INF and the UN

President Trump’s decision to pull out of the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) is as much about Russia – the other country signatory of the Treaty – as it is about China and its build-up of cruise missiles. Russia has been violating the INF since 2012. And China is investing heavily on new types of missiles capable of carrying nuclear heads. China is actually becoming a major military adversary of the US. And that is done in close coordination with Russia. Both Presidents – Xi and Putin – are consulting and have the same goal: to increase, in their geopolitical areas of influence, their countries’ capacity to confront the US and its allies. This is certainly a very dangerous strategy. The US will respond by augmenting their investment in nuclear capabilities. That means a serious arms race in a field that is particularly destructive and could bring mayhem to Europe and some parts of Asia.

One should be truly worried.

The UN could take the initiative to open a serious process of confidence building in the matters of nuclear armament. There is even a department within the Secretariat in New York that is mandated to deal with this type of matters. But the UN seems unable to move in such a critical area. Or, inaction and silence cannot be the right course of action at this very risky moment.

Putin´s words

Vladimir Putin´s speech on weapons and new missile systems, including the repeated reference to nuclear means, cannot be taken lightly. The Russian President is very strategic when it comes to his public presentations. And yesterday he was clear. He sees the West as deeply hostile to Russia and engaged in a campaign against Putin himself. He believes in what he says, I would add. And he wants us to know he is ready to respond.

We might disagree with his assessment of the West´s intentions. But we must be prepared for all kinds of confrontations. Particularly against cyber-attacks, the most immediate threat coming from his side. He is investing heavily on those attacks. And he is targeting the countries that matter. The big ones. That´s why we witnessed a major cyberattack against Germany in the last two days.

The useful idiot

In the end, Kim Jong-un is more than just a dangerous loony, he is a useful idiot. His gimmicks have become an impeccable justification for a much deeper involvement of the US military in the region. The US pivot to Northeast Asia, initiated a year or so ago, is now given a new impetus.

Kim’s follies have also given a chance to the new government in Japan to put together an extraordinary show of force in Tokyo. This masterly move has now caught the attention of the citizens, taking them away from other concerns related to the poor performance of the Japanese economy or the nuclear meltdown at Fukushima.

 And the dangerous fool will end up by contributing to an acceleration of the arms race in a region where China, South Korea and Japan, in particular, are major military competitors.

It’s indeed time to stop this fellow.