EU and the Ebola fever

On the same day leaders of the EU and Africa were meeting in Brussels, the people of Guinea, in West Africa, continued to dread the Ebola fever that has now killed close to a hundred people and is still out of control. The government in Conakry has not enough capacity to stop this epidemic. The health services, with the help of some international NGOs, are just overwhelmed. And the risks of contagion across the border into Sierra Leone and Liberia are very real.

But there has been no voice in the leading circles of Europe to raise the issue and call for an urgent, large scale and highly specialised assistance to be sent to Guinea and the neighbours, to help them to effectively respond to a disease that kills close to 95 people on every 100 that can infected. 

NATO´s new position needs to be taken seriously

NATO´s foreign ministers met today on Ukraine, Russia and the security along the Eastern borders of the Alliance. The decisions taken need to be taken with great attention. They combine a mixture of political measures with military preparedness and operations. They represent, in many ways, a turning point, after trying for two decades to build a constructive partnership with Russia.

We should not conclude that the post-Cold War period is now defunct. However, we should not underestimate the degree of potential threat the ministers perceive as coming from the East. To manage to reach a unanimous position on this matter says plenty of unsaid things about the seriousness of the situation. The intention had been, up to now, to de-escalate. Today´s conclusions do escalate the tension. They certainly have powerful reasons to believe that this is the right course of action at this stage. 

Time to re-engage Erdogan

Erdogan´s party has added another electoral victory to its prize list. A large number of the voters have gone for stability and economic growth, the two flags associated with the Prime Minister’s leadership. One has to respect the Turkish people´s choice.

But Erdogan has also to realise that those who have voted against him, and they are more than half of the population, also call for respect. They are no traitors. They just happen to be young, better educated, urban based, and people that value the right to have a different opinion about the governance of Turkey. They also aspire for a government that is ready to effectively fight corruption and power abuse.

The fear is that Erdogan will read into the results a license to be harder on the opponents.

That´s why the leaders of the EU have to re-open the political dialogue with him. That´s the way to a more tolerant leadership in Turkey. 

The demise of traditional parties is now a serious prospect

The French have decided to vote against the government candidates on today´s local elections. But above all, they have decided to abstain from voting. Over 16 million said no by keeping themselves far away from the polling stations. Basically, this shows that the traditional parties can no longer be seen as the political vehicles people´s aspirations. The citizens, all over the place, in France and elsewhere in Europe, are deeply dissatisfied with the way professional politicians behave.

That´s probably the reason why they have elected, in Slovakia, an outsider to be the country´s next president. The prime-minister, a long standing figure in national politics, was just defeat by a businessman.

On this same day, the British media has printed the results of the latest opinion survey. The Labour Party is just one percentage point ahead the governing Conservatives. This happens notwithstanding the very erratic policies the Conservative government – the Tories – have tried to implement, with less than convincing results, during the last three years. People in Britain are also running away from the old parties. Unfortunately they are moving their support to UKIP, the Independence Party of Nigel Farage, a good speaker who manages to hide some of his racist ideas behind some demagogic policies. UKIP is rapidly becoming the third force in British politics. This is a major feat because the system there is constructed in such a way that it gives very little chances to any alternative to Labour and Tory parties. If the British voter is going UKIP that shows how discontent she or he is with the current system.

And more examples could be found throughout the EU. 

No comprehensive approach at the EU

My first meeting of the day was spent listening to a general, who has recently served in a mission, complaining about the incompetence of the officials at EU External Action Service (EEAS), and the superficiality that defines the work of EU Political and Security Committee. He was particularly bitter about the lack of understanding of the comprehensive approach concept. Most of the officials still see things in silos, and have no overall vision on how to bring together the different means available within the EU and its political, developmental, humanitarian and security pillars. In addition, the civilian and diplomatic officials have very little interest in listening to the military and police sides. When they do it, they seem not to be listening. It is just a ritual that they have to go through. 

Ashton and the hesitant EU states

Today Baroness Ashton, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy has issued a statement on “the extremely grave situation in the Central African Republic”. The title says everything. Or maybe, almost everything.

The statement recognises that the situation has been deteriorating very seriously since the beginning of this week. The French troops and the African military mission are just overwhelmed by the increasing violence, the widespread attacks against Muslims, and the generalised chaos in a country that has been pretty chaotic for a bit of time now.

The main addressees of this declaration are the EU states themselves. They have been very reluctant in fielding a peace mission in support of those already on the ground. The EU governments have invented all kinds of excuses to delay the deployment of the forces. Some of these forces are ready to go but their political masters prefer to say that they need additional training, just as a way of procrastinating.

It is true that CAR is far away. One can even say that Libya is much closer and is still in disarray and the Europeans do very little to help this neighbour. There is a big difference though. Libya is not witnessing a genocide-type of conflict. There the issue is more about strengthening the state authority.

I can understand the reluctance on the European side when it comes to sending troops to address a law and order challenge. Troops are not policemen. They are supposed to deal with military threats. But if you do not have enough gendarmes and special police forces to deploy, you go for the military solution as stop-gap approach. It is either that or more innocent civilians being simply massacred.

For those like me who have spent a few years dealing with the country and the region, the short term response – to stop the violence – does not seem too difficult and certainly it would not require a very large force.

It calls however for a commitment on the EU side that is now clearly absent. And Mrs Ashton cannot state it with the same clarity I can. But she means it.

Egypt: unacceptable court proceedings

Let me be clear. Kangaroo courts and irrational judgments like the ones now taking place in Egypt are simply unacceptable. The way hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood sympathizers and activists have been sentenced – most of them to death – has to be denounced as totally inappropriate in any country today. It is just absurdly infamous and nothing can justify that type of processes. Each trial is a violation of the most basic human rights

I realise the Egyptian society is now deeply divided. But it cannot be guided by blind hate. It has, on the contrary, to find ways to bring people together. There is no way one segment of society is going to be able to annihilate the opposing segment. They have to compromise and live together.

I am very surprised by the Western leaders´ silence. I cannot understand why the EU and the US are not loud and clear about these medieval approach to governance in Egypt. 

French ideas

The outcome of the first round of France´s local elections calls for a serious refection about the mood among ordinary voters. Many people, in France and other parts of Europe, are just tired of traditional political parties. As they are also tired of the old clichés about left and right. They want jobs, security and responsible, honest politicians. That should be the agenda. But without extremist ideas, xenophobic prejudice and nostalgia for a world that is now past. We live in Europe, in a community of nations, we have to build how future on that fact, not against it. 

Cool down, gentlemen!

The analysis available this evening does recommend a cooling down of the rhetoric. The messages have been pretty well received in Moscow, they got the picture, which is of clear condemnation, and I think that should be enough for the time being. It is important to be perceived as firm, true. That´s now understood in the Kremlin. But it is also necessary to avoid an escalation of words. Many conflicts have started because the wrong words have been said and misunderstood. As we live in dangerous times, it is important to avoid too many words, too many inflammatory statements or declarations that might create anxiety, confusion and destabilisation of the economic setup, which is very fragile. 

Moving North

In the last few days, the number of illegal emigrants that have tried to cross the Mediterranean Sea to reach Italy and the EU has increased dramatically. This flow shows that spring has arrived and the waters are much calmer. It also shows that the trend to migrate to Europe through North Africa, particularly through Libya, has not gone down, notwithstanding the lack of suitable jobs in our part of the world. But for a young man from Niger or Senegal, from Pakistan or Bangladesh, the dream is clear: to come and work in Europe is the ambition.

Recently I was trying to discourage someone from getting into this kind of adventure. Based in Dakar, a city that has gone poorer and overcrowded during the last fifteen years or so, the young fellow couldn´t believe me when I told him that there is no job for a bricklayer in today´s Europe. For him and his friends the truth is very simple: where they live today there is no future. And if you are a person full of energy you just keep moving.