Contingency planning for a covid response

Some European states are battling a growing number of coronavirus-infected cases. This is again a major challenge and people are getting a bit fatalistic about it. They have little appetite for new lockdowns. For them, lockdown is synonymous of economic collapse, in addition to the constraints it means for their life routines. Governments themselves are not too keen on lockdowns either. But the perspectives for the next few months are most worrying. We are getting into the colder days and one can expect a serious increase in infections. This and the economic difficulties many will face do represent a completely new threat to social stability. It is necessary to draw contingency plans. Unfortunately, I do not see any government, or the European Commission for that matter, busy with such planning. They seem just as fatalistic as people are. That is certainly not the best way of discharging their policy responsibilities. Some of us must keep asking the leaders about the contingency measures they are preparing for. We know the answer so far – none! – but we should insist on the question.

A busy summer ahead of us

People in Europe are rapidly moving past the pandemic and looking forward to a normal summer. There are still a number of restrictions in place, in most of the countries, but everyone seems convinced that by the end of the month they will be lifted. Optimism is a good thing, particularly after a difficult and long period of deep constraints, not to mention death, sorrow and anxiety. It might be somehow unjustified, but as I think of it, I get convinced we need a good dose of hopefulness. It helps us to move forward.

Beyond the health dimensions, it is true that for a good number of people the prolonged crisis has meant a serious loss of income. For others, it dramatically means either unemployment or job insecurity. It also threatens the survival of many companies, with a serious impact on national wealth and public revenue, well beyond the employment dimensions. We must be aware of all this and promote the right social and economic policies that we believe are most appropriate to respond to the many forthcoming challenges. And as we write or speak about these things, we must find a way of mixing realism with optimism.

The decision the European Central Bank has just announced, adding another 600 billion euros to the pandemic-related bond purchasing mechanism, is at the same time very encouraging and a clear indication of the crisis we are in. Money in substantial amounts is critically important. But we must be very judicious about the priorities and wise, in terms of change. The money must be an instrument of recovery, I agree, but also, a powerful tool to promote change.

One of key priorities must be the reestablishment of the education system. I have seen how the primary and secondary school pupils are being affected by the closure of the schools. Their current virtual studies are little more than a lie or a joke. It is crucial to create all the conditions to re-open the next school year, in September, effectively. Not much is being talked about that, less still is happening in terms of action. Teachers and academic authorities must be assisted from now on to create the conditions for a rentrée that makes sense and brings everybody back to the reorganised classrooms.

In the end, as we approach the summer period, we realise that this should be a very intense period of work. We must recuperate what has been lost and look forward to a better horizon.

Greta, the Davos star

Greta Thunberg came out of this year’s Davos meeting as a giant, a fundamental voice in today’s world. Throughout the conference she behaved with decorum. She was her own person, no pretentiousness and no deviation from her core message, which is the best approach when you are leading a campaign. The clarity and intelligence of her speeches impressed me once more. And all that at the age of 17.

Too much despair

About 30 years ago, the famine in Ethiopia became a big story and millions of people responded to the call. Live Aid was launched and hundreds of millions of dollars were raised from individual donations by people from many countries. We lived a great storm of generosity.

In the last few days, the UN has launched a major humanitarian appeal to respond to dramatic famine situations in Yemen, Somalia and the Sahel. The UN stated this was a crisis of unheard dimensions.

The appeal got a few minutes of attention here and there.

The fact of the matter is that we are inundated with catastrophic news. And we have seen so many pictures of human suffering on our TV screens that we have become indifferent. We have “banalized” distress and death. And we might have also lost a good deal of our humanity. Or maybe, not. It could just be that we are deeply confused by the political horrors we are witnessing these days. We might just feel too powerless.

I wonder.

Combatting radicalisation

There is an EU Commissioner for Migration and Home Affairs. Among his responsibilities, I would underline the following: “identifying where the EU can make a real difference in fighting terrorism and radicalisation, with an emphasis on addressing the problem of foreign fighters”.

That sounds good.

And there is indeed a lot of work that has been done by different EU players and also in coordination with the member States during the last two years, after the approval on 15 January 2014 of a plan under the title of “Preventing Radicalisation to Terrorism and Violent Extremism: Strengthening the EU's Response”. The problem seems to be that the European public opinion is not aware of all this. The citizens have the impression that there isn´t really an approach to deal with radicalisation.

I think it is time to inform them. That´s another way of combatting the growing fear. 

Trident Juncture 2015

I am just back from NATO exercise Trident Juncture 2015.

I have been involved in it for the last 18 months or so. It has been a long process, with different phases of the scenario and the “response” of the international community.

The points here are the following: first, the “crisis” takes place far away from Europe, in an imaginary region to the South of our Continent; second, it is a “crisis response exercise” that follows a model requiring the approval of the UN Security Council; third, it is therefore clear that the exercise is not about defending the Alliance, it is not about collective defence, a concept that is well known; it is about helping a fictional country to address an aggression coming from a neighbouring state; fourth, it is not directly related to the current tensions in Europe or in the Middle East; it was planned well before President Putin´s new posture; and fifth, it was about training the commanders in the context of complex civilian environment.

My role was to play the UN Special Representative of the Secretary-general. It was about sharing many years of UN senior experience. And it is rewarding to see the interest it raised. 

Refugees and Migrants: Calling for a comprehensive view

The mass movement into the EU is a very complex matter. It calls for a comprehensive analysis and a multi-faceted response. The humanitarian assistance is one of the dimensions. In terms of urgency, it is certainly the priority. But the issue needs to be viewed from other perspectives as well. And that has to be done with great serenity and a strong sense of responsibility, both towards those coming in and those who belong here.  

A bit tired of spineless leaders...

With so many human crises and violent conflict around us, this is no time to be kind on opportunists and other unprincipled leaders. 

Our little world

Our part of the world is once again responding with indifference to the human tragedies that are taking place in Syria and Iraq and to the deepening of the security crisis around Yemen. As we remain unresponsive to so many other violations of basic human rights.

 Our leaders seem to be overwhelmed by our own domestic problems, the media is focusing on Le Pen, the UK forthcoming elections and the inability of the US local police to deal with the challenges of multi-ethnicity in their towns, and we, the little people, we are just trying to cope with the air control strikes and the taxes that keep falling on us. Or preparing for the next holiday.

These are indeed interesting times: the more we know about the world, and we know plenty nowadays, the more we close ourselves in our little circles. The information reaches us but we have learned to ignore it. 

One-stream approach to crisis management

We are in the middle of a series of discussions about a comprehensive approach to crisis response. 

We all recognize how important it is to take into account the different instruments of power available to deal with a major crisis. And then we design the response, the plan of operations, we decide on the means and the ways. And we focus just on the instrument of power that is familiar to us. One single angle to sort out a multi-dimensional problem.

It is question of comfort zone. We prefer to stay with the tools we are used to handle. 

The Security Council has to look at the Egyptian crisis soonest

I wrote yesterday’s post hours before the new dramatic developments in Egypt. At the end of my writing, I said “everything else is too tragic to contemplate”.

Today, we have to contemplate it. Many people – the exact figure remains unclear – were shot at when demonstrating in the streets of Cairo. The bullets came from the armed forces and the police side. In some cases, there was a deliberate intention to kill. Sniper fire is about “executing” people. And snipers are very extensively trained sharpshooters that can only be found, in a country like Egypt, within the official security apparatus.

It is time for the international community to come in and offer the bridges and platforms for dialogue that the Egyptians themselves might not be able to construct. Indeed, the Egyptian society seems too divided to be able to sit together on their own and agree together on a way out of the deep crisis and on their future. Key members of Security Council should step in now. The pressure for them to take up their international responsibility should come from all quarters. Without that pressure from the international public opinion, those countries will not act. They will continue to pretend that they are very busy elsewhere and that Egypt is mature enough to solve her own problems.

This is the time to act. 

Syria's opposition is too divided

The extreme fragmentation of the Syrian opposition has become their most critical weakness.  Just in the area next to the Golan Heights, a very small part of the territory, there are about nine independent armed groups, if we can believe a generally well-informed intelligence service operating in the neighbourhood. In this circumstance, it is quite clear that it is not in the interest of the Assad regime to negotiate with the rebels. The regime believes they can gradually crush each armed group, one by one, as they did today in the strategically important city of Al-Qusayr. Therefore, the official doctrine in Damascus is to bet on a military solution. What is the Western response to this? And the Security Council's?

Destabilising West Africa

The French President will visit Mali tomorrow. I have no idea of the messages he intends to put across. But there is one I would like to suggest. It concerns the funding of the African peacekeeping forces that are now deploying into the country. At this week’s donor conference $450 million have been pledged against a budget that is estimated at $1 billion. The gap is too big and needs to be filled. F. Hollande should emphasise that he wants to have an effective African deployment in Mali. He should call on donor countries to take the funding as a matter of their own national interest.

But there is more to this matter. If the African forces are not fully compensated that will spell big crises in their countries of origin, once they are back from the front. I have seen that in the 90s and during the last decade in West Africa. And I am afraid the same might happen again now. Soldiers that have become battle hardened and do not receive the allowances they have been promised are a major source of trouble and instability in most of West Africa. They become convinced that their generals and the politicians have kept the money given by the donors – they do not believe in funding gaps or in pledges that did not materialise – and they seek retribution.

I see this financial shortcoming as a major cause for further destabilisation in the region. It needs to be addressed. 

On the UN and conflict management

The United Nations is the most important actor in the areas of conflict management and peace building. It is also the key source of legitimacy for the international community. Furthermore, the UN has been able to develop a body of doctrine and the respective instruments that place the organization at the forefront of the international peace efforts.

But it is equally a machinery that is fragmented and complex, composed of entities that often are reluctant to accept effective coordination and tend to compete among themselves. The so-called “turf wars” are quite common at headquarters, with different agency personnel vying for visibility and resources, at the expense of coherence and impact.

 It is also a very decentralized organization, which is an advantage, as it brings the decision-making close to the potential beneficiaries. The decentralization gives a large degree of authority to the UN representatives in the field and the trend seems to be to further strengthen such authority.

For an external partner, the office of the UN field representative is the most appropriate entry point to explore opportunities for joint collaboration and coordinate efforts.