels of debt, all the attentions are moving to Portugal. On Wednesday next week, Lisbon will be again in the market to try to place Treasury paper. There is deep anxiety in Brussels and other capitals about the investors' response to that move.

The Portuguese government has shown they prefer to pay very high rates of interest to making use of the EU/IMF financial facility. This option is politically expedient in the short run. It delays the moment for hard decisions, particularly at a time when the presidential elections are around the corner, on 23 January, and the government's candidate is lagging behind in the polls. But, sooner or later, the moment of truth will come. The poor performance of the country's economy will then hit the wall.

In support of the European project

Both Chancellor Merkel's and President Sarkozy's New Year messages had strong words in support of the European project. They should be acknowledged. This is what I call leadership. It is important to set the path, particularly at times of confusion and hesitation.

The Berlaymont ghost

These days, there is a ghost walking the corridors of the Berlaymont building. People talk about him, give him a name, put a French accent in his voice, as they also put words and comments on his mouth, compare him with the present tenant, and feed the malaise.

The current tenant is the one that fears most this strange ghost. He gets very annoyed when he hears his name, and mad when people draw comparisons. He then asks his advisors to talk to the friendly media hacks. The point is to get a favourable press, to show that the ghost is from another time and circumstances. And that, in any case, when he was real, a few decades ago, he was no better then today's man.