Kerry and Netanyahu

The Israeli government has no love lost for John Kerry. Benjamin Netanyahu and his inner circle are deeply irritated by Kerry´s continued efforts to bring peace to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. They let that displeasure be known through informal channels. When they meet the US Secretary of State they seem to be willing to play the diplomatic game. But they are not. And that´s why they have cancelled the release of the last batch of Palestinian prisoners that should have found their freedom days ago. More. They have decided to build extra settlements -700 new homes – in occupied land in the East Jerusalem area.

Israel top leaders believe they can only count on their own means to protect their country. They see the emergence of a Palestinian State as a serious threat to their own security. They prefer the current status quo. But the present arrangement has no real future. It is a major source of conflict a very serious violation of basic principles of international law. Sooner or later, both sides will have to find a more accommodating solution. The ball, however, is more on the Israeli camp than on the other side. This is a debate the Israelis should have among themselves. 

Rwanda and the Central African Republic

On this anniversary day, twenty years after the beginning of genocide in Rwanda, as we remember those terrible events and the hundreds of thousands of victims, we seem to forget that we have a similar situation in the Central African Republic. It is true the numbers are not as high, but the hatred between communities and the killing of innocents, of one´s neighbours, just because they look a bit different or dress in a way that shows their religious beliefs, are very similar to what happened in Rwanda.  And once again, we prefer to remember the past and ignore the deep challenges of the present.

Afghan elections: lets keep them clean

We should look at today´s presidential elections from a positive perspective. The news is good indeed. The participation rate, estimated at 58%, is very significant in a country that is still confronted with major security threats. It was encouraging to see long lines of men and women waiting their turn to vote. It is true that the logistics were not exemplary. In many places they could even be said to be messy. But flaws were corrected throughout the day and people could eventually vote.

Among the eight candidates, the two leading hopefuls, Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani, are very reasonable people. Any of them could be a good leader for the country.

The point is to keep the credibility of the elections. The last ones, in 2009, were too fraudulent. Hamid Karzai was elected then in a manner that made his tenure very fragile and compromised his capacity to fully exercise the democratic authority that was key for a rapid transition to a more legitimate government. He spent his last mandate just trying to balance the interests of very powerful allies, without having the legitimacy to go beyond that.

Karzai will however be reminded as the leader that carried the nation through many difficult years, close to thirteen. The last deed everyone expects from him is very simple: keep the current electoral process clean, do not interfere. His candidate –apparently it is Zalmai Rassoul – might not make it to the second round. But Karzai should make it to the good books of the Afghan history. 

Syria

Syria´s crisis has now disappeared from the screens. It has joined the dramatic roll that lists all the long-lasting tragedies that the world can´t resolve and therefore got accustomed to. We are very good at accepting “as normal” situations that are well beyond what should be morally accepted. The point here is to say no to that aptitude. And bring Syria back to the forefront of the international agenda. Lest we forget, as they say. 

European peace matters

It would be a mistake to underestimate the political influence of those in the West that think that it is time to teach the big neighbour a lesson. At the end of the Cold War, many people lost centre stage as their specialised skills were no longer in demand. They seem to be back now and with a strong sense of opportunity. They want to seize the occasion. And things can then go pretty far. More than ever, one should be aware of the different interests at play, on every side. And fight for common sense to be again the guiding principle. Leadership here means to be brave enough to contain a crisis that can become out of control. 

EU and the Ebola fever

On the same day leaders of the EU and Africa were meeting in Brussels, the people of Guinea, in West Africa, continued to dread the Ebola fever that has now killed close to a hundred people and is still out of control. The government in Conakry has not enough capacity to stop this epidemic. The health services, with the help of some international NGOs, are just overwhelmed. And the risks of contagion across the border into Sierra Leone and Liberia are very real.

But there has been no voice in the leading circles of Europe to raise the issue and call for an urgent, large scale and highly specialised assistance to be sent to Guinea and the neighbours, to help them to effectively respond to a disease that kills close to 95 people on every 100 that can infected. 

NATO´s new position needs to be taken seriously

NATO´s foreign ministers met today on Ukraine, Russia and the security along the Eastern borders of the Alliance. The decisions taken need to be taken with great attention. They combine a mixture of political measures with military preparedness and operations. They represent, in many ways, a turning point, after trying for two decades to build a constructive partnership with Russia.

We should not conclude that the post-Cold War period is now defunct. However, we should not underestimate the degree of potential threat the ministers perceive as coming from the East. To manage to reach a unanimous position on this matter says plenty of unsaid things about the seriousness of the situation. The intention had been, up to now, to de-escalate. Today´s conclusions do escalate the tension. They certainly have powerful reasons to believe that this is the right course of action at this stage. 

Time to re-engage Erdogan

Erdogan´s party has added another electoral victory to its prize list. A large number of the voters have gone for stability and economic growth, the two flags associated with the Prime Minister’s leadership. One has to respect the Turkish people´s choice.

But Erdogan has also to realise that those who have voted against him, and they are more than half of the population, also call for respect. They are no traitors. They just happen to be young, better educated, urban based, and people that value the right to have a different opinion about the governance of Turkey. They also aspire for a government that is ready to effectively fight corruption and power abuse.

The fear is that Erdogan will read into the results a license to be harder on the opponents.

That´s why the leaders of the EU have to re-open the political dialogue with him. That´s the way to a more tolerant leadership in Turkey. 

The demise of traditional parties is now a serious prospect

The French have decided to vote against the government candidates on today´s local elections. But above all, they have decided to abstain from voting. Over 16 million said no by keeping themselves far away from the polling stations. Basically, this shows that the traditional parties can no longer be seen as the political vehicles people´s aspirations. The citizens, all over the place, in France and elsewhere in Europe, are deeply dissatisfied with the way professional politicians behave.

That´s probably the reason why they have elected, in Slovakia, an outsider to be the country´s next president. The prime-minister, a long standing figure in national politics, was just defeat by a businessman.

On this same day, the British media has printed the results of the latest opinion survey. The Labour Party is just one percentage point ahead the governing Conservatives. This happens notwithstanding the very erratic policies the Conservative government – the Tories – have tried to implement, with less than convincing results, during the last three years. People in Britain are also running away from the old parties. Unfortunately they are moving their support to UKIP, the Independence Party of Nigel Farage, a good speaker who manages to hide some of his racist ideas behind some demagogic policies. UKIP is rapidly becoming the third force in British politics. This is a major feat because the system there is constructed in such a way that it gives very little chances to any alternative to Labour and Tory parties. If the British voter is going UKIP that shows how discontent she or he is with the current system.

And more examples could be found throughout the EU. 

No comprehensive approach at the EU

My first meeting of the day was spent listening to a general, who has recently served in a mission, complaining about the incompetence of the officials at EU External Action Service (EEAS), and the superficiality that defines the work of EU Political and Security Committee. He was particularly bitter about the lack of understanding of the comprehensive approach concept. Most of the officials still see things in silos, and have no overall vision on how to bring together the different means available within the EU and its political, developmental, humanitarian and security pillars. In addition, the civilian and diplomatic officials have very little interest in listening to the military and police sides. When they do it, they seem not to be listening. It is just a ritual that they have to go through.