Dilma´s political future is at stake

Dilma Rousseff, Brazil´s head of State, is fighting for her political future.

The second round of the presidential elections will take place in about eleven days, on October 26. The odds are playing against Dilma. Her party has been in power for the last twelve years. It is strongly embedded in the administrative apparatus and it has also a solid support in the poorer segments of the country. But at a time of economic slowdown, as it is today the case in Brazil, when public resources have become scarcer, it is easy to put the blame on the government and vote against those in power. On top of that, large sectors of the urban and better educated Brazilians are today against Dilma´s party and her control of the administrative machinery. They are basically afraid of Dilma´s interventionist policies, of new taxes, and they want change.

In many ways, the Brazilian society is today much polarised. And less solidary. Class plays a defining role. And individualism, personal success, is also a common trait in a country that prides itself for its self-made men and women. Many do not understand the social policies Dilma´s party has implemented in favour of the poor.

All that runs objectively against a candidate that is identified with a strong option for a more redistributive social policy.

I am afraid Dilma might be the loser at the end of the day, on the 26^th. 

Turkey and its approach to the Islamic State bandits

Just a very simple question: what is Turkey doing to fight the terrorists that call themselves the Islamic State? The Turkish government is indeed very difficult to understand. 

Near Lisbon there is plenty to visit

As I drove around the greater Lisbon area I came to the conclusion that there are still many places near the Portuguese capital that are of great interest for a visitor. They should be better talked about. Sintra and Cascais are well known. They attract a good number of foreign visitors.  But there are other places, such as Ericeira by the sea or Mafra and its convent and rural landscapes that good be better publicised. Including for their cuisine and the variety of the landscapes.

Tourism is very much about the way you talk about your region. It is also about making sure you offer quality at a reasonable price. And it is nowadays, during the off-season, about being able to catch the attention of the retirees from elsewhere. They are a very important segment of the market during the low season. Things need to be organised to cater for their interests. 

Argentinian blues...

Argentina is again in the midst of economic and financial chaos. People are desperate and the country seems to be directionless.

I raised the issue this morning as part of my regular discussions with some people at the centre of European decision making. I was told, in very direct and brief words, that Argentina matters very little in international affairs. If they have a problem – and they do have some very serious ones, I thought to myself –then it is up to them to sort them out.

I believe that´s what people call internationalist realism…

Hong Kong is different

The Hong Kong mass demonstrations show once again that people cherish their freedom once they have been able to acquire it. Freedom is one of the top aspirations of humankind.

The political pact that underwrites stability and state control in China is based on growing well-being for the people. The Chinese accept at this stage, not always with a warm heart, that their liberty be curtailed as long as the government keeps the economic expansion and is in a position to augment the population´s purchasing power.

In Hong Kong, the standard of living is much higher than in Mainland China. Therefore, that part of the pact has very attraction. People are already there, they are wealthy. But they have also enjoyed political freedom. And they do not want to lose it. Once you have tasted it you want to keep it.

Furthermore, the people of Hong Kong have a serious dislike for the Mainlanders. They look at their fellow compatriots from Mainland China with a deep, open feeling of superiority. Hong Kong citizens complaint about the other Chinese by saying they are greedy, dishonest, uneducated and too narrow-minded. That feeling is quite perceptible when you talk to the people in Hong Kong. If you tell them that you are planning to visit the Mainland, as I did, they will keep warning you about the cheating you might be subject to once you have crossed the border.

The Beijing authorities know they cannot send the army to deal with the street protests in Hong Kong. They would like the demonstrators to take a false step and try to invade the administrative buildings in the city. But that seems not to be the case. So, Beijing will wait. They know that the streets will get tired and the demonstrations will end up by fading away. That will probably be the case.

But Beijing also knows that the people of Hong Kong do not want the kind of political dispensation that prevails in the Mainland. And that´s a very strong message. 

An Indian face in Europe´s politics

The Portuguese Socialist Party has a new leader: António Costa, the current mayor of Lisbon. On Sunday he won the party´s nomination by an overwhelming majority of the votes. He was running against the outgoing Secretary-General of the party, António José Seguro, and received the support of more than two-thirds of the voters. The mandate is clear. And the level of hope invested on him as well.

On the father´s side, António Costa has his family roots in Goa, India. His election places him in a very good position to be the next Prime-minister of Portugal, by next year´s autumn. To have a Prime-minister that is of Indian origin shows how much Portugal and Europe´s ethnicity mix has changed and keeps changing. This is the new Europe, built on old nations and new immigrants. This is also a Europe that has to adjust to a more globalised world.

In my opinion it is good news to open up. We Europeans need to have a much broader view of ourselves and of our position in the affairs of the world. It is not just about being more tolerant. It is also about getting a better grasp about the world´s diversity and how to insert ourselves in an international reality that has changed and will continue to change at a very high speed. 

More on leadership

I have spent the last days reflecting about political leadership in the European context. There is a strong feeling, in many quarters, that leadership is currently in short supply. I am not sure. What seems to be missing is wise political leadership combined with courage to say it as it is. A leader cannot be just the echo of popular opinions. We tend to confuse representativeness and democracy with being like everybody else. The representative of the people brings something else to the common views. His or her role is to provide balance to the views expressed by the loudest members of society, to make the synthesis of the majority opinion and at the same time combining it with the protection of the minority opinion. That is about guiding and building confidence. 

Dilma and Marina

The forthcoming presidential elections in Brazil, scheduled for 5 October with a second round taking place on 26^th, if necessary, should be studied with great attention by those who are particularly interested in leadership issues.

 Dilma Rousseff, the incumbent, is in a tight battle against Marina Silva, an opposition candidate that might bring together the social-democrats and the centre-right. Actually, in the current Brazilian spectrum, it is not easy to talk about left and right politics as the main candidates have founded their campaigns on broad alliances that cover a good number of parties and movements. But that´s not my point at present. The point is about the personalities and the way the two leading ladies conduct their election campaigns. They have two different styles, both very remarkable. There is a lot to be learned from them in terms of political leadership in a huge and very diverse country.

DIlma has against her the fact that her party has been in power for 12 years and that many would like to see a change of direction in the way politics are conducted. The events of the last 14 months, with mass demonstrations and many opposing the way public money has been spent on prestige projects, or embezzled by corrupt individuals in positions of power, run against Dilma´s re-election. She has however many positive trump cards. Would they be enough? Would they be played in the appropriate manner?

Marina, on the other side, represents a bit of fresh air, but with many contradictions in terms of her political positions. She projects however a more caring image and that plays in her favour. It also plays for her the fact that she comes from very humble roots and the simplicity of her discourse. She might be the next president of Brazil. 

Targeting IS

The air campaign against the Islamic State, as those primitive extremists are now called, is basically about good targeting. Target definition is a labour-intensive, time demanding, costly exercise. It results of the combination of a large variety of information-gathering skills, related to human and technological intelligence activities. Very few countries are in a position to do that well. That´s an area where the EU armies need to acquire additional skills and means.

Then, there is the very delicate moment of target approval. Once the potential target has been identified, the action against that target needs to be approved by the right level of authority. This has to be done with great care, to avoid errors and collateral damage.

But all this is very effective in today´s world. This is the new way of neutralising real dangerous enemies. In the current circumstances, the message to the IS fellows is that they will be routed. There is the political will and the necessary coalition to do it. Those at the forefront of the air campaign mean business.

There is another message, this one for the young people in the EU that are planning to join the radicals in the Middle East. If you go, your chances are very limited. Either you will be caught when one of the targets is destroyed or you will be, like many others, killed in a hot fight with other rival groups out there. If you survive both situations, there will be a team of policemen waiting for you in Europe when you come back from Syria or Iraq. Therefore, be wise, keep quiet and do not go. To adhere to the extremism of IS has no future for you.

One-stream approach to crisis management

We are in the middle of a series of discussions about a comprehensive approach to crisis response. 

We all recognize how important it is to take into account the different instruments of power available to deal with a major crisis. And then we design the response, the plan of operations, we decide on the means and the ways. And we focus just on the instrument of power that is familiar to us. One single angle to sort out a multi-dimensional problem.

It is question of comfort zone. We prefer to stay with the tools we are used to handle.