Repeating ourselves about Zimbabwe

Today I have to go back to the Zimbabwe issue.

After serving in the country for four years, I left Harare at the end of 2004. Now, almost nine years later, and on the eve of the presidential elections, I listen to the political discourse and see that the themes and the worries are exactly the same. 

But not only on the Mugabe and Tsvangirai camps.

SADC, the association of Southern African States, the EU and others in the international community keep saying today what they were already telling us nine or more years ago: this time, we need proper elections, this time we will not accept fraud, this time it has to be different.

And we can only respond what we have said many times in the past: poor Zimbabwe!

Elections Zimbabwean style

On 31 July Zimbabweans will be offered a new chance of being robbed. Indeed, on that day presidential elections will take place. And the Electoral Commission, appointed by good old Robert and loyal to the regime interests, will do again what they have done in 2002, 2005 and 2008: make sure that the Mugabe camp steals the elections. The Electoral Commissioners are very expert at that job. I have observed and also implemented many elections in Africa and elsewhere. I have never seen an institutional machinery so smart as the one in Zimbabwe that can organise chaos, put in place rules and legal obstacles, and create all conditions for the old man to be “elected” in a way that looks good enough.

I would love to be wrong this time. 

Summer time

As we come closer to early August, leaders in my part of the world are more concerned by the summer break than by anything else. Brussels is empty at this time of the year and the same happens in other EU capitals. Even at the UN in New York, it is time for slow motion. I remember well trying to sort out things in August and getting only third and fourth line staffs on the other side of the UN headquarters table.

But do crises take a break? 

The Security Council has to look at the Egyptian crisis soonest

I wrote yesterday’s post hours before the new dramatic developments in Egypt. At the end of my writing, I said “everything else is too tragic to contemplate”.

Today, we have to contemplate it. Many people – the exact figure remains unclear – were shot at when demonstrating in the streets of Cairo. The bullets came from the armed forces and the police side. In some cases, there was a deliberate intention to kill. Sniper fire is about “executing” people. And snipers are very extensively trained sharpshooters that can only be found, in a country like Egypt, within the official security apparatus.

It is time for the international community to come in and offer the bridges and platforms for dialogue that the Egyptians themselves might not be able to construct. Indeed, the Egyptian society seems too divided to be able to sit together on their own and agree together on a way out of the deep crisis and on their future. Key members of Security Council should step in now. The pressure for them to take up their international responsibility should come from all quarters. Without that pressure from the international public opinion, those countries will not act. They will continue to pretend that they are very busy elsewhere and that Egypt is mature enough to solve her own problems.

This is the time to act. 

Egypt needs courageous leadership

Egypt’s domestic situation is very volatile. People have, however, been able to keep the instability within peaceful parameters. In a country that is deeply divided, people have shown a great degree of political maturity. The point is to see leaders emerging, from both sides of the divide. Leaders that can be accepted as credible and perceived as strong enough to move the situation forward, to political dialogue. That’s the only option that can be accepted. And that is the kind of focus that the interventions coming from outside the country should have.

Everything else is too tragic to contemplate. 

Indifference is gaining ground in international affairs

Disguised indifference: this seems to be the prevailing attitude behind the international standing of big nations, the policy line they currently tend to follow. 

Europeans

The latest Eurobarometer survey results published yesterday show that the European citizens value above all the free movement of people, goods and services within the EU and the fact that peace has been kept in the Continent. 62% of those living in the Eurozone also believe that the common currency is a positive development. However, a large number (67%) think that their voice is not heard and counts for little when it comes to influencing European politics.

It is also curious to note that the rich Luxembourg feel very “European” (88% of people in the Grand Duchy say so) and the poor Greek have a very different opinion (only 44% feel as Europeans).  They are at the end of table. 

The baby and the UK economy

Looking at the TV pictures on the Royal Baby, and seeing the crowds and the fever in the national media, I can only say to myself that the British will never stop amazing me.  Then, I look at the Financial Times and find there a very serious assessment of the baby’s impact on the economy. Great Britain, indeed!

UK and the EU

As I prepared myself in order to write an opinion piece about the European Union’s prospects and priorities for next year or so I noticed that the UK Cabinet is, by far, the government that invests the largest amount of resources in reviewing the current performance of the EU institutions – particularly the Commission. Gradually, they are placing themselves in a position to have a critical influence on determining the agenda of the future, including the reform of the machinery and the role of the institutions. London will also be leading the devolution of power campaign that is inevitable in the near future. And Cameron and Hague are already placing some very subtle pressure on Berlin to have the Germans on their side. 

Political clarity in Portugal

Portugal goes to bed tonight with a clear mind: the President has decided that the current Prime Minister and his coalition government will remain in power and will have a chance to complete their mandate.

My hope is that the PM and the leader of the junior party in the coalition have learned one or two governance lessons and become more responsive to political dialogue with others, including the key opposition party – the Socialists – and business and labour leaders.