Hormuz tensions

Yesterday’s attacks on two petrochemical tankers sailing in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz should ring strident alarm bells. They make obvious there is a strong player that is betting on escalating the tensions in the region. And the fact of the matter is that we do not know who is playing such a destructive card.

We can try to guess based on a careful analysis of some nations’ strategic interests. However, at this stage to point the finger in one direction only contributes to augment the tension. It is certainly not the wisest approach. It should not be accepted.

The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, should step forward and offer the organisation’s good offices to carry out an independent investigation of the incidents. The International Maritime Organisation could be part of it. In the meantime, he should dispatch a Special Envoy to the region. For instance, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs. That move would help to lessen the regional political temperature.

Guterres as the new UN boss

António Guterres´s swearing-in ceremony took place today. He is now ready to take over from Ban Ki-moon on 1 January 2017. And he has clearly spelled out, in today´s speech, the key priorities he sees for his mandate: first, to augment the UN´s ability to better contribute to the different stages of crisis management; second, to reorganise the system´s development machinery to make it more coherent and have a stronger field presence; third, to reform the UN, with a clear stress on delivery and improved public communication.

He is aware of the many difficulties ahead. For that reason, he underlined the importance he gives to partnering with other institutions and the member states. It is clear the UN should never work on critical issues alone.

Furthermore, all the work should be inspired by the principles that are enshrined in the UN Charter. A values-based approach gives the UN a stronger sense of mission and enhances its credibility.

One of those key values concerns the basic rights of everyone. They should be respected. That´s the foundation of peace and international cooperation.

Some people would call it respecting the dignity of our fellow humans. I think that concept could be understood differently by different people. I prefer to say human rights. They require no interpretation and have no faith-based connotation. It´s just a question of implementing the existing, universally approved principles. They are clearly written in the UN Convention.

They are often wrong but the salary is great

My daily tasks include a close scrutiny of the financial analysts’ opinions and forecasts. And I am very often amazed. The spectrum of views is so wide and the predictions are so often off track! With time, their forecasts are systematically contradicted by the facts, particularly at times like the present one when the unknowns are many. But they always have a good excuse. And they earn good salaries. All that makes me wonder, now and then, if I have not chosen the wrong career path. 

To ignore the threats has also a cost

We keep talking about the cost of each peacekeeping operation, the funds required by proactive diplomacy and crisis prevention, the expenses related to military deployments in far-flung lands, etc.

But we never ask the other question: what would be the cost of inaction, what would be the financial, economic and human costs if we decide to remain out and passive?

There is indeed a cost if we help. However, sometimes that cost is just much smaller than the consequences of deciding to ignore.

This is certainly one example of a question that we have to start raising.