Ukraine and the financial markets

The international financial markets seem to be less nervous about the crisis in Ukraine. This is a bit surprising at a time when nobody knows what could happen next in the Eastern regions of the country.

My reading is that they take the new situation, including the potential separation of those lands from the rest of Ukraine, as a fait accompli, something that will happen in any case. The people behind the key financial funds, those who define the trends, have now had enough time to move moneys around and adjust to the new game in Eastern Europe. 

Africa´s Green Revolution

Africa needs a Green Revolution: a major transformation of the agricultural sector. The benefits of enabling this are multiple. Not only can this contribute to addressing the fuel deficit by offering a means to diversify and localize the production of fuel. It will also enhance food security and offers a wide range of livelihood opportunities to move poor subsistence-based farmers and their families out of poverty and into greater economic security. Here too, then, there is a need for a radical re-think: looking at agriculture as a potentially profitable business opportunity, not simply as an aid or development challenge that is only oriented to poverty mitigation.

Agricultural transformation in Africa

The Africa Progress Report 2014 has just been published and I recommend its reading. It is the flagship annual publication of the Geneva-based Africa Progress Panel (APP), a non-governmental institution that is led by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan. APP is a key advocate for Africa´s inclusive and sustainable development.

This year´s report is about food and nutrition security. It is about farming and fishing with the poor at the centre of the policies.

And I quote from the report:

“Agriculture must be at the heart that transformation. Most Africans, including the vast majority of Africa’s poor, continue to live and work in rural areas, principally as smallholder farmers. In the absence of a flourishing agricultural sector, the majority of Africans will be cut adrift from the rising tide of prosperity.”

#BringBackOurGirls

The international campaign #BringBackOurGirls has had some impact on the Nigerian government. The President is finally moving. For about three weeks – and this bog has been one of the very first to call the attention to the terrible fate the school girls kidnapped by the Boko Haram terrorists were in – the country´s leadership tried to sweep the issue under the carpet. Now the outcry is too big to be ignored.

But a key question remains: how to explain the failure to protect these school children and the many civilians in the North-Eastern part of the country that are under constant threat? How can we understand this failure in a country that has a large army, good special forces and good intelligence? Who is giving a chance to Boko Haram to commit the horrendous crimes that are now their trademark? Who are the political backers of the terrorists and why? 

Europe´s future requires cooperation among the states

Le Monde printed this afternoon with tomorrow´s date has a very important opinion editorial by François Hollande about Europe´s future. The French President´s views are very clear: the continuation of the common European project means peace and will bring prosperity; on the contrary, the ultra-nationalism and the return to national borders carries with it the seeds of conflict among the different European nations; it is also a serious menace to the continuation of the common currency, which means a return to devalued and 

unstable national currencies; it is a move back to poverty and underdeveloped economies.

And the President shows he is very concerned with the current trends that run against Europe. The project cannot move if the people are not in support. And he sees that we are facing a serious risk that can easily undermine the survival of a joint aspiration and shared interests. He sees, with great concern, a continuing deterioration of the popular support to the Euro and the EU.

It is a good text. It should certainly be made available in other languages besides French. In the current atmosphere, when the nationalists are getting ground, it is critical to present a different view.

It is actually a very simple, and also very correct view. Europe needs to unite and cooperate better among its member states if it still aspires to play a role in the global world we live in. That´s the only reasonable way forward. The rest is just demagoguery. 

Lisbon and the cruise ships

Lisbon is now a major stop in the itinerary of the cruise ships that navigate this corner of Europe. At this time of the year, it is usual to see two or three big vessels by the tourist harbour. Today they were six, all very large.

This daily influx of visitors is bringing some much need vitality to the centre of the city, lots of people with some euros to spend. It also gives the key monumental areas a strong sense of economic dynamism. And that is deeply appreciated, particularly at a time when many Portuguese try to move out of a morose approach to the crisis and be able to access new sources of income. 

The UN in South Sudan needs teeth

John Kerry, who was visiting Luanda today, has shown he is deeply concerned with the crisis situation in South Sudan. The civil war is going on. It is even getting more violent, now that talks about talks between the two main opposing parties are being aired. For the Americans, South Sudan is important. The country has a large interest group in the US, particularly amongst the Christian fundamentalists. That´s politically relevant.

The UN mission in South Sudan – UNMISS – has been politically weak. And it has also lacked the strength and the will to have a more robust security role. It is time for the Americans to raise that matter with the UN Secretary-General. And to help the SG to find the right response to the weaknesses. It is not good for the UN´s image and work in the region to been seen as unable to have a stronger and clearer stance on the South Sudanese crisis. 

A paralyzed Council

The UN Security Council has finally “unanimously” adopted another Resolution. On 28 April. Unfortunately, it is not on Ukraine, not even on Syria. It might however show that the Council is still alive.

The Resolution 2151 (2014) is on Security Sector Reform, the role of the UN in its implementation and the need for national ownership of the process.

I read it. It adds nothing to the debate. It states in grandiose terms what the UN missions have been performing for the last eight years or so.

Is the Security Council becoming a bit like a debating society?

Odessa and OSCE

Odessa in Southern Ukraine is a very symbolic city. It means a lot for many people in that part of the world. It has a very rich history as well.

Today´s events, which led to many deaths of civilians on the pro-Russian side, could therefore be a turning point in the national crisis Ukraine is engulfed. They could give way to a serious escalation of the confrontations.

They are certainly an important development. But they cannot justify any armed intervention from outside the country. They call though for a deeper political involvement of OSCE.

The way forward is not very easy. It goes however through the deployment of a much larger contingent of OSCE observers and a renewed political initiative in Vienna where OSCE headquarters are based.

The UN Security Council cannot be of help. OSCE can. But it needs to be much bolder and much more assertive in terms of the European public opinion. 

May Day 2014

On this May Day, my point is very simple. It is about labour in a global world economy. Leaders should make globalization, which is an inescapable feature of present times, a positive factor for progress and transformation. They should not exploit the fears linked to globalization and use it as a flag to win votes from the working class. Globalization opens opportunities and it should be taken advantage of. People should be prepared and skills should be developed for a world without too many trade barriers. And EU should be at the vanguard of such an approach.