The middle of August

In my corner of the world, this is peak holiday time. This week end is a particularly busy one. Traffic, on roads and airports, is just pretty heavy. The outside world is kept outside the people´s minds. More than usually, that´s it. No time to think about the huge discrepancy between our own life styles and those prevalent in many parts of the planet. This a moment for beach and sun. Our thick skin is anxious to get a good tan. That´s the way we see things around here. 

Guinea-Bissau is down the rocks once more

Guinea-Bissau is again on the rocks. Last night the President decided to fire the government. This was an unjustified decision – and dramatically wrong from the constitutional and political perspectives – as this government had shown to be committed to bring the country out of two decades of a deep national crisis. This was actually a well performing government that had been commended by the donor group of countries at a recent meeting in Brussels.

I was in discussion today about the new situation over there. And my opinion was very clear. If you want to understand the President and his mistakes, please get in touch with his marabout. Like many powerful men in West Africa, the President is pretty insignificant in front of his marabout. The holy man dictates the President´s actions. 

The impossible job of leading a peacekeeping operation

The UN Secretary-General has just forced his Special Representative in the Central African Republic (CAR) to resign. The reason is directly linked to the rape of a young girl in Bangui by one or more peacekeepers. The Special Representative, who is also the head of the UN peacekeeping operation in the CAR, had to go, in the opinion of Ban Ki-moon, to show that the SG does not take these matters lightly.

Ban Ki-moon could not afford to display any shade of hesitancy.  There have been, in the past, some serious cases of gender-based violence in the country associated to the external troops. The most notorious case was perpetrated by the initial deployment of French soldiers and the UN was perceived as timid in dealing with it.

This sort of violence has been a recurrent problem in peacekeeping. At present there is no tolerance to it. And that´s the correct approach. But that does not prevent it from occurring.

That was again the case in the CAR. However, now that the Special Representative has been so summarily sacked I should add that he had tried his level best to prevent sexual violence from happening again. It´s fair to say it in a clear manner. It’s true that the ultimate responsibility in a mission comes always to the Special Representative´s level. But it also true that he cannot be behind each one of his soldiers. There are thousands of them in a mission like the one in the CAR. Each military contingent comes from a different country and the responsibility has to start with the national commanding officer at the head of each contingent.

The inspiration

I finally wrote the piece about conspiracy theories. And I should say thanks to President Mugabe. He is such a great source of inspiration when it comes to political plots, ambiguity and obscure intents. And the way he narrates his interpretations of reality is so entertaining. Unless you are one of his targets and also within reach…

Silly season

I have been asked to write about conspiracy theories. My reaction was pretty spontaneous. I looked at my editor with big eyes. Then I thought about the timing: the piece will be out next week, right by the middle of August…

It is therefore absolutely evident we are at the peak of the “silly season”…

Economic migrations

The immigration issue remains at the top of the EU agenda. Every day brings new flows of people into Italy, Greece and elsewhere.

 Many of these migrants come from countries in deep national crisis. From a legal point of view, they are bona fide candidates to be accepted as refugees.

Some others are coming for obvious economic reasons, as they try to run away from poverty and find jobs in Europe. This category should be confronted with greater hurdles to get through the legal process. But there is a growing view that poverty might also be a good reason to be recognised as a candidate to obtain a legal status, particularly if you have taken so many risks to get into the EU.

This is of course a matter that needs to be discussed. A common approach needs to be agreed as far as these economic migrants are concerned. It is urgent, it should be shared by all the Sates in the EU, and it should also be clearly explained to the European citizens.

The leaders cannot give the impression that there is no policy, that there is no clear idea about the issue. And that´s is, at present, the image that prevails.

Let´s say No to the atomic weaponry

Seventy years later, one can only hope that our political masters will be wise enough to not make use ever again on any type of atomic weapon. More. We should advocate for a ban of such armaments. That would be the ultimate test of wisdom and of a changing world.

Obama said that Netanyahu is wrong. Very correct, indeed!

Both on the internal and external fronts, President Obama has regained the initiative. Today´s comments in support of the nuclear deal with Iran are a clear demonstration of leadership. Including his remarks about Prime Minister Netanyahu´s campaign against the accord. In a diplomatic manner the US President did acknowledge Netanyahu´s strong position but concluded by saying very clearly that the Prime Minister “is wrong”.

And indeed, he is stubbornly wrong. And he knows it, I suspect. He keeps however repeating what he has been saying about the Iran agreement because he knows that internally, in Israel, that gives him a chance to score points. As it is well known, all statements about external politics are above all for domestic political gain. 

Intermezzo

The first half of August is peak holiday time in our part of Europe. It´s beach time, for many. Even key politicians are walking in their shorts and do not want to be caught by reality. Issues like the one in Calais with the immigrants or question marks about Turkey´s air campaigns in Syria and Iraq, even Greece and its deep economic impasse, are to be kept outside the main screens. During this intermission, it is the temperature of the sea water that matters. And the excellence of a good glass of white wine. The rest will have to wait until the second half of the month. 

Supporting Obama´s policy on Climate Change

I listened to President Obama´s public presentation of the US Climate Change Plan and I was impressed. It was a very convincing speech about a major policy decision that is vital for the world´s common fight for the conservation of our planet. I urge the media and the opinion makers to underline the key measures of this new plan, and to support it. Climate change is indeed a critical issue that needs to be tackled very seriously by the US, the industrialised nations and China, the latter above all. 

The Calais problem calls for an immediate political response

Beyond the dreadful human dimensions, which are quiet visible as one watches the living conditions in the “Jungle Camp”, as the site is called, the Calais immigration crisis has a high economic cost and a strategic political impact.

On the economic side, one should keep in mind the importance of the Calais corridor. It is a vital exchange line between the UK and the European Continent. Last year, about 2.5 million vehicles crossed the Channel carrying goods back and forth. The current situation is causing a colossal trade loss to the British economy: about £ 250 million a day. This is huge figure at a time when economic recovery is still very fragile. Besides that, it is disrupting local movements of people and goods on both sides of the Channel.

At the political level, the crisis is damaging. It is not just a bloody nose on the British or French faces. It basically sends the message that Paris and London have no plan to deal with the situation. Sniffer dogs and additional fences are not the most effective responses. They just leave the issue unresolved. It writes on both political establishments a couple of very nasty words: incompetence and irresoluteness. And, in many ways, both governments give the impression that there is little coordination between them, besides some joint photo opportunities.

The problem will not fade away. It calls for decisive measures. The politicians must take their responsibilities and lead the way.

But they are not doing it. Thus, let me add a suggestion.

I see only one way forward: to legalise what is at present unlawful. In this case, both governments would implement a major police operation and round up the immigrants, all of them – nobody knows how many they are, but the accepted figure comes to around 3,000. Then, the authorities would take them to processing centres, to identify and summarily check their backgrounds. The following stage would be to give the vast majority of them permit papers and allow them to settle in. The UK would take the greater number and other countries would accept the balance. This option would show resoluteness combined with pragmatism and attention to social considerations and the economic consequences of the status quo. It should be combined with additional security measures aimed at slowing down future arrivals in the region. More specifically, the authorities would put across very clear messages stating that there is no way the illegal passage would be allowed. Those attempting to do it could be arrested and swiftly deported.

I have also looked at other options. But the above one stands out as the only sensible approach at this stage. Everything else is either to be blind to a major issue of great complexity or an attempt to transfer the problem to the neighbour.