Trump and the politics of resentment

These are strange times. That´s why someone like Donal Trump is now in the centre of the stage. And then we find ourselves spending hours on him and his theatrics.

That´s what many of us did yesterday, as he was delivering his “major speech” on foreign policy. After the delivery, we all decided to write about it. Basically, to state that his views are naïve, simplistic, unaware of the complexities of state relations and so on. Fine.

But we also forgot that he was not speaking to us. His audience was the down-to-earth white American that feels the world of today is not responding to his or her preoccupations. Those who believe America is losing influence, international prestige and job opportunities.

I am afraid they might have liked his acting, the words, the conviction and the simplicity that comes from a very effective, but empty slogan, “America first”.

Trump might not win the presidential contest. But he is certainly contributing to harden the views and the resentments of those in the US that believe they are left behind by the elites. That will have some very serious long term consequences. 

Obama and the four EU leaders: a comment

President Obama, on the last day of his visit to Germany, met with Angela Markel, David Cameron, François Hollande and Matteo Renzi. In my opinion, he should have invited Donald Tusk as well. This would have added strength to his speeches about the EU´s relevance. Words are important and the President said the right ones. But he missed the opportunity to show he means business when supporting Europe´s unity.

The meeting lasted two hours. Most of the time was spent on the situation in Syria, including the positions that should be taken regarding the Geneva negotiating process, which is now out of the rails, and the fight against the Islamic State terrorists. On the latter, it is clear the IS has been losing ground. There is less money available, less volunteer fighters, and greater military pressure on them. The additional deployment of 250 US Special Forces, announced moments before the meeting by Obama, is also a significant development in combatting the terrorists. I hope the Germans in particular will also increase their contribution to the ground operations.

The rest of the meeting focussed on Libya. Italy and the UK are most likely to intensify their support to the recognised Libyan Prime Minister. And in addition, we should see more naval patrols off the Libyan coast soon. There are some differences of opinion about the nature of such maritime task force: should it be a NATO-led force or should it be an expansion of the current EU-sponsored naval presence? In any case, the maritime effort should be a supporting one to the actions on the ground inside Libya. The priority is on land and that means stabilising the situation in that North African country.

More about Obama in the UK debate

President Obama´s views about the Brexit are most welcome. He is very right when he says that the UK is stronger if it remains within the EU. Economically stronger and politically more influential. His words gave a tremendous boost to those who are against the exit. But the supporters of Remain have now to translate Obama´s words into their own way of speaking, give them a British accent and make use of them in a wise way. If not, those words will be lost and in some cases, they might even generate the opposite reaction. They should also be very clear in their minds that the current mood in Europe, and in particular in the UK, is not very positive about European matters. 

Turkey and the EU visa question

Turkey is putting a lot of pressure on the Europeans once more. Time is about the visa issue. They want the EU to cancel the visa requirement for Turkish travellers as of 1 July 2016. They say this measure is part of the agreement they have signed with the EU on the control of immigrant flows. Right. But they should also add that there are some objective criteria the Turkish government has to meet for the visa exemption to be implemented. Without that there is no way the Europeans can approve the exemption.

In the meantime, the French daily Le Figaro has polled its readers about the matter. Over 41 thousand people have responded. And 74% said the EU should not grant the visa exemption just as a compensation for the Turkish cooperation on immigration management. That´s a very clear indication of the feeling among the European citizens.

Obama´s strong views on the UK in the EU

President Obama´s remarks about Britain the EU are legitimate. The US is the leading ally of Europe and as such its leader should feel free to express his views about the future of Europe. It´s true that such an opinion can influence the debate in the UK. And it should, by the way.

Obama´s words were well balanced, firm but frank. The UK would be weaker and smaller in the world stage without its European link. The UK would lose by leaving. But besides its own interest, the country should also consider it has a major duty to contribute to the unity of Europe. It´s not just what the British gain or lose. It is also their contribution to a stronger Europe that is at stake. This side of the equation has been neglected so far. It is however a powerful moral argument. 

The EU against Google: prudence, please

The European Commission´s case against Google does not sound entirely right. Google is an extremely innovative high tech company and that has allowed it to gain a greater share of the mobile devices market. Its operating systems are indeed all over the place. It means that Google is winning the competition race. But that does not prevent other manufacturers from entering the market. Some are already around and have managed to attract consumers’ attention.

Any antitrust action taken by the Commission needs to take into account the realities of market forces, particularly in a sector that requires huge investments in terms of development and research. It cannot be just a bureaucratic approach to commercial and engineering successes. In addition, it shouldn´t give room for any interpretation that could be read as disguised hostility towards large American multinational companies. 

Brazil´s democracy

The Brazilian politics are again in a mess. And beyond the surface, the key issue is related to widespread corruption among the different layers of the country´s political class. Dynasties of politicians just try to take advantage of public office. For them, politics is about personal gain, more than anything else.

Now, the impeachment process of President Dilma Rousseff adds extra fuel to an ongoing crisis. Dilma has made some important political mistakes and has lost popular support. Part of those faux pas are related to corruption as well. She has tolerated illegal actions carried out by some of those close to her inner circle. But she has above all come to personify another feature of the Brazilian politics: ineptitude.

Incompetence cannot be a reason to impeach a president. If that was the case, many in many parts of the world would be kicked out of office well before the end of their mandates.

It might however happen in today´s Brazil. It seems too late for Dilma to be able to stop the slide.

If it happens, one should regret it. But, at the same time, one could recognise the strength of the constitutional set up as the institutional processes are allowed to follow their course in Brazil. We cannot say the same about other countries in Brazil´s neighbourhood. Brazil might be in the middle of a political carnival. But its democracy is stronger than many around it. 

Back from India

I am just back from a journey through Rajasthan combined with a short visit to Delhi. This was my second trip to India. The first one took place in a different era, some nineteen years ago. Today´s India is a much better place, very dynamic and deeply optimistic about its future. Beyond that it remains a fascinating place. And it is certainly an extraordinary friendly place for people coming from my part of the world. 

All that makes a trip to India something bigger than just a tourist´s undertaking. If one looks at it with a deeper insight, it is in many ways a spiritual journey. And a learning one as well, as long as we want to keep our eyes open and see beyond the limits of our own prejudices.