Greater risk of confrontation

The seizure by Belgium and France of Russian assets, following a court order of yesterday, is a new dangerous step towards conflict escalation.

I am not saying, let me be clear, that those countries should not implement the court order, which is by the way a response to the illegal confiscation of Youkos´s corporate assets by the Moscow authorities a decade ago. What I am witnessing, with great concern, is an acceleration of the tension between Russia and the West. And experience shows that a greater level of confrontation can lead to a mishap or a miscalculation and become an open clash.

That would be a disaster. But as things keep going these days, one cannot ignore the risks. 

Leadership requires a great amount of patience

Be patient: that´s one of the most important qualities of good leadership. It does not prevent you from fighting for your views but you do it with resolve, a strong sense of opportunity and in an elevated manner. Or, determination, timing and posture are critical for any successful venture.

I recognise it is not easy to be patient. Therefore, you have to keep repeating it to yourself all the time. And in particular, when you are under pressure.

TTIP should be the object of an honest debate

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) – a potential free trade between the EU and the US – is the new rallying flag of all those in Europe who seriously dislike the Americans. As such, it is difficult to find objective assessments on the possible impact – positive and negative – of such an accord.

People attack the likely agreement from a blind position, and in many cases because that´s what they think their intellectual bedfellows expect from a leftist approach.

That´s a pity, as the TTIP is a matter that is too serious to be treated just based on anti-Americanism and on deceitful assumptions about what it means to be on the political Left.  

Greece: calling a spade a spade

Today´s prevailing position on Greece´s fate, in the European political and financial circles that have power, was rather clear: it´s time to call a spade a spade.

This basically means, as I see it, that those leading circles have come to the conclusion that the Greek situation has reached a decisive point. And the decision is to let Greece go its own way. It makes no sense to advocate for a solution that the other side does not accept.

I tend to agree. Default is painful but it is not the end of the road. Argentina and other countries have gone through that experience. Even California did. Default can actually be the beginning of a new cycle.

On the markets side, it looks as if the default possibility is now perceived as inevitable but with a manageable impact.

In the end, those who will be seriously affected are the poor people in the streets and villages of Greece. Unfortunately it´s always like that.

Bashir´s travels

Omar al-Bashir is an old desert snake. He is pretty strategic and astute. And he has also been a key player against the interests of the UN and its image, including in the peacekeeping area.

Once more he has managed to strike another blow against the prestige of the UN. In this case, the loser is the International Criminal Court.

But it is also the South African government. The authorities were caught in a dreadful dilemma: either to arrest Bashir and risk a serious row with Sudan and many other African governments; or let him leave South Africa, notwithstanding the court order, and risk further criticism at home.

They opted for the let-go option. I think in the end that was the only reasonable decision they could take. Politics is about deciding and the lesser evil is quite often the better decision. Now they should have the courage to explain the decision. Politics is also about telling the story in a way that makes sense and considers public opinion as a very serious issue. 

On mass migrations once again

Mass migrations are a new feature in the international relations list of collective challenges. They will remain in the list for a long time. As such, they require a comprehensive response and the engagement of all the key players, including the EU States and Africa.

 We, in Europe, cannot see the matter as an Italian or Greek problem, we cannot keep a country-based perspective. This must be a shared problem. We should also avoid a simplification of the matter and say this will be solved when the Libyan crisis is over or the day Niger and other countries in the Sahel have a better control of their borders.

We should also realise that the responses can only be partial, as the pressure to move North will continue for a very long time.

But that does not prevent us from taking action now. People crossing into Europe have to be properly screened. Those who have genuine reasons to apply for asylum should be processed fast and given a chance to start a new life in one of the EU countries. Everybody else should be treated with greater scrutiny, including their work skills. In the end, most of them would have to be repatriated. 

On Africa´s future

I have worked in Africa and on African affairs since 1978. I have seen many positive changes and also many crises. 

Based on my experience and taking into account key trends such as the very high rate of population growth and the explosive urbanization that defines many country situations, I can see major challenges ahead. 

For Africa to be a land of opportunities it has first to address the basic needs of the Africans, from education to health, from jobs to energy. And therefore create the opportunities for its peoples. This would require much better governance, more democracy and greater respect for human rights as well as a new type of international cooperation with Africa, including a large number of economic investments to be made by the private sector. 

Africa´s security: a collective and national effort

The issues of national and people´s security remain a core problem for several African States. 

Boko Haram is the most visible example of a country´s weak security systems. Nigeria has large military and police forces and services. It has been one the most assiduous participant in UN peacekeeping operations. But when challenged by a domestic group of extremists and fanatics it became obvious that big numbers do not mean effectiveness. 

Nigeria and many other countries will have to reform the armed forces and ensure a better coordination between the military and the police services. The reform includes a greater emphasis on professionalism, discipline, good management of the resources and better links with the citizens.

 Better security is also related to a regional response. The cooperation within the framework of the African Union and the Regional Economic Communities calls for an acceleration of the current efforts and a greater commitment to collective defence. 

Immigration: a political vacuum of collective European irresponsibility

The numbers keep adding every day. They also make it obvious that there is no European strategy to deal with the migrant flows across the Mediterranean Sea. The navy ships do their job, rescue the poor souls at sea and bring them to the shores. And after that, there is an empty policy space – a political vacuum of collective European irresponsibility – with everybody else hoping the Italians will take care of the immense problem. 

Bilderberg meeting: big egos and plenty of smoke

The annual meeting of Bilderberg “club” starts tomorrow. During three days pretty influential people from the global corporate world will sit together with politicians, opinion-makers and some very senior security service masters to review some of the megatrends – as they call the key challenges of today´s world.

The leader of this initiative is the current boss of AXA, the major international insurance company. He is a well-connected Frenchman.

This is a very secretive conference. Journalists are not allowed in as such. A couple of them will be there but as invitees, in their capacity as leading opinion-makers. They will be there because their writings –opinion columns – do influence a good number of decision makers. Secrecy leads to suspicion. Some people have called the Bilderberg crowd –about 120 to 150 of them every year –the real masters of the universe, the key plotters in terms of the next world events.

Such label is an exaggeration. Many of those in attendance have real power, in their own circles, others have prestige but little power left in their guns –they belong to the category one calls the “has been”. Obviously, there are many very powerful people outside this “club”.

Bilderberg is one of several power meetings. It is above all a networking exercise. It is of course of particular importance when compared with other similar networking opportunities – like Davos –because the number of Bilderberg participants is smaller and therefore the interaction and the bonds among them have a chance of being much more intense.

In the end, there is a lot of smoke and mystery, but very little movement beyond the private interests of the companies represented and the group therapy it provides to people with big egos.