The link between oil and food prices

A reference report on Cyber Security

The Commons Defence Committee of the UK's Parliament just released its report on Defence and Cyber-Security. It is a document that should be read carefully. 

In the report it is said the cyber threat to UK security could evolve at "almost unimaginable speed". The Committee questions whether the Government has the capacity to deal with it.

It is available at the following sites:

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmselect/cmdfence/106/106.pdf

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmselect/cmdfence/106/106vw.pdf

Europe without Defence

The debate at Madariaga Foundation in Brussels today was about the “American Disengagement” from Europe’s defence.  It attracted a large crowd. Obviously, there is a clientele for defence issues in Brussels, among the active and retired bureaucrats of the different institutions, universities and think tanks, embassies, and the other usual suspects.

It was interesting to notice that this type of crowd tend to forget the citizens, the street’s opinions. There was no reference, for instance, to the fact that the military establishments in all the European countries have lost a critical war: the people’s support. The public opinion is no longer with them, does not understand the role of the armed forces in today’s Europe. This has led to serious budgetary cuts all over the Continent. In some big countries, such as Italy and Spain, the resource allocation to defence is today 0.84% and 0.65% of GDP respectively, instead of at least 2%.  

Europe and Africa

Europe –Africa: From Indifference to Interdependence[1]

Victor Angelo

Introduction

Examining the future of the relations between Europe (EU) and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), I can foresee a clear trend of mutual growing indifference, as if both regions were moving apart and becoming less interested in building a privileged partnership.

The current generation of European leaders is no longer emotionally connected with Africa. It is a depart from the attitudes of past generations, who had kept a close interest in Africa, through colonial ties and related business interests. The historical links appear now lost in the vague memories of the past. Today, the empirical observation leads to the conclusion that there is lack of understanding on the importance of co-operating with SSA. This is especially evident at present with the leaders ‘attention focused on the EU’s internal crisis, including its own new poor, the developments in the immediate neighbourhood of North Africa and Middle East and the economic and political threats China’s expansion poses.

In the current context of the international relations, Africa is perceived by many European opinion-makers at best as a distant and modest player, with little relevance to the future of Europe. For others, the stereotype is clear: Africa spells poverty, uncertainty and conflict, and undemocratic regimes. These views are not new, of course. What is new is the leverage they seem to have gained on decision making.

If one observes the relationship from an African perspective, one notices that recent studies and well publicised schools of thought question the way the EU provides development assistance, as being donor driven, arrogant and too conditional. Besides, some African political and academic personalities have extensively criticised the role of aid, as creating dependency, being ineffective and favouring the elites in the recipient countries. In addition, several political leaders throughout the Continent have decided to look towards China, India and other non-traditional partners of Africa, such as Qatar and other Gulf States, and entice new economic investments and different forms of development aid from those countries.

As a result, the following questions could be raised, from the European perspective:

·         Is it in the strategic interest of Europe to ignore the formidable challenges – high impact population dynamics, human insecurity and poor governance – that Africa will face in next decades?  And, looking at the other side of the question, is it good strategy to disregard the huge potential Africa possesses?

·         What should be the priorities for a renewed partnership between Europe and Africa? More specifically, how relevant are the SSA’s demographic challenges in the shaping of a new development co-operation agenda? The subsidiary question would be: What efforts must be made to regain the political initiative in the EU in order to bring Africa back to the top of the development agenda?

·         Who sets the agenda? Who speaks on behalf of the African populations?

Key future African challenges

Sub-Saharan Africa’s population is growing very fast. From less than a billion today, SSA will be home to close to 2 billion people by 2050. This rate of population growth is a major challenge with a tremendous, multidimensional impact in the Continent and globally. By mid-century, there will be in average two Africans out of nine human beings and almost three times more Africans than Europeans.

The most immediate demographic challenge, that needs to be addressed today, is how to help Africa to stabilise its overall population at the level of two billion. If we do not act now, the population in SSA will continue to grow beyond 2050, well above the level that could be considered as sustainable. For that, the demographic transition, as technically defined by the demographers, needs to be accelerated through expanded free access to contraception and related health services, girls’ education and women’s political empowerment.  Currently less than 20% of African women use modern contraceptive methods, whilst in Latin America and Asia the prevalence rate is well over 60% in average. But evidence as shown that access to family planning services and proactive population policies are incomplete and lack effectiveness if they are not accompanied by widespread campaigns to get girls to schools. Furthermore, for both issues – contraceptive access and girl’s education - to get high on the national priorities, more women need to occupy positions of political authority, as this type of development agenda is only genuinely implemented if driven by women leaders. I would hasten to add here that men’s adherence is critical for the demographic transition and the adoption of modern family life, but the change only takes place if women are truly empowered and in a position to fight for their rights.

The rapid population growth outpaces Africa’s capacity to produce its own food. Food insecurity is widespread. SSA is the region of the world with the highest rate of undernourishment: it is estimated that at least 30% of Africa’s population suffers from chronic hunger and malnutrition. As we look into the coming decades, we can forecast more widespread food insecurity that could be further aggravated by Africa’s lack of financial resources to pay for imported food combined with greater scarcity of the international supply of grains, as the consumption of cereals augments in other parts of the world, including in China, India and the Arab world. The investment in agriculture – including some kind of green revolution adapted to the region’s conditions and consumption habits – is a priority. It has however to take into account that there is water insecurity in some parts of the Continent, as there is also an expansion of the arid lands and desertification. The agricultural revolution will have to take all these factors into account and be based on seeds and technologies that will have little water demands, short production cycles and be pest resistant.

There will be in addition very serious competition for vital natural resources, such as land, rangeland, water, firewood and other forest related supplies, as well as minerals. In some cases, this competition will take violent forms, including disputes between countries, in-country armed rebellions, civil conflicts, and ethnic strife.  In other cases, it will open the door for undemocratic, corrupt governments, which will try to remain in power by force and through favouring their ethnic base’s access to scarce resources against the interests of the rest of the population.

Urbanization is the other side of the population growth coin. SSA’s cities will expand fast and chaotically. In the next decades many more urban centres like today’s Lagos and Kinshasa will spread all over Africa. These will be unmanageable, sprawling conurbations, with few job opportunities, short on social infrastructure and blind on humanity. Urban violence could easily become a trademark of the new megalopolis. Furthermore, for many young people, especially for the young men, the big city will be a temporary stop before joining the emigration flow, as they will be looking for opportunities to settle and find a better life outside the Continent. Indeed, one can foresee that the current youth unemployment rates – which can be estimated at 40% and in some cases can be as high as 2/3 of the total population under the age of 35 years (the UNDP estimate of 28% is too conservative and is more inspired by a politically correct approach than by data) – will continue to prevail in the future.

The above described conundrums are not inspired by either a pessimistic or a fatalist view of the future. They represent key issues, based on real facts. They come out of any serious projection of the present trends into the foreseeable future. For Europe, they represent two major challenges. One is related to our system of ethics: how can we contribute to mitigate and respond to the critical harsh demands that many in SSA will be facing? As fellow human beings and as a Continent that has benefitted for very long from African resources and an unequal relationship, we cannot ignore the plight of those living next door and to whom we have been linked by history.  The second challenge is related to our own stability and security. It will be a serious mistake full of dramatic consequences to believe that Europe can raise enough barriers and frontiers that would isolate it from the problems experienced by people in desperation and who would look at our region as a possible destination for their exodus.

There is however an optimistic side to the future of SSA. The region offers vast investment opportunities, in terms of resources, and labour, with high rates of return. It is also a growing market for many goods and services. Private sector expansion is an indispensable avenue to a better future. Public development assistance policies have to create space and conditions for the entrepreneurs. Private sector co-operation is a must. Investors should be guided by European institutions, as well as by their bilateral co-operation agencies, and encouraged to look south, and partner with potential counterparts in SSA. 

The priorities of a renewed development co-operation agenda

Seen from the European side of the equation, the first priority should focus on changing the mind-set of the EU leaders. They have to look at Africa as a moral engagement and also as a Continent with huge risks and opportunities. The decisive objective is to bring Africa back to Europe’s priority list of external partners. The concept of neighbourhood has to include Africa, because of vicinity and impact, as well as our historical ties with that Continent.     

Firstly, it is a question of moral values. International relations and aid assistance have to be based in ethic principles, such as solidarity, promotion of people’s dignity and human rights, as well as protecting lives. Better off Europe has the duty to assist Africa’s disenfranchised populations. Secondly, it is a matter of Europe’s interest.  Our security is linked to human security in SSA. Additionally, Africa’s development and democratic stability could make the region a major economic partner of ours. The challenge is to cooperate with Africa to turn this potential into reality.

For the EU leaders to change their approach it is necessary to mobilise the public opinion. Members of national parliaments, as well as MEPs sitting in Brussels, are called to play a critical role in terms of changing the perceptions and the substance of the debate. Thereafter, the new policies would follow. The European Parliamentary Forum on Population and Development is a major step in the right direction. It needs, however, to have a comprehensive view of the issues, linked to strategic goals and human security concerns. It also requires well-defined priorities and a close link with academic and media circles as well as with key NGOs.

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) remain the indispensable frame of reference for development co-operation. The key challenges identified in the previous section of this paper are very much in line with the Goals. They should constitute the starting points when it comes to defining the aid agenda.  In view of the specific context of SSA, particular attention needs to be given to maternal health, gender equality, and hunger. HIV is also a major issue: annually, over 70% of HIV-related deaths occur in SSA.  Furthermore, the plight of urban youth deserves exceptional attention and resources. Recent experience has shown that youth employment programmes lack substance, appropriate expertise and measurable results. They are also very much oblivious of the political dimensions: lack of democratic access to power by young people in societies where the young are the majority but the political control is kept by older politicians. Empirical evidence has shown that these old men are by and large disconnected from the aspirations of the younger generations.

International migrations are not the solution to the employment issue. It is true that we live in a more globalised world and that many will move to foreign lands in search of job opportunities. But there are limitations to these movements. Many of those who have migrated from Africa to Europe are the best educated. Africa’s future needs their talent, skills and know-how. It cannot continue to lose valuable human resources.  Also, there is a limit to the number of foreign persons Europe can absorb without compromising its own social stability. This is a very sensitive issue but it cannot be minimized: it requires more research about impact and absorptive capacities of European societies and a better understanding of its long term consequences. In the meantime, aid programmes should aim at creating the conditions for young people to be able to settle in their own countries and lead meaningful lives where their roots belong.

In addition to official aid programmes and strategic issues related to peace and security, the renewed partnership between Europe and SSA has to be built on shared economic interests. The facilitation of private sector investments should be encouraged, to expand mutual beneficial ventures, long term commercial and productive projects, and ensure capital protection, corporate social responsibility and resource sustainability.

Who sets the agenda?

The partnership between Europe and SSA has to result from a balanced dialogue between the two sides. Money cannot dictate the priorities. Europe should not set the agenda. The donor-recipient relationship should be something of the past. Only a balanced approach is acceptable in today’s circumstances.

There is a tendency within the EU to think that a number of African political leaders do not represent the interests and aspirations of their own populations. This view is very much related to considering Africa as a land of poor governance and unrepresentative politicians. The same people also see many of the African intellectuals as distant from the masses, disconnected from their roots, and unable or unwilling to influence the political elites. They therefore conclude that the agenda should be decided in Brussels and other European capitals. They also tend to blindly consider the NGO community has more genuine interlocutors. The proliferation of NGOs is, in many ways, an unintended consequence of this approach. Whilst recognising the importance of voluntary and community based worked, one should also consider that many African NGOs have little or no impact on people’s lives and a number of them are simply as unconnected as many other players.

Europe has to engage the existing leaders and maintain with them a credible, robust and frank dialogue. This is the only way we can build an effective partnership and, if necessary, contribute to the democratization of political life in Africa and a new type of relationship. At the same time, Europe should avoid show off meetings, formal gatherings void of substantive exchanges, as it is often the case between the two Commissions: the European and the African.  And, above all, Europe should abstain from double standard approaches towards African leaders and their governance systems. Values and principles are the same, for friends and foes alike.

13 Dec. 2012

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[1] Communication delivered to the International Conference “Building the Africa-Europe partnership: What Next?”- Lisbon, Fundacao Calouste Gulbenkian, 13-14 December 2012 

Cameron, the Pyrrhic Obstructor

The British Prime Minister looked very tense in today's interview to the BBC. The image he projects is that of someone who is losing control of his life. As a politician, he needs to find a scapegoat and focus the voters' attention on an illusion, on a red cape, not on the real problems his government is facing. Cameron is convinced that the EU is the easiest red herring he can find at this stage. He spent quite a bit of his TV time explaining he will not accept any further strengthening of the Euro zone unless Brussels agrees to repatriate "powers" they have taken away from Britain.

Cameron forgets a couple of things. For Germany and other countries the survival of the Euro is the top priority and they will take the measures they deem appropriate, with or without Britain. Secondly, the PM's position encourages those within his party that would like to see the UK out of Europe. They might gain so much momentum that Cameron will not be able to stop them and might even be forced to resign. Thirdly, any reference to a loser link between the UK and the EU sends a very strong signal to investors: UK is not the right place to operate from, if one is interested in expanding one's presence in Europe.

It is not easy to combine immaturity with leadership of a great country such as the UK.  

The professor of futilities

Le Monde published yesterday several hundred words written by a university professor who is also the chairman of the French Cercle des Economistes. The text was supposed to make suggestions about youth employment promotion in a context of crisis, especially taking into account that Mr Hollande's government will have to cut public expenditure by Euro 60 billion in the next five years.

I read it twice and came to the conclusion that this economist and most of the academics are off mark. They can't make any valid set of proposals. The reason is very simple: they remain inside the box, they do not want to antagonise the established political establishment. They have not yet realised that the European world is changing fast and that many young people have not been prepared by the education systems to navigate in a different type of context. 

Barroso spends time in Portugal

Barroso delivered a very interesting speech yesterday in Lisbon. The link to the Portuguese language version of it is the folloowing:

http://ec.europa.eu/portugal/comissao/destaques/20130104_discurso_presidente_fund_champalimaud_pt.htm

Addressing the annual "Diplomatic Seminar", the EU Commission President discussed a number of "erroneous" myths about Europe. In his opinion, the truth is: 1-The current crisis did not start in Europe; 2- Europe is not the sick region of the world; 3- The Euro (currency) is not the cause of the crisis; 4- The EU institutions did provide proposals and ideas to overcome the crisis; 5- There has been solidarity among the European states; 6- Austerity is needed where there is a serious deficit of public accounts.

His participation in the seminar carried a lot of political meaning in a highly politicized environment such as the one prevailing now in Portugal. It shows he is particularly interested in being perceived as a critical national political actor at a time of uncertainty about the future of the current government. He would like to be seen as   a potential "saviour"...Furthermore, his presence side by side with the Foreign Minister, who is not fully aligned with the policies of Prime Minister Passos Coelho, has been considered as giving leverage to minority voices within the government. Particularly if one takes into account that he said that adjustment programmes should be implemented with common sense, not just with determination, and be accompanied by dialogue among all the social actors and good communication packages...These are things that the government has been accused of not paying enough attention to. Now, Barroso seems to have joined the band wagon...

Passos Coelho would certainly have preferred to see the EU President in Brussels. Or the man is back in Lisbon next week again. For another keynote speech.victorangeloblogs.sapo.pt

Les drones

The circus is still on break

Brussels remains a quiet city today. The European bureaucrats, the extravagant members of the European parliament, the lobbyists, the hacks and other media types, even the spooks, and the numerous stagiaires that keep many talk shops open, everybody is still out of town, trying to get used to the new year.

I like it. The only people who complain are the taxi drivers, the bar and restaurant owners in the European district, and a few girls and boys here and there. 

Prejudices

Copyright V.Angelo

Different approaches are welcome as long as they sustain a common project. 

We cannot fall into the trap that sees some Europeans as just part of the decoration and little less. Some people in Brussels and in some Northern capitals are again tempted to look at nations from that perspective. We all know that arrogance and contempt have filled the history of Europe with wars and pain.