Nice

The brutality of the Nice attack is most shocking. There are a few security lessons that can be drawn from this inhumane violence. But that should be done with a cold head. To go for conclusions so soon after the tragedy is not wise. Now it is time to express the horror and share our sympathy with all those who have been impacted by the barbaric act. And also to say that life goes on and we will not change our values and our way of living because some crazy beasts want us to feel terrorised.

May day in the UK

Theresa May is now the new UK Prime Minister. Her most immediate task, as we see it from the EU side, should be to initiate the exit process soonest.

She might not agree with the urgency of it. But the European leaders must keep the pressure on her and help her to understand that there is no gain and no space for delaying manoeuvres. That´s what the European citizens expect from their leaders as well.

I recognise the actual negotiations might take long. Those negotiations are however about technical issues and the very specific points of the future relationship. They should be conducted within a clear political framework, well balanced and based on established principles and rules. It is that guiding framework that needs to be defined first and without any undue delay.

China and the international law

Today´s ruling against China by the Permanent Court of Arbitration, a Hague-based UN-related institution, should be noted as a milestone. It concerns one of the potentially explosive areas of the globe, the South China Sea. It recognises that China´s maritime claims to about 85% of that sea are not founded. Furthermore, the Tribunal stated that China has repeatedly violated the sovereign rights of the Philippines and caused considerable harm to the maritime environment.

This decision will have a serious impact on further developments in the region.

China has not accepted the ruling and will continue its policy of military control of the area. That will clash with the interests of the Philippines and also of the other neighbouring countries. It will also aggravate the naval and political tensions with the US.

But China will be on the wrong side of the international law. And it should be constantly reminded that as a Permanent Member of the Security Council it has special international responsibilities. These responsibilities start with respecting the UN-backed tribunals and their patiently worked out decisions.

The NATO Summit

The NATO Summit in Warsaw, which is about to start, will endorse a major policy shift. It will squarely move the organisation into an all-out deterrence mode. And it will do it based on credible operational capabilities.

Russia might be tempted to respond by accelerating the investments in the modernisation of its armed forces. That´s the most obvious option for them. The one that will satisfy the hard core nationalist part of the Russian public opinion as well as the powerful military establishment.

But I am also convinced that the Kremlin leadership will understand, sooner than later, that re-opening the dialogue with the West is a much better -- and by far, much more affordable -- option than betting on the arms race.

Fighting for the public opinion

It is worrying to see the growing number of opportunistic columnists and politicians writing and stating foolish opinions about the EU. They think that´s what will make them popular and look smart. It´s about their personal gain, as they see it in their hearts. But for me, they  are just unwise and self-centred. And also very dangerous, as they are creating the conditions for a serious backlash in Europe.

It´s time to respond to this very serious threat. To engage in the war of narratives, I mean.

Murdoch against the EU

The billionaire Rupert Murdoch owns several, diversified press groups in Australia, Hong Kong, the US and the UK. As a result, he controls a good share of the information that shapes the views of many ordinary people in these different countries. In Australia, for instance, about 60% of the media, both national and local, is under the grip of his holding group. In the US, Murdoch´s main vehicle is anchored on Fox TV, which has a tremendous influence on the conservative public opinion. In the UK, his empire is built around the daily tabloid The Sun, but comprises other means, including TV, and also that “old lady” of the British press, The Times.

Murdoch, who is now 85, loves political power and the games that go along with it. He is always ready to play a major role in the building of the most populist political agendas and to actively support the blatantly conservative causes. All that is rooted in a very old fashioned way of looking at the world from an outdated and long gone Anglo-Saxon perspective.

His British media tools were decisively behind the Brexit propaganda. His loyal scribes made use of them to actively and purposely misinform and misguide the British grassroots readers. And also to promote the key advocates of quitting. Lies and half-truths make excellent headlines.

Now that the referendum results are in the bag, Murdoch has instructed his agents to move to the next stage of his anti-EU crusade: to attack the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker. The insinuations and fabrications have started in a very subtle way by placing dismissive and unsettling words in the mouth of no-name-mentioned German diplomats. They are abundantly “quoted”, but nobody knows their identities. And the Murdoch boys and girls are doing it in a smart way, by using the very serious Times, instead of the more sensationalist papers the group controls. The Times pretends, and then other media outlets take the cue from it, that Germany sees Juncker as major problem and therefore it will be asking for Juncker´s departure later in the year or soon after that.

This is the new stage of Murdoch´s anti-EU demolition initiative.

It is also a smart move to justify the Brexit option to the very sceptic eyes in the UK. Particularly now, that the Brexit promoters are in some kind of disarray and also under fire. The best and better informed sectors of the UK are on the offensive against the “quitters” and their irresponsible behaviour.

In the near future we will see the anti-Juncker campaign moving to the level of the personal insult. That will the task reserved for the tabloids Murdoch owns. They will be gladly accompanied by other European media organs, both in the UK, including by The Telegraph, and elsewhere. That´s a good way to continue the job of undermining the EU and its institutions.

And Rupert Murdoch, if we let him on the loose, will be able to claim that he is always a winner.

EU: the Slovakian presidency

As of today and for the next six months, Slovakia will take the lead within the EU. It is the first time they are in charge.

I have read the plan they put together for their turn and found it well thought through. It gives quite a bit of attention to economic growth, the digital economy, energy policy, and innovation as well as to the trade agreements that are under negotiation.

It also mentions migrations and asylum but these are the two areas that come out as weak. Slovakia appears, like many other countries in that part of Europe, unable to put forward an approach that would balance their fears with the EU´s commitments and duties in these matters.

Migrations and asylum policies will remain notwithstanding top priorities for the EU during their presidency. And they will call for better defined and more convincing lines of intervention by the whole of the EU.

EU Global Strategy: an initial comment

The EU High Representative has now presented to the Heads of State and Government the new “Global Strategy”.

I have seen the document but still need to digest the contents. My initial reaction is that the strategy is placing too much emphasis on EU´s role on defence. That might be a huge mistake.

First, because in matters of defence the key goal should be to strengthen the European nations ´capabilities within NATO. That´s the existing commitment, made at the last NATO summit meeting, and also that´s the only way for the Europeans to be able to leverage the US and Turkey´s powerful military machineries. They need to create and combine additional capacity with the extraordinary capacity non-EU NATO members have, particularly the US.

Second, the EU States have to take into account the new situation of the UK. It is unquestionable this country has the best European army. But it will outside the EU in the medium term. They will no longer be part of any EU defence arrangement. To take advantage of their power can only occur elsewhere, not within the EU. Elsewhere means to have to look into NATO´s direction again.

The Spanish elections: Act 2

Once again the opinion polls were wrong. This time they missed the picture in the Spanish general elections. The forecasts and the final results belong to two different worlds. And this raises a definitive question: the sampling methods are outdated. The polls as they are presently carried out can´t be trusted anymore. A new type of pre-electoral analysis is required. We have an opening here.

Regarding the elections outcome, outgoing Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy should be congratulated. His party, in the centre-right of the political spectrum, did much better than expected. But the number of seats he got is not enough to have a majority. In the circumstances, he would prefer to lead a grand coalition that would bring together his party, the Socialists and the citizens’ movement of liberal inspiration, known as Ciudadanos.

I do not think that will happen. In the end, Rajoy will have to govern alone, and hope the Socialists will let him move on and stay in charge. That´s a very precarious arrangement. It will not last. Basically, as I see it, we will have general elections again any time in the second half of 2017. 

Brexit: the days after

So, my guess of yesterday was wrong. The “quitters” won. And I felt a bit of fool because I had reached that same conclusion long ago that Brexit would take over. I thought so for a good deal of time and only changed my mind during the very last stretch of the process, influenced I was by the bookmakers and the financial analysts and other stock market gurus.

Well, that´s how it is now.

But one should raise the question, once again, about the professional competence of the financial analysts. They are paid fortunes, they work in large teams, they have all the information and techniques, and then they end up by messing up.

The polls were also wrong. It was less surprising though as this was a vote of a unique type and there were little past references to guide the extrapolations.

It´s true that the score came as a big surprise. Many of my British friends were simply shocked. They work in international places and could not understand the choice made by the majority of the voters.

That´s democracy.

Now, the point is for the EU to prepare very well for the negotiations with the UK. On the European side, it is important to have a clear understanding about the EU´s interests and be resolute in their defence. It is also important to show that this is a true and tough negotiation. The people in the different corners of Europe have to see this discussions as exemplary.

It is also critical to rethink the relationship between the EU institutions and the citizens. It´s time to take this matter seriously, well beyond grandiloquent declarations and be able to show that the institutions are dealing with the issues that matter for the citizen. There is a need for narrow focus, good communications and political courage.