Congratulations to all Kenyans

Kenya’s presidential results have now been confirmed. And one should note the maturity shown this time by the political elite, particularly by Raila Odinga, who challenged the results through the courts and has now accepted the final verdict. This is a sea change compared with the tragic events that occurred after the last elections in 2007. It is another demonstration that many countries in Africa are moving in the right direction. 

Please tell Kim Jong-un the truth

Kim Jong-un is a young man. When he took over as leader of North Korea he had an opportunity to make history. He could have initiated a process that would bring the North and the South together. As a young fellow, with a long political future in front of him, this would have been the smart approach, as there is no other way out of the permanent crisis and poverty his country experiences.

He seems now to have missed the boat. For whatever reasons –lack of political sense of the realities, poor strategic advice, pressure from the regime elites, particularly from the military –he has opted for a very serious escalation of the war rhetoric. Some analysts claim this is the usual bluff, a recurrent feature in the Pyongyang politics. I am afraid it is more than that. He and his generals might have managed to be fooled by their own bombastic nonsense. They might have fallen victims of their own delusion.

The fact of the matter is that at present we have a very dangerous situation developing in the Korean Peninsula. If by any chance, Kim decides to launch any attack –in the understanding that he has no means to reach US territory –he and his regime could end up by paying a very high price for the folly.

I hope someone is getting ready to tell Kim Jong-un the truth.  Urgently. 

The African Ellipse of Instability

I was asked by the media a number of questions about the recent developments in the Central African Republic (CAR). I have advised them to read the research paper I published last year, under the sponsorship of NUPI – the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs –about the instability in that region of Africa. I mentioned, in particular, the “ellipse of instability”, an expression I coined to describe the security risks that exist in a vast no-man’s land along the borders of Chad, Sudan, CAR, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The paper is available at the following link:

http://english.nupi.no/content/download/308614/1068211/version/1/file/NUPI+Report-SIP-7-Angelo-McGuinness.pdf

I suggest the reader to have a look at it.

EU silence

The EU top leaders have now adopted silence as public information technique. They let the sidekicks take the micro and express what they do not dare to say. 

South African casualties in the Central African Republic

In an exchange with a South African analyst, I mentioned that I was very sad and very surprised by the fact that the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) had lost 13 men out of 200 in the recent clashes with the Séléka rebels in the Central African Republic (CAR). That’s an awful lot of casualties. In particular, if one considers that on the other side, on the insurgent side, we had a ragtag bunch of armed men, poorly equipped, chaotically led and badly prepared to fight. I suggested that this SANDF loss needs to be properly reviewed by the authorities in Pretoria and a number of hard lessons extracted. 

The finance moralist is a failed politician

Jeroen Dijsselbloem might not know where Bangui is located. Most likely, he had also no idea up to recently where Nicosia is. But like the Séléka rebels in the Central African Republic, he managed today to create chaos and uncertainty. His interview with Reuters and the Financial Times shows that he has the same level of political tact and experience as the leaders of Séléka. And he managed to do what the CAR rebels are very good at: to divide what should be united. They split the country along ethnic lines, a tradition in that part of the world. Djisselbloem split Europe, separating the good people of the parsimonious North from the prodigal boys from the South. And undermining bank recovery in the lands of such bad boys.

Then, later in the day, maybe after a serious caning by Angela, the man said that his words about the Cyprus programme being a template for future financial crisis were not meant to mean what they indeed mean, as each country situation is a special case.

He is the one that could be considered a special case.

Maybe the UN – at a time when its presence in Bangui is being seriously challenged –should consider sending him as an envoy to CAR. The country is at least a safe place for the markets as there is no Reuters or Financial Times correspondent around. 

CAR and its rebels

François Bozizé, who has been the President of the Central African Republic (CAR) for the last ten years, has now fled out of the country. He just crossed the Oubangui River and found himself on the DRC bank, just opposite Bangui. From here to the capital of DRC, Kinshasa, is a very long, tough trek.

The rebels from Séléka are now in control. They are basically young men from the North-eastern regions of the country, many of them with a Muslim background. But this not a religious inspired rebellion. It is once more ethnicity and regionalism taking hold in a country that has never been able to find the right balance between its different ethnic groups.

The UN has a number of personnel on the ground. Many of them are political officers. This presence is related to the fact that the UN member states have decided, some seven years ago, to include CAR in the priority list for peace building efforts. I sincerely believe that the new developments would require the UN Security Council to think hard about the future of the UN mission in CAR. 

Central African Republic

I have been in touch with Bangui throughout the day. The rebels are again on the move and very close to the capital. There have been some very serious exchanges of fire between them and the South African soldiers, who are in the country to provide assistance to regular army of President Bozizé.

The Central African Republic (CAR) is once more in turmoil. The countries of the region have tried to assist, through the deployment of interposition forces, but with no real success. The South African presence is a bit of an oddity. They have been in and out of CAR in the last few years, to support the regime. As such, they cannot act as bridge between the parties in conflict. The French have troops on the ground. However, their mission is limited to protecting their citizens and the embassy premises.

The UN has also a political office in the country. For the time being, I have decided, as a former senior UN staff, not to comment on UN affairs. Not even today, when the situation in CAR seems to turn again towards a new level of civil war.

What’s next?

Wild Friday nights

Have you driven on Friday evening in some of central districts of Brussels? I rarely do it. I did it tonight. Again, what an experience! A good number of drivers seem to become crazy as we get beyond 08:00 pm.  Maybe it is just that the crazed got their permission to go out and wild. The fact of the matter is that many of those on the city’s avenues on a Friday night drive in a ferocious way. I am told the Police have very little money left for traffic controls – they say they have no real money to pay for the extra hours the officers would be required to perform. Whatever small change is left in the Police budget is used for some infrequent speed checking.  It is the easy way out, as many governments chose to do. 

New leaders are required

The question today is a very painful one: who is in charge of the EU? Indeed, it is sad to note that the European machinery is without a leader, at a time of great confusion and very serious risks for the continuity of the community project. We have not heard a single word from Van Rompuy about the Cypriot debacle. Barroso is travelling in Russia and then goes further east, to Mongolia, but nobody knows what he is recommending. Not even a single word of concern, when many of those who care about the future of Europe feel things are getting tremendously out of hand.

At the national level, Hollande gives the impression he has not been told about Cyprus. Merkel is also silent, which might actually be a better option in her case. And all the others, in the different capitals, are just hiding behind their national borders. Small people are very well known to be fond of the saying “wait and see”…

This crisis calls for a new type of leadership. For people whose voices are clear and able to spell out the direction things should take. For people that are not afraid to say that the way we are now moving brings us to the past. And the past of Europe was pretty ugly.