Crying for Italy

Today, we should say we are all Italians. The country is going through a catastrophic health crisis. The number of casualties is now bigger than the one experience by China, a nation that is many times more populous than Italy. We can only be deeply disturbed and extremely sorry.

The lessons will be drawn later. At this stage, it is vital to provide all types of support to the Italian health system. That should be a key priority within the EU. Ursula von der Leyen should be speaking about that day and night.

Fast and plenty of money

The key concern is to safe lives. All the efforts should take that as a priority. And make sure that the infection trend is bent and starts pointing down. The sooner we change the trend the better. It will send a message of hope. And that type of message is urgently needed.

The economy is the other dimension we must consider. We cannot find ourselves surviving the disease and dying of the treatment. The productive tissue must remain as intact as possible. Firms and jobs must be helped. They will require major injections of fresh capital. The leaders should keep sending the message that money will not be a problem.

The health challenges in the refugee camps

How is the coronavirus situation in the refugee camps around Syria? What is the risk level? Are the host governments, the UN and the NGOs prepared to deal with such threat?

I do not have an answer to these questions. And I am afraid we have lost sight of them, as well.

The Democratic candidate

The coronavirus has erased the Democratic party’s primaries from the news. Who remembers that Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders had a debate just yesterday? Even those who know about it can’t tell what the meat of such debate was. 

As such, it would be advisable to bring the primaries to an end. That would mean Sanders departing the race. Then, the Democrats could focus on promoting Biden as an alternative to the erratic and incompetent President we have today. 

Biden is an experienced politician but not a very good orator. His tone of voice doesn’t help either. It is not pleasant to hear. He must add to his presidential ticket not only a woman, as he promised he would do, but above all a woman that can speak better than he does.

Take example from Asia

In the combat against the coronavirus, Europe should learn from the experiences of China, South Korea and Macau. They were confronted with huge challenges and have found the way to respond to them. They based their responses on massive lockdowns, extensive testing and social isolation for everyone. In the case of China, the approach was complemented by building new hospitals in incredibly short periods of time and the mobilisation of every possible resource to produce simple intensive care equipment, protection medical suits, and the appropriate masks. In all three cases, the success was a combination of extreme civic discipline with the right type of hospital treatment.

Europe is now at the door of major expansion of the disease. It should be ready to coordinate its response. Unfortunately, that’s not the case. But, at least, it should keep as many people out of the public space as possible, for a small number of weeks. It would see the difference.

Unfortunately, many people have not yet grasped the intensity of the menace. The leaders should be frank about it. They should use the right words to explain the possible impact of the disease. To say that they do not want to contribute to alarmism is not an acceptable response. Europeans can handle hard truths if they are told the full story. It is my conviction that the leaders need to agree on a common European-wide discourse about COVID-19 and talk to the citizens based on that agreed music sheet. A lot of the success has to do with people’s behaviour. They should be told what the consequences of good or bad behaviour are.

President Trump's smart press conference

President Trump’s press conference about the coronavirus pandemic was a smart move. It was about big money, resources to fight the virus, and to show an alliance between his office and key pharmaceutical corporations. He said the usual banalities about the extraordinary job he is performing, attacked the Europeans and the Chinese, stated the populist slogans that are his banners, and so on. That was the painful part of the show. But the expressions of support he got from the medical specialists and the corporations gave the impression to the middle-of-the-road American Joe and Josephine that the President is mobilising every effort and his directing the campaign. That is a vote gainer and it is also appreciated by the markets. Not bad, when we know that a good deal of this challenge has to be fought at the level of the public opinion.

We have a crisis in our hands

In some European countries, today we have reached a turning point. They have adopted very stringent measures to contain the coronavirus pandemic. 

The decisions have nothing to do with President Trump’s harsh words about us, words that were pronounced yesterday, when he was announcing the entry ban on European visitors. 

Today’s measures, adopted in France, Belgium, Denmark, Spain, Portugal and elsewhere, are just an indication of the level of risk we are confronted with. The pandemic is a major menace, that was the message coming from the different governments. It is huge because nobody knows the dimension it might get, nobody is in a position to guess a timeframe but everyone sees it will have a major impact on human lives, on public resources, on living standards, on lots of economic, financial and social aspects.

In view of that, the preventive measures can only be of an extraordinary nature. Some might seem disproportionate, but who knows what is reasonable or excessive, in a crisis of this dimension?

Bernie must accept the facts

Bernie Sanders is on the losing side of the Democratic primaries. He wants to stay on and debate Joe Biden this coming Sunday. I think it is a divisive move, but I respect his decision. But my opinion about his campaign is very clear. Soon after the next round and if there is no miracle, he should acknowledge Biden’s victory and move out of the race. His continuation in the primaries can become a distraction. A serious one, when the objective is to gain enough leverage to beat President Trump.

Vladimir Putin is for ever

Vladimir Putin's current term of office ends in 2024. His country’s Constitution stipulates that he cannot run again. He has been in power for 20 years. But today, in the middle of all the sad and worrying news about the coronavirus, we got a nice breeze of fresh air coming from Moscow. The Russian Duma – Parliament – has approved a resolution that opens the way for Mr. Putin to stay in power until 2036. He will be 84 by then. That’s a very nice age for an early retirement from the Russian politics.

President Erdogan's visit to Brussels

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was in Brussels today.

First, he met the Secretary-General of NATO. He got a very simple message. NATO is already doing quite a bit for Turkey, in terms of deployment of radars and other means of defence. But it can’t do much more, particularly in support of Turkey’s campaign inside Syria. That would bring the Organization, sooner or later, into a direct clash with Russia. Nobody within the Alliance wants that to happen. Moreover, many within NATO are yet to understand the special defence relationship President Erdogan has developed with the Russian President. He seems to have one foot in NATO and the other in Moscow. That’s certainly a strange policy.

Second, he spent time with the EU leaders, Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen. The meeting came to no real conclusion. There is little love left within the EU for Erdogan’s actions, in particular for his manipulation of the migrant and refugee populations. Erdogan is seen by many as a problem, a big challenge at the gates of Europe.

If there is one conclusion to take from the visit, I would say that in Europe there is no trust on President Erdogan’s ambitions. That should be clearly stated.