European Union and China: competition and cooperation?

In today's edition of Diário de Notícias, 25/07/2025

This comprehensive analysis, penned by Victor Ângelo, paints a stark picture of Europe's geopolitical predicament, caught "between a rock and a hard place." It contrasts Europe's perceived fragility and historical focus with China's formidable and rapidly expanding global influence.

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China's Ascent: A Geopolitical Powerhouse

The author emphasizes that China, under a rigid central command, has become a prominent power with all the necessary conditions for global dominance:

• Central Geographical Location: Strategically positioned with a vast population and connections to billions more through the Belt and Road Initiative.

• Dominant Industrial Base and Innovation: Daily multiplication of industrial innovation, accelerated development in Artificial Intelligence (AI), quantum computing, and large-scale renewable energy production. The abundance of low-cost energy is highlighted as a major future asset for the digital economy.

• Assertive Diplomacy: China is seen as leveraging its diplomacy to exploit Europe's colonial past and the growing aggressiveness of the US, positioning itself as a new force for "national liberation" in the Global South.

• Unrivaled Military Modernization: The text asserts that China's military program is far more extensive and innovative than commonly estimated in the West. This includes being the world's leading builder of warships, massive investments in stealth aircraft, a constantly developing nuclear arsenal, digital espionage, AI and autonomous combat systems, space exploration, and dual-use technology.

• Patriotism and Cultural Pride: High levels of patriotism and cultural pride within the dominant Chinese population contribute to its assertiveness regarding Taiwan and the South China Sea.

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Europe's Perceived Weakness and Misconceptions

The author suggests that China views Europe as little more than a "historical curiosity" and a significant market, akin to a museum of fine arts and the past. This perspective implies that China doesn't see Europe as a major geopolitical power.

The text also points out what it considers the West's misjudgment regarding China:

• NATO's Blind Spot: The recent NATO summit in The Hague is criticized for not mentioning China, focusing instead on Russia and US arms acquisitions. While acknowledging Russia as a threat to some neighbors, the author argues Russia lacks the economic foundation to sustain its imperial ambitions long-term, unlike China.

• Outdated Defense Strategy: The traditional approach of high defense spending, large military parades, and advanced warplanes is deemed "misleading" and easily overcome by modern geopolitical warfare, where cheap drones purchased online can down sophisticated aircraft.

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Europe's Urgent Need for an Alternative

Europeans are urged to confront the realities of Donald Trump and the rise of Xi Jinping, lamenting that they appear to fear the former and ignore the latter. Given the distinct European mentality, an alternative path is deemed essential.

The proposed clear alternative for Europe involves:

• Defining Real Threats: Identifying genuine dangers.

• Defending European Unity: Strengthening internal cohesion.

• Protecting Democratic Regimes: Safeguarding core European values.

• Combating Political Extremism and Public Opinion Manipulation: Addressing internal vulnerabilities.

This is presented as vital political work rooted in truth in education and information, coupled with courageous public intervention. The author concludes that by electing such leaders, Europe will earn global respect and be able to deal with dictators effectively.

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This analysis serves as a powerful call to action for Europe to reassess its position and adopt a more realistic and proactive strategy in the face of shifting global power dynamics. 

A Europa e a China: uma relação complexa mas essencial

 No Diário de Notícias de hoje, 25/07/2025

A Europa entre a espada e a parede

Victor Ângelo

António Costa e Ursula von der Leyen estão desde ontem em Beijing, para uma cimeira no quadro dos 50 anos das relações diplomáticas entre as duas partes. Xi Jinping recusou deslocar-se a Bruxelas e só depois de muita insistência aceitou o encontro em Beijing.

A imprensa chinesa diz que a reunião é importante. Não podia falar de outra maneira, estando o presidente Xi presente. Mas, para além de verem o nosso continente como um mercado de grande relevo, a Europa é tida como uma curiosidade histórica e pouco mais. Vai-se ao continente africano para ver os cinco magníficos – o leão, o elefante, o búfalo, o rinoceronte e o leopardo. Da China, o turista vem à Europa para ver outras cinco maravilhas –a Catedral de Notre-Dame e o Museu do Louvre em Paris, o Monte Saint-Michel em França, a cidade de Veneza e o Vaticano em Roma, embora o leque de escolha seja bem mais vasto. África é o museu da natureza, e a Europa o das belas-artes e do passado. É neste contexto que para Xi, o poder geopolítico não mora aqui.

Ao olhar para o futuro próximo, digamos para os cinco anos que aí vêm, ou mesmo para um período mais longo de dez anos, a Europa continuará à procura dos fragmentos e dos projetos necessários para construir a sua unidade. A Europa, como união política, é uma entidade frágil. 

A China, ao contrário e com um comando central férreo, tem-se transformado numa potência proeminente. Tem todas as condições para o ser: uma situação geográfica absolutamente central, com uma dimensão populacional gigantesca, e outros milhares de milhões de pessoas nos países à sua volta ou a ela ligados pelos corredores terrestres e marítimos da Nova Rota da Seda. Possui uma base industrial dominante, multiplicada diariamente por uma inovação industrial imparável, pelo desenvolvimento acelerado da Inteligência Artificial, pela computação quântica e por uma produção em larga escala de energia renovável. A abundância em matéria de energia é um dos grandes trunfos do futuro. A economia digital precisa de muita energia, produzida a custos incrivelmente baixos.

Mais ainda, a China aposta numa diplomacia forte e de aparência construtiva, capaz de explorar as velhas feridas do passado colonial da Europa e a agressividade de novo crescente dos EUA. Será a diplomacia da nova libertação nacional para muitos países do Sul, que completarão agora o que não conseguiram fazer na primeira fase das independências coloniais, há cerca de cinco ou seis décadas. Podem agora contar com uma superpotência hostil ao velho colonialismo, a nova China.

Sem esquecer o alto grau de patriotismo e de orgulho cultural da parte dominante da população na China. Estas características são evidentes na maneira como a China tem modernizado as suas forças armadas, no aumento da sua assertividade em relação a Taiwan e a certos países ribeirinhos do Mar do Sul da China. O programa militar chinês é bem maior, mais inovador e integrado do que aquilo que se estima no Ocidente. Primeiro construtor mundial de navios de guerra, investimentos enormes em aeronaves furtivas, arsenal nuclear em constante desenvolvimento, espionagem digital, IA e sistemas autónomos de combate, a exploração do espaço, o uso dual da tecnologia, e tudo o mais que a China hoje é e ambiciona ser.  

O Ocidente parece estar equivocado em relação à China. A declaração aprovada pela NATO na recente cimeira de Haia não fez qualquer referência à China. Esteve mais preocupada com a Rússia e com a aquisição de armamento aos EUA. É verdade que a Rússia é uma ameaça para certos países vizinhos que não estão na sua esfera de influência. Mas não possui a base económica suficiente para sustentar a prazo os devaneios imperiais que herdou do passado.

Ao contrário, a China tem a economia necessária e aposta em três trunfos, que são a inovação tecnológica, o comércio internacional e um aparente respeito pela soberania de cada Estado. São apostas políticas. E, no futuro, ganhará quem der de si uma imagem pacífica e colocar as cartas do relacionamento externo sobretudo nas dimensões políticas.

O jogo é outro. Os cinco por cento em defesa, os aviões de guerra abatidos por drones adquiridos na Amazon ou no Alibaba por tuta e meia, os homens e as mulheres fardados em grande número para marcar passo e impressionar nos desfiles militares, tudo isso alimenta uma economia equívoca e gera um sentimento de defesa enganador, que facilmente se esvai na luta geopolítica.

Os europeus têm de saber lidar com Donald Trump e compreender o que está a acontecer na China. Para já, dão a impressão de ter medo do americano e de ignorar Xi Jinping e a geração que virá a seguir. Não podemos comparar a mentalidade europeia nem com a dominante nos EUA, nem com a da China. Precisamos, enquanto europeus, de oferecer uma alternativa. Que alternativa? A resposta é clara: definir quais são as ameaças reais, defender a unidade europeia, os nossos regimes democráticos, combater os extremismos políticos e a manipulação da opinião pública. Tudo isto é trabalho político, com verdade na educação e na informação, e coragem na intervenção pública. Se elegermos líderes assim, seremos respeitados por todos, de Washinton a Beijing, e trataremos dos ditadores com a distância e as barreiras que merecem.

Guterres lost the support of the staff many years back

 UN staff in Geneva yesterday passed a motion of no confidence in Antonio Guterres, UN 80 and its initiator, Guy Ryder👇🏼

The extraordinary general assembly was called by the union and attended by almost 600 staff. It adopted the following motion without opposition: “The staff have no confidence in UN80, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Under Secretary General Guy Ryder.”

This is the first motion of no confidence in a UN Secretary-General since staff in New York passed one in 2007.

According to the union's communication, support for the motion was based on:

- The lack of vision around UN 80 which has been done in a panic and with no evaluation of earlier reforms.
- The decision to present budget proposals for 2026 with 20 percent fewer posts, without any evidence that this will address the current crisis, even as other organisations approve zero-growth budgets.
- The reinforcement of the UN’s existing top-heavy structure. Most cuts are taking place at junior levels, no USGs are being cut and an instruction to cut senior positions appears to have become optional.
- The decision by the Secretary-General to extend USG contracts by 2 years, in some cases beyond his mandate, and promote his own staff, while restricting normal staff to extensions of 1 year with the intention of denying them termination indemnities in case of separation.
- The refusal to consult with staff representatives on post cuts.
- The proposal to multiply headquarters locations, which in time will increase costs.
- The impression that staff are taking the blame for the challenges of the organization, which may in part stem from the organization's lack of visibility in matters of peace and security.
- A new Secretary-General with their own vision may undertake further reforms that contradict UN 80.

The union represents staff from OHCHR, OCHA, UNCTAD, ECE, conference services, security, UNDRR, ODA, JIU, OIOS, the pension fund and UNRISD.

Comparing Victor Ângelo's views with others regarding the relations between Europe and ASEAN

 

Let’s zoom out and see how Victor Ângelo’s views on EU–ASEAN relations stack up against other diplomatic perspectives:

🌐 Shared Themes Across Diplomats and Analysts

• Strategic Importance of ASEAN: Like Ângelo, many experts highlight ASEAN’s role as a key partner for Europe. The EU sees ASEAN as vital for supply-chain resilience and geopolitical balance.
• Multipolarity and Nonalignment: Analysts from the European Union Institute for Security Studies note that ASEAN countries are actively diversifying alliances, avoiding overdependence on any single power — a theme Ângelo echoes in his call for deeper EU engagement.
• Cultural Sensitivity and Pragmatism: While Ângelo stresses empathy and cultural understanding, other voices emphasize practical, results-driven diplomacy over ideological alignment.

🧭 Diverging Priorities and Challenges

• Security vs. Trade Focus: Carnegie Europe points out that despite rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific, security hasn’t featured heavily on the EU–ASEAN agenda — a gap Ângelo seems keen to address.
• Democracy and Human Rights: The EU often struggles with how to engage ASEAN on normative issues like democracy and human rights, given ASEAN’s diverse political systems. Ângelo’s writing suggests a more constructive and reform-oriented approach, rather than confrontation.

📚 Intellectual and Institutional Voices

• The European Union and ASEAN official partnership documents emphasize multilateralism, sustainable development, and connectivity — aligning with Ângelo’s call for long-term strategic cooperation.
• Think tanks like Clingendael and Carnegie Endowment advocate for co-authored policy frameworks that reflect both European and Asian perspectives — a method that resonates with Ângelo’s emphasis on mutual respect and shared interests.

In essence, Victor Ângelo’s voice is part of a broader chorus calling for smarter, more empathetic diplomacy — but he adds a personal touch rooted in decades of field experience. 

Again about Europe and Asean

 

Victor Ângelo’s recent column in Diário de Notícias, titled É vital dar mais atenção à cooperação entre a UE e a ASEAN, offers a compelling and timely reflection on the evolving geopolitical dynamics between Europe and Southeast Asia. Here's how we might assess its worth:

🌍 Strategic Relevance

• Ângelo emphasizes the growing importance of ASEAN as a political and economic partner for the EU, especially in light of shifting global alliances and China's expanding influence.
• He argues that Europe must diversify its diplomatic ties and engage more deeply with ASEAN to remain a stabilizing force in global affairs.

🧠 Analytical Depth

• The piece is rich in geopolitical insight, referencing Macron’s symbolic invitation to Indonesian troops in Paris and the China-ASEAN free trade agreement as indicators of shifting power balances.
• Ângelo critiques both Washington’s unpredictability and Beijing’s assertiveness, positioning the EU as a potential counterweight.

🤝 Cultural and Diplomatic Nuance

• He highlights the need for cultural understanding between Europe and Southeast Asia, arguing that diplomacy must begin with empathy and mutual respect.
• The article calls out the lack of emphasis on cultural exchange in the EU’s current ASEAN strategy, suggesting this is a missed opportunity.

📣 Call to Action

• Ângelo urges the EU to strengthen its presence and influence in Southeast Asia through strategic partnerships, cultural diplomacy, and support for multilateral institutions.

In short, the column is not just a commentary—it’s a strategic roadmap. It’s worth reading if you’re interested in how Europe can recalibrate its global role through meaningful engagement with ASEAN. 

Victor Ângelo's opinion columns

 Victor Ângelo is a regular opinion columnist for Diário de Notícias, contributing thoughtful pieces on international relations, diplomacy, and global affairs. While the exact number of weekly readers his articles reach isn’t publicly disclosed, Diário de Notícias is one of Portugal’s most prominent newspapers, with a substantial national and international readership. Given the visibility of the platform and the relevance of his topics, it’s safe to say his work engages a wide and influential audience

Europe and ASEAN

 Europe must prioritize strengthening ties with ASEAN, recognizing its political and economic significance and the region's rapid development and future-oriented investments. This strategic focus is essential in the evolving global geopolitical landscape.

Indonesia's symbolic military presence: Indonesia's exclusive invitation to the Bastille Day parade in Paris highlights its importance as a major Muslim-majority country and a key ASEAN member, reflecting France's and the EU's recognition of ASEAN's growing influence.
ASEAN as a strategic partner: The EU should view ASEAN as a vital ally, given the region's economic progress and investment in sectors like healthcare and retirement living, which offer opportunities for European engagement.
Competition with China: Europe faces direct competition from China, which is deepening its economic and digital cooperation with ASEAN, despite maritime disputes involving some ASEAN members and China's expanding influence in the region.
EU as a balancing force: The EU can serve as a stabilizing influence between China’s growing dominance and the unpredictability of U.S. policy, emphasizing support for multilateralism and cultural exchange to overcome geopolitical and cultural barriers.

AI summary of my opinion piece in today's Diário de Notícia (Lisboa), 18 July 2025.

Humanism: what does it mean?

 Bring back a humanist approach

Modern global relations are increasingly marked by force and extremism, echoing past nationalist conflicts that marginalized citizens and prioritized elite interests. Despite progress made since World War II in human rights and international law, these values are now under threat, replaced by instability, selfishness, and disregard for cooperation. A renewed humanism, emphasizing solidarity, dignity, and respect for all life, including nature and future generations, is essential to address these challenges. This humanism also calls for ethical use of technology and education fostering critical and ethical thinking to ensure a balanced and sustainable future.

Resurgence of force and extremism: Current international and national politics show a return to aggressive nationalism and elite-driven conflicts, sidelining citizens' rights and dignity.

Erosion of post-war human rights progress: The advances made through the UN and international law in the last eight decades are increasingly ignored, leading to instability and selfish interests dominating global relations.

New humanism for the future: This approach extends beyond human freedom and progress to include respect for all living beings, environmental protection, ethical resource use, and responsible AI application.

Multilateral cooperation and ethical education: Strengthening international organizations, promoting universal ethical values, and fostering critical, ethical education are vital to prevent civilizational decline and ensure sustainable coexistence.

Might or right?

My professional travels through the world of multilateral organizations, and through dozens of countries with diverse political cultures, have taught me to look at international relations with caution. This does not mean that I do not believe in respecting the values ​​and principles approved over time, particularly since the signing of the United Nations Charter. This has happened with most states. But, contrary to what many people think, there have been many conflicts since 1945. It must have been a time of peace in Europe, except in the Balkans, but not in other parts of the world. Therefore, common sense recommends caution, as rivalries between countries and between big men persist. 

Prudence means, above all, two things: on the one hand, never underestimating the adversary and, on the other, unambiguously cultivating relations with allies, based on mutual interests and a common political vision.

It is a very serious mistake to consider that the enemy can be easily defeated. This was, in fact, Vladimir Putin's original miscalculation, as he thought it possible to destroy Ukrainian sovereignty in three days, when the gigantic military column he sent against Kiev would reach the Mariinsky Palace, the official residence of President Volodymyr Zelensky. The “Special Operation” was exactly that, in the Russian dictator’s view: a quick incursion, capable of subjugating the neighboring country in a matter of days. It wouldn't even be a war. He underestimated Ukraine, which three years later continues to resist the  aggression.

It is equally a mistake not to invest in a close and interdependent diplomatic relationship with the countries with which we maintain a defense alliance and strategic cooperation. And that consider, like us, that individual freedom and human rights are priority issues. This investment involves, in particular, a balance of forces between allies, in which each one brings something truly essential to the collective effort. And it must be based on a similar understanding of the international context. When there are imbalances or a different reading of the external risks, the alliance will end up transforming into subordination, or will end in rupture. Its continuity will be an illusion.

A pact between unequals ceases to work when a major crisis arises. This is the reality that Europe now faces. In terms of defense and cutting-edge technologies, especially in the areas of Artificial Intelligence and the collection of strategic information, Europe's fragility in relation to the USA is immeasurable.

Despite the political promises of the main European Heads of State and Government and the billions announced by the President of the European Commission, the gap between the two sides of the Atlantic is insurmountable in the coming years. And this will continue during Trump's term, which means that Europe will be at the mercy of the American president's decisions throughout this period.

The Europeans will thus pay for the imprudence of having considered, especially since the end of the Cold War, that Washington was a safe and reliable protective shield, and that its political class continued to maintain an unquestionable cultural and sentimental connection with the countries of the European continent. In today's America, that bond is a thing of the past.

With Trump in power, the context became even clearer. He and his followers see Europe as a consumer market with money and resources that are crucial to reinforcing US global hegemony: rare earths from Ukraine, minerals from Greenland, the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard, which is essential for controlling navigation in the Arctic, and the link between the North Atlantic and the Sea of ​​Japan.

Europe is seen as a captured continent, held hostage, destined to respond to the demands of the new America, the America that looks at the world with arrogance, except if it is China or Russia.

This is the context in which Europe finds itself. A Europe of Defence, prudent and capable of taking care of its own security, will indeed have to be built, something that will take at least ten to fifteen years to gain strength. It is, for now, a wish., an undefined plan.

I recognize that it is worth having plans of this kind. They provide encouragement, define an objective that can be shared and consolidate convergence. The generation that is now reaching political adulthood will have the challenge of transforming this demand into reality.

Do you trust Donald Trump?

 The international system must be protected and respected

 Victor Ângelo 

There can be no doubt: the international values ​​and standards, built over the last few decades, remain valid and must be fully respected. Political leaders and henchmen who fail to do so engage in illegal, often criminal, behavior and as such need to be confronted. The notion of a Western or less Western world, that doesn't count for anything. What matters are the rules that regulate the universal framework. When voting in the same direction as North Korea, something that should be unthinkable, the important thing is to remember which side of the conventions is right.

There were great moments that allowed these principles to advance and consolidate. It would be cowardice, or at least a mistake, not to remember them and not to insist on their scrupulous fulfillment. I will now mention a particularly clear list regarding the progressive regulation of international relations since the end of the Second World War – the United Nations Charter(1945), the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948), the dozens of decolonisation and national independence processes in the post-war years and decades, the Vietnam War, the Helsinki Final Act (1975), which defined the rules of cooperation and security in Europe, including in the USA and Canada, the Geneva Conventions and Additional Protocols of 1949 and 1977 on humanitarian issues and the laws of conflict, the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union (1991), the approval of the Rome Statute of 1998, which established the International Criminal Court (ICC), and also the Paris Agreement on Climate Change of 2015. Symptomatically, during all these years it has not been possible to reach a common platform on the fight against terrorism, a complex and highly politically sensitive issue.

Among political criminals there are unfortunately too many names that can be highlighted. This week, on the third anniversary of the start of Vladimir Putin's aggression against Ukraine, his criminal responsibility deserves special mention. Not forgetting, either, his most recent ally, Kim Jong-un, the villain who crushes the population of North Korea every day and threatens half the world and the other with his missiles. When we talk about these individuals and it is noted that the current US administration voted in the United Nations along these criminals, a terrifying question inevitably arises: what kind of world do they want to push us into?

The answer is anything but simple. But we must continue to insist on the normative dimension. International rules exist, and they must be followed. It is, however, worrying to see the G20 or the G7, and some dimensions of the United Nations system, which have functioned as pillars of international democracy and cooperation between peoples, being disrespected by traditional dictatorships together with the ruffians who are now emerging in the public square.

The international political architecture is at risk of collapsing. It is already in ruins in Palestine, for the dramatic reasons that are known. It could soon collapse during negotiations on Ukraine's sovereignty. It is practically impossible to believe in a just peace, when one thinks of the protagonists who have now entered the scene. They are on Putin's side, for incomprehensible reasons, perhaps personal, perhaps linked to past accounts, and with the – chimerical – pretext of obtaining a divorce between Russia and China. A part of the international defense system will also be at risk when the next NATO summit, scheduled for June 24-26, takes place in The Hague. And the most significant outcome will happen on September 22 and 23, when the General Assembly will meet to discuss the future of the United Nations. We will then see what proposals will be put on the table, at a time when the UN is a fragile target, disrespected by people like Netanyahu and little understood by the rich of this world.

I cannot fail to mention Emmanuel Macron's recent trip to Washington. He would have tried to give the Americans the impression that a good deal of the decision-making power is in his hands when it comes to the EU. I'm not sure he managed to convinced them, for three reasons. First, because Washington knows that Macron is struggling in France with a very serious national crisis. Macron is closer to the past than the future. Second, because the United Kingdom and Georgia Meloni, the Italian Prime Minister, have greater support in the White House. The new British ambassador to Washington, Peter Mandelson, a shrewd Labourite like his boss Tony Blair was years ago, will do everything he can to turn Donald Trump around. On the other hand, Trump has a special liking for Meloni. And she doesn't die of love for Macron. And third, and most crucially, because Trump hates the EU, as it became clear days after Macron's visit.